Zunino's Low-Away Tragedy
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The Think Tank is allllll O!-ver Mike Zunino's lunge-fest at those diabolical low and away sliders. What say you, Dr. D?
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Mojo sez,
Career minors & majors whuff rates, all pitches
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Career minors & majors whuff rates, OFFSPEED
An open-and-shut case, as they say. On TV, at least.
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Dr's Diagnosis
This is Pitch Sequencing 101: get an aggressive kid to 2 strikes, and then feed him a fastball away ... whoooooopsie! Broke off the plate.
Or throw him a BP fastball, center-cut .... whooooopsie! Spiked down into the dirt, overhand yakker. The 2-strike nerves make the lunginess all that much more lungie.
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You might think that catchers, who CALL for exactly these setups & sequences, would be ready for them offensively. Nay verily! Catchers lag other positions by about two years with the bat, because they're focused on defense first.
It's one thing to call slider, get slider, and get your mitt to the right spot, with the whole thing right in front of you and slow-moton. It's another thing when you're looking at the delivery cross-angle, the pitcher crosses you up, to guess the spin on the ball and .... yerch.
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Some other players who flailed away to a fare-thee-well early on:
| Season | Catcher | EYE | Remark |
| 2007 | Pudge Rodriguez | 0.09 | Year ... 17 ! |
| 1992 | Pudge Rodriguez | 0.12 | ROY |
| 2014 | Adam Jones | 0.14 | .281/.311/.469 |
| 2002 | Alfonso Soriano | 0.15 | .300/.332/.547 |
| 2008 | Carlos Gomez | 0.18 |
Rook season. Now raking |
| 1997 | Jay Buhner | 0.17 | And 'twas 0.30 for a long time |
In fact Adam Jones' career EYE is 0.21, Alfonso Soriano had a number of 0.07's and the like before winding up at 0.28 career.
We well remember Jay Buhner flailing away so embarassingly that Jim Lefebrvre made an example of him early on... then came the day when Buhner simply started checking his swing on low-away sliders. That was it. Sum total.
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Worst case: there are guys like Miguel Olivo who never stop lunging at the outside corner. There's a certain greed involved. Early on, Jay Buhner certain alarmed you that maybe he'd wind up in that category, but ... he just had a special talent for telling a ball from a strike.
Does Zunino look greedy up there? Actually he looks less ambitious-than-average to me, keeping good balance, taking a controlled launch .... just looks like a pitch-recog thing. The Mike Napoli comp makes sense to me.
If it were Dustin Ackley or Michael Saunders and we thought that the batter was un-centered, we'd say so. But Zunino actually looks much more centered than average to me, age-and-arc adjusted. Hey, sometimes you just gotta give it some time :- )
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Dr's Prognosis
That Zunino, having all of 384 minors and 611 majors AB's, would get fooled by sucker pitches, isn't in it itself such a big tragedy. Most young players learn to tip their caps on swerveballs.
What you'd like is for Zoooooomball to show some progress in this area of the strike zone, coming 2015. Or, if not, we'll take the 15-20 zuuumballs that we get on mistake pitches.
Mike Zunino, who probably shouldn't have been in the major leagues after only 1,000 pro AB's, had 20 doubles, 22 homers, 60 RBI and comp'ed to Craig Biggio, Jerry Grote and Joe Garagiola. Hope to see a few less whuffs on the sucker pitches next year, that's all.
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Coast2CoastPrognosis Sez,
Jes' so you'll have something for your second cuppa, here is a scouting report coming into 2013'
A junior at Florida, Zunino has the experience, statistics and leadership potential to warrant a very high selection in 2012. Taken in the 29th round by Oakland in 2009, Zunino instead chose to attend Florida and has developed into one of the best backstops in the nation. Behind the plate, Zunino has a strong combination of leadership ability and a well-developed skill set. Initially lauded as a defense-first catcher, Zunino has a strong, accurate arm and good receiving skills that should translate at the next level. The SEC Player of the year in 2011, Zunino batted a robust .371/.442/.674 with a team-leading 19 home runs, 23 doubles and a 32/52 BB/K. Named to the Freshman All-American team in 2010, Zunino has developed consistently throughout his collegiate career.
His swing reminds us of David Wright in that it has considerable pop, but is occasionally long and could be more consistent. Zunino starts with a load where he raises his heel with a minimal, occasionally non-existant step and generates good bat speed and lift. He struggles occasionally against good off-speed pitches, something that could improved upon with another year in the SEC.
Regardless, he should have above-average power at the next level and he has shown a willingness to use all fields. His ceiling is surprisingly high for a college bat as he has produced results throughout his career playing against top-flight competition. Both his offensive and defensive value project as well above-average and Zunino should easily be off the board in the top 10.
Comparison: Mike Napoli
Projected Draft Position: Top 5 overall pick
Video Footage:Zunino hits a homer against FAU
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We might note here that Mike Napoli had 1,756 AB's in the minor leagues. The fact that Zuuumball would show you his keister onc't in a while at this point, against ML pitching, is something to watch. Says here it's wayyyy to early to panick-k-kah.
For 2015 .... 30 BB, 130 K, .225/.290/.430. 45-50 extra base hits.
Or not,
Dr D