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I had read that he has a hole in the outside with breaking pitches. Detriments like that are only as effective as the pitchers location. I can't recall where I read it. It's not as though you couldn't name dozens of all Stars who had similar issues, especially Latin guys.
The best breakdown I've read on him also said this (paraphrasing, it's been awhile)
He'll have some trouble with ace velocity which includes some #2s and relievers but feast on back end pitching to get his 30+ HR. That is still valuable.
That makes sense to me. It was talking about expectations and not peak or ceiling. Maybe better, maybe worse. If we're talking about a $20 million a year bat that's too much pay to risk that. That's why he's not a $20m bat, yet. I don't think the downside is as low as Peguero or comparable. That's not what it sounds or looks like. I do think the ceiling is very high. Offensively. Defensively it sounds like he's similar to Morales but healthier. Maybe he's somewhat better.
I don't think Ellsbury and Abreu is much different from Ellsbury and Morales. Abreu is simply more volatile while Morales has a higher floor and lower ceiling. The mid range/probability seems closer to the same now. Betting on Abreu hitting above the mid range is beyond me but the bet might be less annually than Morales. If it's more I'd think that says the median or probability is possibly higher to enough front offices to battle. 2 or more. It might just be a couple teams looking for a Puig/Cespedes type win.