# of teens who "fail" in the Midwest League: All of them, minus five or so. And those 5 tend to be early round bonus babies.
Tim Lopes isn't a normal 19, either - he turned 19 last month not 10 months ago. Carlos Correa is the only seriously younger hitter in the league, IIRC, and I think we can agree he's a BIT better than Timmy.
Lopes does not have a power stroke, and he'll never have one. He's a slap-hitter who runs the bases well and is currently playing against an average pitcher-age 3 years over his head. If he hadn't struggled he'd be a top-5 hitter in the system. He did, and I expected him to (like you) but that's not a reflection on him. He jumped over two levels of ball from Arizona (Pulaski and Everett) to get to the Midwest League. That means the Mariners like him a lot. Will he fail to graduate? Probably, but not certainly. Since he's not a thumper they don't have to worry about him learning bad habits in High Desert. If he keeps hitting for average the rest of the year they might very well graduate him out of a pitcher's league and let him settle in offensively in the desert.
I still say he's aiming to be Joey Cora. It's hard to be more than that when you're only gonna hit 5 HRs a year with a slap swing. Even in the launching pad of Las Vegas, Cora couldn't hit balls out - or even tag too many doubles (maxed out at a season-best 25). Cora had a couple years at Vanderbilt before even attempting the minors, though, while we just threw Lopes to the lions. He's doing fine, really. Not brilliantly, but not enough to scuttle his career.
Timmy may never be anything, and Cora was not exactly a 30-WAR devastator. But the idea that Jabari Henry at a corner, at his age, has a better shot of major league success than Lopes at his age in the middle infield? Not sure I can get behind that one.
And I like both Jabari and Pizzano - but Lopes will be in the upper minors by the time he's their age, and his bar for plate success is much lower than theirs. He could certainly turn out to be a Mike Garciaparra type (another slap-hitting middle infielder who looked a lot like Lopes in the MWL). Or Oz Navarro, or Anthony Phillips, any of the other lightweights we've employed over the years. Our track record on those guys is not good, and it's not like Christian Lopes (Tim's brother) is lighting it up to provide hope that our Lopes is any different.
I just think it's a little early to call it. When a guy is trying to be a .270/.350/.370 kind of hitter, him posting a .260/.300/.300 right now isn't a death knell. The early months in the Midwest League are brutal for any young player.
~G
Add new comment
1