Cabrera, Haren trades
Q. Miguel Cabrera 2007. Was he traded to Detroit for four Taijuan - Paxton - Zunino - Miller level assets?
A. I would definitely agree that Miguel Cabrera 2007 would be a great comp for Stanton currently. I would clearly want Cabrera, coming off two .430 and .401 OBP seasons, and playing the infield.
But that's a trade package that should be included in the discussion, if we're trying to get our bearings on what Stanton might cost. Really, you would need about 20 such packages, all since 2000 or so.
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Q. Is anybody going to search for the LOWER bounds of what a Stanton might cost?
A. I'm trying to imagine the Seattle 'net if SSI had proposed a Cliff Lee deal based on what we got him for...
But yeah. While you guys try to find the max that Stanton might conceivably fetch, how about also considering some cases where the buyer got a good deal?
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Q. WAS Detroit's package comparable to the A's package? or what?
A. ...
1. Cabrera was packaged with Dontrelle Willis, a #3 ML starter who had 200+ innings the previous three years. If Miami's going to include Ricky Nolasco, signed under terms comparable to Willis, then our offer would be higher.
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2. The players that the Marlins received for Cabrera and Willis:
- Maybin, a top-10-MLB prospect who had 24 AB's and a .143 AVG in the bigs - Comp: Nick Franklin or Brad Miller (Maybin "sexier" but Franklin, Miller play 2B/SS)
- Andrew Miller, a reclamation project under a major cloud (destroyed twice in bigs, was looking broken, and in fact was broken). Comp: Jesus Montero
- Frankie de la Cruz, an org prospect with 6 poor innings in the bigs - Comp: Blake Beavan
- Mike Rabelo - not in DETROIT's top 10 prospects at time of trade
- Burke Badenhop - not in DETROIT's top 10 prospects at time of trade
- Dallas Trahern - Detroit's #8 prospect at time of trade ... 92:52 CTL in 162 innings, AA
So the Cabrera deal would probably sit across from a deal such as Franklin-or-Paxton, Jesus Montero, Beavan or maybe Maurer, and several non-glamor prospects. That in return for Stanton and Nolasco, or maybe Slowey.
You can dig through trade history and get a feel for it; you'll quickly get a feel for just how much Brad Miller is worth, on the trade market. Even the Yankees and Red Sox slobber over ML regulars who have six years left!
It ain't real easy to deal for a good baseball player who is making $490,000, free agent in 2020. Tell me which one you'd go get?
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Q. What was the Haren deal again?
A. Thebaseballcube.com site goes ahead and collates each prospect's Baseball America standing, year-by-year. The Cardinals gave up:
- CarGo who was #18 in baseball,
- Brett Anderson an ORG #9 ranked guy in 2007 who one year later became an MLB top prospect,
- Chris Carter an ORG #10 ranked guy in 2007 who two years later became an MLB top prospect,
- Three other decent org prospects
Q. What was this distinction about "MLB-certified" or "MLB-baptized" or whatever?
A. Pick your own semantics. Obviously nobody believes that Taijuan Walker has the same established standing that Stephen Strasburg does; that's TRITE. :- /
But it has become very clear, this last season, from various sources that --- > after a hotshot prospect IMPRESSES in the ACTUAL BIG LEAGUES, his value shoots way up.
C'mon. Matt Moore threw 9 good innings in the bigs, and got an 8-year deal. Whether YOU agree with this or not, we are talking market value.
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Q. So when have four "MLB-baptized" blue chippers been traded for a Caberera or Haren or whatever?
A. I dunno ... the Colon trade was certainly stunning, but (a) it was a special case, and (b) Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore weren't exactly as highly regarded then as they are now.
Like we said, line up 10 cases where the selling team did good, and 10 cases where the buying team did good, and you're not going to find Taijuan - Paxton - Zunino- Miller going out for one superstar. Don't sweat Zduriencik doing anything like that.
Even last year's Taijuan/Franklin for Justin Upton ... that would be like giving up Hultzen and Romero, now.
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Q. Is Zunino tradeable in any scenario?
A. I'd appreciate it if somebody came up with any such past case. Two-way catcher, org darling. Zunino has arrived on the scene after many, many years of problems with pitcher communication. Since Dan Wilson.
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Q. Has a Taijuan Walker ever been traded?
A. I can't think of a time one ever has. We'll throw it open to the house. Anybody?
98 MPH, four pitches, many people regard him the very best pitching prospect in baseball, very successful cup of coffee in the bigs.
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Q. OK, Doc. As usual you have out-typed, if not out-argued, your friends into submission. What do YOU see as an offer that would WIN the sweepstakes for Stanton?
A. The Marlins can ASK anything they want. What they settle for in the end, that's the question. Every year we hear teams ask for three of your best and brightest, settle for one, and hear fans saying it will take all 1-5 in your org.
We have no way to know how much the Marlins like, let's say, James Paxton. If they did, my own wild guess is that Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez, Brad Miller and Charlie Furbush would win the sweepstakes. I might do that.
It's VERY possible that the Marlins love (say) Nick Franklin. ML orgs aren't as fickle with hot streaks as fans are; remember, Andrew Miller was the key to the Cabrera deal, and he'd gotten destroyed in the big leagues. Franklin/Ackley, + Hultzen, + Maurer, + Capps would be an overpay, it says here... but one I'd consider, if I thought I could sign Stanton to an extension.
You get one truly glamor prospect, ML-ready, who WILL be in the Opening Day lineup 2014, and that's the standard for these deals. Then two exciting players, who WON'T be in the Opening Day lineup, and sweeteners.
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Q. Who counts as "truly glamor prospects, ML-ready, who WILL be in the Opening Day lineup 2014"?
A. Hm. Taijuan, Paxton, Zunino, Miller, Seager* without question.
You can argue about Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley, and Danny Hultzen. Fact is, the Mariners are loaded in this department; the M's have Jack Zduriencik and he's been drafting real high, kiddies.
We're only talking ML-ready; the D.J. Peterson types are another matter.
Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Stefen Romero, Michael Saunders, of course Jesus Montero, their stock is down a bit, but all are two good months away from the same status.
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Q. Big finale. Your take on Bat571's proposal of Franklin-Erasmo-Romero and sweeteners?
A. :: drumroll ::
;- )
Looks a bit light to me, unless (1) the Marlins liked Franklin more than Miller and (2) were madly in love with Erasmo. You and I know that Erasmo could go 15-8, 3.60 next year, but is that his current stock?
But in my view, the basic sense of proportion is a lot closer to accurate than elsewhere...
I'd re-phrase, counselor, and say ZUNINO-Erasmo-Romero-plus, or Franklin-PAXTON-Romero-plus.
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Pop's deal of Taijuan-Miller-Romero-Pike ... I'd have a rough time dealing Taijuan even steven. But if you caught me in a very desperate mood, I might cough up my darling shortstop along with Taijuan, and sweeteners... ::ulp:: surely they'd take Franklin instead? They need a 2B.
It would hurt, hurt bad, but it's a year on and you're getting Stanton instead of Upton for Taijuan and Franklin. Intriguing!
Like we say, if you're real sure that you're real happy with what you're getting back, don't be afraid to pay $1.25 on the dollar. Maybe Pop's qualifies?
Cheers,
Dr D