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you gotta figure the probability of a W in that specific game was:
~ 45% if the FG is hit
~ 35% if the FG is missed and it's on the 42 yard line for the other guys
~ 42% if the punt goes for a touchback (ball on 20)
~ 41% if the attempt at first down is failed and you're anywhere between the 35 and the 29
~ 50% if they convert on fourth down.
The largest gap in outcome has to be between doing ANYTHING else and whiffing on the FG. Because if you get three points, you're still losing and the difference in your chances of winning on your next drive is relatively small (between hitting that FG and missing it). So at that point, the question is field position. And the punt has a high probability ot being not much better than going for it anyway...so...why not go for it.