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You know who would hit like that in AA or A+? Carlos Peguero. And that is the downside risk - not that he hits .250-.300-.420 with 20 HR in Seattle. It's that he's a AAAA player that can never make the transition to MLB pitching. I do some risk analysis in real life and if you don't peg the downside risk properly, you will make all kinds of bad investments. The idea that his downside is Smoak while his upside is Papi will lead someone to that $60+ million contract. If the downside is Carlos Peguero, then that figure will drop. If the upside is more like Napoli than Papi, it drops further. As Doc says, that's what they pay McNamera for.