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1. Ackley doesn't seem to be falling off towards first base as much as he was last year. In game 1 he hit a fastball on the outside black to left field while keeping all his weight going towards the pitcher. That was encouraging. Through 3 games his Sw% at strikes is up, so that's also encouraging. I am slightly more optimistic on him than I was a month ago, but I want to see if he can maintain these changes for a few months. He did after all have 2 or 3 good months when he first came up, so I hope these changes hold.
2. I am way less optimistic on Smoak than you are, simply because I think he's just hot right now and here's why.
You said that he has made an adjustment and is now hitting pitches he couldn't hit before, namely the pitch at the top of the zone. I went through all of his homeruns from last year looking for any that were identical to the one he hit against Jepsen on opening night, the one that was at the top of the strike zone running back over the middle of the plate. I found 2.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_06_25_pitmlb_seamlb_1&...
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_08_11_milmlb_seamlb_1&...
The first on June 25th, the second on August 11th. Both came on 94 mph fastballs against a RHP and were both hit to more or less the same spot.
To my eye, he isn't hitting the ball harder, but hopefully there is batted ball velocity somewhere that someone could help me out with. He has always had the ability to hit line drives and homeruns. He's always had a pretty good eye. He's just never had that elite first baseman power, and I haven't seen anything yet that makes me believe he has. I distinctly remember two balls hit already that were classic "warning track" Smoak in the first three games. Both looked like they were squared up pretty well, and both died on the track. Call me cynical, but I think he's just hot right now. I would love to be wrong on him however.
3. Miller might be the best player on the team besides Felix and Cano. He's struggled with fastball away the first few games, don't remember if that was a problem last year or not. He hits the ball hard a lot, has great speed, plays an adequate SS. I think this is the beginning of his 4 WAR floor career if he stays healthy. You add up 110 wRC+, average SS defense and 150 games and you've got yourself 4 WAR. I don't see a reason why he can't do that starting 3 days ago.
4. Paxton might have jumped a step starting halfway though last year. A few people have pointed out on here that last year there was a point that Paxton talked about where he made a mechanical fix to his follow through or landing foot or something, and ever since he average like 7 IP per start in the minors. If that's the case, the dude is gonna be tough. I don't expect his walks to stay at like 2.5 or his K's at 11, but based on his stuff it's easy to see 9k 3-4 BB Paxton starting yesterday. He did get lucky on quite a few line drives yesterday, with normal luck he by all rights should've given up a few runs last night, but he's gonna be the number 3 or 4 starter when Iwakuma is healthy, and a guy with a 3.34 ERA from that spot going 6 innings or more is a great boost. I think he'll be around a 2.5-3.5 WAR pitcher over 190 innings this year if I had to predict.
5. Erasmo's change-up was so good. Why on Earth was he throwing my sliders last year? He needs to get back a few ticks on his fastball, because 89 from him is going to put tons of pressure on his command. He got shelled on two beautiful first pitch fastballs low and away on back to back hitters. If's hes sitting 89-90 he's gonna have some rough starts. If he can get back to 92-94, that should help. That and avoiding sliders left over the plate, which has always been his issue when he gets ahead in the count. Probably just needs to build up his arm strength over his first few starts. My guess is if he stays healthy I think he's a 2-2.5 WAR guy over like 180 innings.
For me, I'm in the middle of the two camps. Some are delirious with all of this offense and think the arrow is straight up. Others are pessimistic and want to wait a few months. I think there are clear encouraging signs to get excited about, and from a fan's perspective it's been really fun watching the first 3 games. I also don't see us maintaining anywhere near this level of offense. From a strictly analytical standpoint, I think we all should wait a month or two before we start disseminating who's actually improved and who hasn't.