POTD Michael Saunders
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Q. How likely is it that Michael Saunders is going to bust out? Show your work, Doc.
A. The problem is, whatever "sabermetric stats" you run on Michael Saunders, they're all going to show the same thing regarding his STRIKE ZONE CONTROL.
- 2011 - total humiliation (including 0.21 EYE and a shellshocking 23 OPS+)
- 2012 - battling the league to a defensive draw (0.33 EYE but 110 OPS+)
- 2013 - excellent EYE (0.67) for a power hitter -- so far (and 150 OPS+)
You can compare Saunders to a bunch of hitters like him -- these would (now!) include Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Adam LaRoche, and even Nick Swisher now. But! Those players would have career arcs that are nothing like Michael Saunders'.
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Q. Why does the career-arc factor prevent pattern recognition?
A. EVERYTHING in sabermetrics is based on pattern recognition. Sandy Koufax had a K/9 that was xx% better than league, and he turned out to be good. Some other pitcher also has a K/9 like Koufax' ... hey, we predict he'll be good.
Michael Saunders is an odd duck -- really odd. In order to CONFIDENTLY predict where he might be going, we'd want other past players who were TRULY similar -- including that key idea, going from zero to hero between ages 23 and 25.
Do you know of any? It wasn't Justin Upton. He was great at 20-21. Saunders was a lost blinkin' cause, sabermetrically, at age 24. Then Upton hit issues later. His arc is weird. Saunders is a rocket ride at red line, headed straight up (at this point).
I'm not going to use Upton, or Ethier, to understand Saunders. They developed differently, and they'll proceed differently. Somebody else will just run a chart with 75-80% contact rates and 150+ ISO. That would overlook the most important factor here, age-arc and trends.
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Q. What is the nature of Saunders' strike-zone progress?
A. In 2011, there wasn't any sense to make of anything -- he was horribly overmatched, and the stats are chaotic. The first-strike % is way out of alignment; they were pouring 0-1 pitches down the middle. The whole picture is just "non Major League." You're measuring a classical song with a ruler.
In 2012, things come into alignment and the key STRIKE ZONE stat is the 76% contact rate. Here is where Saunders falls into alignment with other 75-80% contact rate power hitters -- Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Adam LaRoche, even Swisher. And his EYE falls in line with theirs, about 0.35 to 0.45 or so -- 50-60 walks, 140 strikeouts or so.
In 2013, Saunders has taken another giant leap, in terms of the strike zone game-within-a-game. He still has the 78% contact rate, but .... now he swings at balls out of the zone only 15% (!) of the time. (This mirrors Kyle Seager's pitch stalking.)
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Q. Do these super-refined stats match the scout's eye?
A. They do, yes. The scout's eye confirms all this. Saunders is no longer "in between." He's "on top" of the pitch sequences, not really surprised by anything. He's being very selective, is able to fight off tough pitches for foul balls, is able to attack with gusto.
But! Don't get carried away. The bad news is that Saunders does NOT have Ichiro's (or Seager's, or Ackley's) ability to swat a mosquito with a willow switch. His contact rate REMAINS at 75-80%.
In this respect he's not comparable to Mark Teixeira, or Albert Pujols, or Joe Mauer. You can't give Saunders credit for a natural HIT tool comparable to Buster Posey's. He doesn't have that.
I wouldn't get lost in fantasies about his becoming Mickey Mantle. His HIT tool limits him.
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Q. Are there players who improved their CT rates?
A. Oh, like Mark Teixeira started with a 75-80% rate ... in 2004, his Plate Discipline profile, across-the-board, was right where Saunders' is now. Including the unbelievable 15% O-Swing rate.
Teixeira evolved from there -- very low OSwing rate -- to develop a very high contact rate and a .300/.400/.550 peak. That would be the basis for Saunders' extreme UP scenario, if you ask me.
But! Teixeira was obviously never a guy who struggled with the strike zone in any way.
If anybody runs 10 comps, based on 3 PECOTA type stats, be very careful not to buy in. Life isn't that simple.
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Q. If Teixeira is the best UP scenario you see, what would be the MID?
A. Well, supposing Saunders keeps doing exactly what he's doing?
His BABIP is not high right now -- at .314, it's probably lower than it should be. His HR/F is not high. He's not getting lucky at all, he's batting .286, on pace for 150 strikeouts ... and his OPS+ is 149.
Prince Fielder's career OPS+ is 145, and Prince doesn't play center field. Here is the career active leaderboard for OPS+. The fact is, that Angel fans and Ranger fans should Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid that Michael Saunders isn't ALREADY the player that he has BEEN in 2013 so far.
Again, there's nothing in Saunders' strike zone management, or balls in play, or anything, that have been lucky. I can't find any reason to believe that his results, in 2013, are soft in any way.
If they're not, obviously you DO prefer his overall game to Josh Hamilton's, salary aside. Hamilton has some real issues with his career arc right now.
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Q. What's the DWN scenario?
A. Guys like Upton have bounced up and down with their results. Upton's SLG:
- Age 21 - .532 SLG
- Age 22 - .442 SLG
- Age 23 - .529 SLG
- Age 24 - .430 SLG
- Age 25 - .600 SLG (this year)
You never know when a "long-lever" guy is going to get fouled up, I don't guess.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. There is no "correct" sabermetric plot for Michael Saunders' future. We've given you the facets of the chess position that look most critical to us. But can you find other facets that will be more predictive? Knock yourself out. It's SSI. We report, you decide :- )
If Dr. D didn't know better, he would say that Michael Saunders CAN keep doing exactly what he's doing right now.
If he does, well, he's on pace for 9 WAR. .270/.370/.500, with OPS+ at 130-145, that's Carlos Beltran, Evan Longoria, Mike Napoli, playing CF and stealing bases.
.........
Were you aware that Saunders is on pace for +17 runs added defensively? There's the Safeco effect for you. Put a guy in center here, and he's going to look good.
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Q. Carlos Beltran?
A. At least Beltran also followed a weird pattern on his K/BB. As a rookie he had 46 BB's against 123 K's and I figured he was a hacker. He got better and better and at his peak, had years where his EYE was over 1.00.
If I were Michael Saunders I would set myself that standard. I would want a Carlos Beltran career. In 2013 he's been doing it.
As Iwakuma could tell you, if you DO become a star, there's about a year lag before it's recognized.
Cheers,
Dr D