M's -1.5 back with 7 to play
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On Iwakuma
The TNT quoted McClendon thusly:
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McClendon dismissed the suggestion that Iwakuma is wearing down.
“I don’t know why it would be fatigue,” he said. “He was off for two months. We rested him every opportunity we had a chance to do that. I’m not sure what’s going on, but we’ve got to get it straightened out quickly.”
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It would be fatigue because of: the 750-pitch weekends as a teenager ... the same training/game methods that Matsuzaka used ... the shoulder history ... and the fact that Iwakuma is as opposite to James Paxton as the Angels' front office is to the Mariners'. High mileage on a thoroughbred hoss (Clemens, Felix, Paxton, etc) is one thing. But Iwakuma is straining his shoulder every single time he muscles 88 MPH out of it.
Dr. D has always been Iwakuma's biggest fan, but he has also assumed a banana-short shelf life here.
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Kuma walked a tightrope at the best of times; he is successful if and only if his three fastballs (low-away, ladder, jam) are reliably precise. If he's got the juice to (1) hit the black or (2) miss just off it, then fine. But what is [Jamie Moyer, add five mistake fatballs a game]? You got it.
We've compared it to 3-point shooting when your legs are gone. You lose the slightest bit of bounce in your step, you're not going to be able to feather the ball the same way. If you were an overachiever to start with, a slight physical decline can produce an 8-fold loss in game impact.
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There's also the issue that --- > Kuma's pitchability, his novelty, is losing a bit of luster as he goes along. The league seems to be settling into a rhythm on him, "booking" him a bit, and the slightest mistakes cost him wayyyy too much. He used to have a lot more margin for error.
You don't kick him to the curb. In the 2015 worst-case scenario, he's a deluxe 4 or 5 starter. He's still capable of ripping off 12 "coin-op" starts at some point next year. Or, maybe these last 3 starts are just one of those things?! Anybody going with that story? Main reason Dr. D ain't, is because this is how he saw it playin' out before we got started.
- Skepticism and misevaluation
- The opportunity comes
- Siiiggggghhhhh ... okay, he gets another month in the rotation, wait and see
- Giddy with joy
- Established stardom
- Way, wayyyy too soon: the arm goes
Back when, we gingerly guessed a shy 2 years' worth of fame and fortune in America. We're at a shy 2 years. Hopefully the imagination, and the manifestation, are not coinciding before our eyes.
Maybe next start, and the following 30, it's back to Coin Op City. We're just conceding the melancholy point that, as Cy Young contenders go, his comet trail may be flaming out. Let's hope this time we ain't getting tomorrow's news today...
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On Chris Young
The TNT quoted McClendon thusly:
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McClendon dismissed the suggestion that Iwakuma is wearing down.
“I don’t know why it would be fatigue,” he said. “He was off for two months. We rested him every opportunity we had a chance to do that. I’m not sure what’s going on, but we’ve got to get it straightened out quickly.”
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Hold it. Was that the Iwakuma quote? .... :: shrug :: FKey7 template text. From McClendon, we mean, not from the usual source (us).
The fact that Mr. Young gave us twenty serendipitous starts this year? It never made him a TOR starter, now did it. You drive through, you order the chicken and biscuit. Hey! They even up-sized the mashed potatoes, like they shoulda done 35 years ago. It's pleasant and you're holding a spork and it's a lot better than a Big Mac, but ... you're not going to build a life around it.
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Spahn and Sain and Pray for Disdain
Disdain for veteran MLB(tm) Entitlement, of course.
Taijuan's ready to go. ... in terms of what 29 other clubs expect from a youngster's first 40 starts, anyway! Chris Young, and in a different way Iwakuma, gave us a very fine transition to our Felix-Paxton-Taijuan era, which will serve as our Hudson-Zito-Mulder era.
As 90% of us would agree, Roenis Elias heads into 2015 as one whale of a young lefty SP too. It's only by comparison to guys like James Paxton that he isn't a feature club-controls player.
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But the M's payroll, much less the A's, isn't big enough to think in terms of the same 5 All-Star SP's winning us the next handful of pennants. You get a Big Three rolling, it's up to you to figure out the back of the rotation as it morphs. One pitcher serves as a cog in the machine for a while, and then you swap him out, let him get back to his cover-shoot swimming pool in San Diego. Like we sez, you and I got bigger problems than where Chris Young's next million is coming from.
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The last 7 games? I go five games with Felix-Paxton-Taijuan, and two with Johnny Bullpen starting. You do let Iwakuma throw the first few innings of his start, but we wouldn't recommend trying anything remotely like that with Chris Young. Tom Wilhelmsen would do a better job and you know that.
While we're on the subject. With Smith and Leone here: why not Wilhelmsen to SP next year? The #6 SP / long man?
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So, you don't like being -1.5 back with 7 to go. Thing is, Oakland and Kansas City ain't slamming any doors, you know.
See you at the ballpark,
Dr D