… Mariners 8!
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Q. How often does C.J. Wilson give up 6 earnies?
A. Last year, twice -- at Texas, on July 30, and at the Dodgers, on May 27. I don't notice that either game was on Opening Day* or against a lefty lineup.
The year before, three times -- at Texas, at Fenway (LOL!) and the Tampa Rays got him at home.
In 2011, Wilson didn't yield six earned runs all season, despite pitching the year in Texas. So, there you go -- it's a miniscule 5% of the time that Wilson coughs up 6+, and never under favorable circumstances.
The Mariners are no longer "favorable circumstances." QED.
;- )
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Q. Who else in the American League is 2-0?
A. Read it and weep, you pesky rodent Angel fans. I know one team that isn't.
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Q. Are the Angels worried at all?
A. Want to see them in full-on panic mode? ALREADY? Check it out rat cheer :- )
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Q. What precisely is going on with Dustin Ackley's game? Sabermetrically, first.
A. On TV, they advertise that he's been too patient - last year's 50% swing rate on strikes was 2nd-lowest in baseball, sez they. Personally, I wouldn't agree. So far this year his overall swing rate is the same as it has been. It's not like he's going up there hacking.
But! He's having a much easier time reading the pitches. O-Swing is "swings outside the zone," Z-Swing is "swings when pitch is a strike," and so forth:
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | O Contact% | Z Contact% | CT% |
| 2013 | 25% | 52 | 74 (grrr) | 91 | 86 |
| 2014 | 13 | 67 | 0 (!!) | 100 (!!) | 86 |
| ML average | 30 | 61 | 61 | 86 | 77 |
His swings, and contact rate, aren't different. What IS different, is that he is very easily deciding what is a good pitch and what isn't.
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Q. The above table tells us about X and Y axis. How about the Z axis -- the front and back of the zone?
A. In 2014, Ackley has been good on fastballs, but absolutely death on offspeed pitches. Check out his pitch values on curves, sliders, and changeups -- all are +4.00 runs or better per 100 pitches. This tells you that he's staying back, reading the pitch, and only then pulling the trigger.
His line drive rate? 50%. ML average is about 20-21%.
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Q. Okay, that's the sabermetrics. How about the scouting eye?
A. It just looks as if Ackley has the pitches -- it looks as though the pitcher is "tipping," and Ackley knows what's coming. Should that surprise you?
His EYE, early on, is 2:1.
If he's jelling, if he can anticipate now, then we get to see his ceiling. As we get to see Smoak's.
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Q. What would his ceiling look like?
A. Well, we've had a glimpse for a coupla games ... screaming line drives to all fields, takes the ball off the wall with authority. You could imagine it as well as we could. Good walks, sensational EYE, good wheels on the bases.
Well, if I were him, the comp I'd be aiming for is probably the best version of Jacoby Ellsbury. Or a lefty Andrew McCutchen minus 10 homers. Or Dustin Pedroia.
In left field, that might not be 5 WAR, but ...
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Q. Okay. Was Justin Smoak's game-winning double a right handed "screen drill" swing?
A. It was a low-and-in fastball. It was 91 MPH from a lefty, angling in at his back knee, again without the benefit of a hitter's count. Smoak dipped the back knee, pulled the hands in, and socked the ball on a rising line drive deep into his power alley.
All three of his extra base hits have been on vicious pitches:
- The 2B on a 3-2 jam pitch from Jared Weaver, diaphragm-high on the inside black
- The HR on a 93 MPH pitch at the very top of the strike zone
- The 2B on Tuesday on a 1-1 pitch, that coming on a "back foot" special
Later in the game, after Miller's second dong, they showed everybody in the dugout celebrating ... but there was Smoak with a bat in his hands, slo-mo'ing swings with his hands against his stomach.
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Q. How good do you have to be ;- ) before the pitcher gets ticked at his manager for making you pitch to him instead of Robinson Cano?!
A. Check out the MLB.com article. In part:
Asked if it was strange to walk a left-handed hitter to face someone batting from the right side of the plate, Wilson said: "Yes. No more questions on that one."
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Q. Can you say anything about Brad Miller that would be in any way "fresh"?
A. Taking absolutely everything into consideration ... the various pitches he's seen, and the way he's dealing with them ...
I'm wondering (1) whether he's going to be a Troy Tulowitzki-level player and (2) whether there's been anybody quite like him. Gordon has talked about how rare it is to get power-hitting lefty shortstops of any skill level.
We warned that Ackley and Smoak, at their positions, might not get to 5 WAR at their ceilings. We make no such claims vis-a-vis Bradley Miller.
.........
The word "beauty" conveys:
- Aesthetic pleasure
- Virtue, moral nobility, a sense of well-being
A cookie or a pair of shoes might be cute, but they aren't beautiful. A lake up in the mountains, or the Mona Lisa, is beautiful because they add the idea of weight, of nobility.
Brad Miller's play, his self-effacing bare-handed tee shots into the power alley, his crazy scrambling around 2B in a desperate bid to gain bases, his grim iron determination to out-work they keisters ... it inspires in me a deep sense of beauty. To me he's the logo. Brad Miller, that guy's the only baseball player you need. Just play the game with Miller.
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Lucky us,
Dr D