Chicks Dig the Long Ball, dept.
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Howard Lincoln "Hey, But At Least We Hit Home Runs Now," Dept.
James found, in 1983, that teams heavy on HR power won a lot of postseason series. He doesn't know how it's gone since then ... maybe one of you gennlemen want to count it up. Don't count the teams that were so similar in HR capability that they muddy the water.
Have the "Home Run" teams won so far in 2013?
In the AL, there were not serious disparities in HR ability.
- Boston 178 homers -- over -- Tampa 165 homers
- Detroit 176 homers -- over -- Oakland 186 homers
In the NL, there were two series in which an HR team faced a run-scoring team:
- St. Louis 125 homers (and 783 runs) -- over -- Pittsburgh 161 homers (634 runs)
- Los Angeles 138 homers (and 649 runs) -- over -- Atlanta 181 homers (and 688 runs)
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The homer metric would have been 0-for-2 this year. And, of course, James didn't call the HR factor an absolute -- it's one of 16 slider bars on the equalizer deck, but simply the biggest one.
The Dodgers overcame their HR deficit with superior pitching, right? ... whoops ... Atlanta had a 122 ERA+. Slap me silly. I wished I lived in Raleigh... the Braves were led in ERA+ by Kris Medlen, who is part of the Iwakuma-Erasmo-Medlen stylistic trio. Maybe Erasmo will do the same for us next year... lose in the ALDS, that is.
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The St. Louis vs Pittsburgh series was an interesting one for the HR Factor Theory. St. Louis had fewer HR's but a better offense. In terms of pitching, they were equal. Here, let's chart this out:
| Factor | Pittsburgh Pirates | St. Louis Cardinals |
| ERA+ | 108 | 107 |
| HR | 161 | 125 |
| Runs Scored, though | 634 | 783 |
Wow. You couldn't ask for a better (isolated!) test case for the homer theory.
Pittsburgh DID use the long ball, and Gerrit Cole, to win game 2. They used Francisco Liriano, and non-homer tools, to win game 3.
But for the Cardinals, the great Adam Wainwright won games 1 and 5, and the pivot game, #4 ... Michael Wacha locked down a Pirates offense that scratched out only 1 hit. The low-runs, high-homer offense fizzled out at the key moment.
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The Mudville Nine
Howard Lincoln protested that the M's can hit home runs now, and drew a lot of hooting and jeering for it. Dr. D was uncomfortable with this. Earl Weaver used to design his offense by figuring out where he would get his 150 homers. (He wanted 150 then; nowadays he would say 180-200.)
We all agree that what the Mariners need is good hitting. But Dr. D, he wouldn't be so quick to rule "home run hitters" out of the discussion. A little chart:
| 2010 M's | 2013 M's | |
| Runs | 513 | 624 |
| OPS+ | 79 (!) | 98 |
| HR's | 101 | 188 |
The preseason 2010 Mariners were applauded for their avante-garde WAR'ry decisions. But in 2010, the M's hitters were a laughingstock. They hit a "tipping point" of offensive mushiness and at the plate, the ballclub imploded.
In 2013, the lineup was full of batters who commanded (comparative) respect.
Kendrys Morales drew no snickers from enemy pitchers this year, not like Adam Moore and Casey Kotchman and Ryan Langerhans did in 2010.
Neither did Kyle Seager, or Rauuuuul, or others. When it comes to the "hard RBI," the lined shot with the score tied and men on base, the 2010 Mariners just didn't have them.
Home runs are not all there is to baseball. But like Earl said, a player hits one over the fence, he's doing a whale of a lot to win you a ball game.
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Bilbo Baggins "There and Back Again," Dept.
St. Louis faced a dangerous lineup out there in Pittsburgh. Thanks to Wainwright and Wacha, and a nicely balanced offense of their own, the Pirates couldn't make them pay.
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Latest word on Kendrys: yes, Zduriencik will offer the $14 mills. And he'll snuff it. What a feeblemind. Didn't his agent notice the 1.2 WAR?
1.2 WAR, and the man is rejecting $14M offers? The GM's still haven't gotten the Fangraphs memo. One of them is just as liable to give the contract and a draft pick. For a 1.2 WAR designated hitter!
Well, they got the memo, actually. They're nodding politely and proceeding with a less static, more evolved, understanding of how baseball works.
As are we,
Dr D