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Q.  So.  Does SSI take Montero's PCL performance, adjust it for the league, and plan on that?

A.  That's what the Times article did, "tipping the cap" to fangraphs dudes for the analysis.  Which ran:

• Montero's stats in the PCL are mediocre
• And even that doesn't really count, since he hit several HR's in Reno, Vegas, and Arizona (other PCL'ers don't?!)
• Therefore, he won't hit much in Seattle.  And don't forget he's a farce at any D-position
• So this is only because there are no other reasonable 40-man roster moves

I imagine you have grok'ked by now, how SSI feels about the Strat-O-Matic approach to analysis.  If Jesus Montero were a Strat-O card, we'd be fine with the above.

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Baseball's sooooooo simple, isn't it?  Montero's slash line so far this year, that's who he is.  "Normalize" it a couple of times -- to edit out his HR's and dock him for the league -- and you have "the best information available."

It ain't like Masahiro Tanaka is going to decide to pitch differently to 235-lb. men than to 165-lb. men, now is it?  His most recent slash line, that's the gospel.  We tweak off that a few times and bingo, here's the state of the art.  :- /

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That 2-dimensional know-it-all shtick never fails to set Dr. D off, does it?  LOL.

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Q.  In what way is Montero NOT a Strat-O card?

A.  His problems started when he lost interest in repeating the 11th grade.

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Q.  When did that happen?  

A.  Montero wiped out AAA at the tender age of 20, whereupon the Yankees sent him back.  Montero's chest collapsed, and his stats went backwards.  That is my personality, exactly.  Send me back to a chat board to write baseball and you will see my perk and gusto disappear.

This type of person, everything has got to be onward and upward; you've got to have something to strive for that sends tinglies down your back.  As long as he was skipping grades, Montero was destroying baseball on a Griffey-esque level.

My own approach to Jesus Montero would be to coddle him, get him thinking again that he is the Teacher's Pet.

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Q.  Are you predicting that he'll land with a splash in Seattle?

A.  No, I'm predicting that at SOME time you will see Jesus Montero blow away American League pitching.  Odds-on, that will be some place else.

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Not to blame Z for being crestfallen about Montero's toughness.  He's got to feel like he put $20K of family savings on the line at the craps table and threw snake eyes.

But not all sports stars are tough.  Some are high-maintenance, and not simply in the sense that they get arrested a lot.  Some are melancholy types, easily discouraged types (relative to the high standards in MLB), etc.  You get your head cases.  Some of them are worth the trouble.  Do you think Jesus "Albert Pujols" Montero is in that category?  

If I'd pegged Albert Pujols as the comp here, I'd certainly be willing to try a lot of different things to coax Pujols out of him.

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Q.  So the M's are newly confident, or this is a depressing "No Other Moves Available" thing like the Times says?

A.  I'm sure that Zduriencik feels like he's grasping at straws here, hoping that the MLB(tm) clubhouse candy bars will pique Montero's interest this time, but not holding his breath about it.  

Dr. Detecto feels exactly the same way.  Call it 1 chance in 4 that Montero "inexplicably" jells.

Perhaps the Mariners have indeed contemplated Montero's personality further, and have decided to coach Montero per SSI's recommendations.  It's quite possible; sports franchises spend lots of time on psych profiles.  If so, I know one blogger whose optimism soars.  If McClendon is capable of shifting to "attaboy" with Jesus Montero, call it 3 chances in 5 that Montero surprises.

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Q.  What does it cost you to try?

A. ... it costs you the angry message you were trying to send Montero.  That's all it costs.  But of course you can restore the message at any time, by being standoffish towards him in the locker room, as a manager and GM.

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Q.  Where is Dr. D on the platoon split thing?

A.  As James says, platoon splits are mostly a mirage, a short-term illusion.   We make way, way too much of them, with a few ask-er-isks on the issue.

In this specific case, it's just that it's so easy for Montero to hit with an extra 0.1 seconds that he can't fail to hit, no matter how disinterested he is or how poor his concentration.

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Q.  How about just rolling our eyes and making Jesus Montero the DH against LH pitching, and not worrying about it?

A.  The M's DH this year is hitting .201/.280/.313.  Let me read that sentence again.

Willie Bloomquist, who is in the big leagues for his personality and locker full of gloves -- that is not a swipe; Willie earns his $2M -- has a lifetime slash line of .271/.319/.345.

Any reasonable DH'ing would make the 2014 Mariners a much better team.

BABVA,

Dr D