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I'll give a GM a pass on lousy picks. That game is a gamblers throw of some sort, even at it's best.
But bad trades eat the meat off the team bone.
Terrible trades usually involve getting vets for talented youth. Usually when you trade good veterans you're playing from behind. You have an ugly contract, no hope for the next couple of years or a guy at maximum value because other teams are in the playoff hunt.
I can't fault those trades, generally. The Fister swap doesn't really fit here, because he was still cost-controlled AND good. Trading Lee for Smoak? That's an understandable swap, even though I cringe when Smoak comes up. Lee wasn't going to be ours for ever and we weren't going to be great while he was here. Z appraised Smoak wrong, but so did nearly all of baseball. It seems like everybody thought (except maybe Texas? Would be interesting to know their internal analysis of Smoak) he was "Big Country," with a great eye and 30 double/30 tater pop. Remember, Z personally chose him over Montero in that swap, and everybody was gaga over Montero's bat.
OK, we got Kotchman-lite instead of "Big Country," but I'm not whining about the effort. It was a VERY reasonable swap at the time.
Montero for Pineda? A bit more dicey, perhaps.....but a classic trade of arm for bat. Hasn't really worked out for either team, but it was a neat roll of the dice.
Z did fine in those efforts.
But GM's who swap out the farm for two years of grizzle better get a WS appearance out of it. Bring Lee for Walker+ and you better get the payoff. If you don't, then I think those are the swaps you can clearly blame the GM for.
Proceed cautiously in those areas. A GM has to compete today (or shortly) but can't decimate the farm to do it.
I'm a believer in talent, not in perfect grooming. This is baseball after all, not the Westminster Kennel Club. Perfect grooming pays off there. Raw talent pays off here. Find that, field it, trust it and you win.
Willie Buck Mays, Dwight Gooden, Robin Yount and Bryce Harper were all flawed in some way when they got the (youthful) call. Waiting for the flaws to disappear would have been counterproductive.
If you swap out talented youth, you better get it right. That's a talent that I wan't to see in a GM.
moe