Kyle Seager's price is bracketed
One of the fun parts about promoting all your players from the farm is that eventually you have to figure out what they're worth, and whether to pay them. We still don't know who Ackley and Smoak are at the plate, so it's hard to come up with contract terms for them that would satisfy both parties. But do we think we know who Kyle Seager is?
After today, the upper parameters for any sort of Seager extension seem to be in place. The Indians signed Jason Kipnis this morning for 6 years and $52.5 million. Quick, tell me which of the below players is Kipnis and which is Seager:
Player A: 1500 PAs, .270/.350/.420/.770, .55 batting eye, 68 2B / 9 3B / 38 HR, .338 wOBA, 117 wRC+
Player B: 1550 PAS, .260/.325/.420/.745, .50 batting eye, 81 2B / 3 3B / 45 HR, .325 wOBA, 108 wRC+
Seager is Player B, with his second half swoon last year being the only real difference between him and Kipnis at the plate. If you think he's the hitter he was in the for year and a half of his career, and not the last 3 months of it, then Kipnis is about as close a comp as you're gonna get production-wise.
Both are lefty infielders. Kipnis plays second base while Seager plays third (league average OPS last year was .676 at 2B and .711 at 3B), so Seager should slot in for a little less. Of course, since he can play second base for someone else, his agent might not want him to take much of a monetary hit for playing 3B.
And then there's this chart...
XBH by a 3B, last two seasons combined:
Cabrera - 155 (88 HR)
Beltre - 133 (66 HR)
Alvarez - 116 (66 HR)
Zimmerman - 116 (51 HR)
Headley - 114 (44 HR)
Seager - 112 (42 HR)
Wright - 111 (39 HR)
Ramirez - 110 (39 HR)
Longoria - 105 (49 HR)
There are two definitively better base-knockers at 3rd base than Seager: the two-time defending MVP of the league and Future HOFer Cabrera, and "I play in Texas" future HOF nominee Beltre. 3 through 9 are pretty close, and Seager is dead-smack in the middle at #6. 5 of the guys around Seager are easily into the 8-Figures-A-Year club. He's gonna want to be joining them shortly - and we're likely gonna want to sign him before all this TV money hits and both arb figures and FA prices go up, changing WAR/$ figures significantly. If we're gonna sign extensions we want to start doing it NOW.
The contract for Kipnis bought out one pre-arb year, 3 arb years and 2 FA seasons. Seager - like Kipnishad been - is due for arbitration next year. Matt Carpenter signed a 6/52 contract for the Cards back in Spring Training, which paid him a million bucks for his last pre-arb year, then bought out all 3 arb years and two FA years just like Kipnis. Now, Matt had a 6 WAR year last season, but he'll be playing third base for the Cards for the foreseeable future, so he too will be used as a reference point. Especially if he has a down year this year and brings his numbers back toward Kyle's.
If Seager performs even a little better than last year, he should be looking at about a 5 year / 50 million extension after this year as a baseline, based on those contracts. DJ Peterson, if he's left at the position, should be about ready to throw his hat in the ring for the third base job sometime next year.
Is Seager one of those "players you can win a pennant with" that Doc likes to talk about, and if so, what's he worth to you? Do you pay Seager his $50ish million, or not?
~G