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Mariners, meet Brewers.  They used to be the Seattle Pilots, so I guess one good theft deserved another.

 

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Zduriencik's run as the grand poobah of the Brewers farm from the 2000-2008 drafts netted them Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy (later traded for Carlos Gomez), Prince Fielder, Tom Wilhelmsen, Rickie Weeks, Yovani Gallardo, Lorenzo Cain (who is what we want James Jones to be, basically), Ryan Braun, Andrew Bailey, Michael Brantley, Jeremy Jeffress, Jonathan Lucroy, Brett Lawrie and Jake Odorizzi (among others). That's quite a chunk of change.

 

What were the Ms doing over that time?

 

2000: Jamal Strong (hahaha)

2001: the immortal Michael Garciaparra, Rene Rivera

2002: John Mayberry

2003: Adam Jones, Ryan Feierabend, Eric O'Flaherty

2004: Tui, Rob Johnson, Mark Lowe, Michael Saunders. 

2005: Clement (URGH!!), Lance Lynn (didn't sign him).  

2006: Morrow, Tillman, Fister, Adcock (who? exactly). 

2007: Aumont, Shawn Kelley 

2008: LaFromboise, Maurer 

 

So while Zduriencik was fueling up the Brewers with as many All-Stars and HOF-type bats as he could find, we were struggling to find a 4th OF or decent relief pitcher. Apart from Saunders, Jones was the only hitter we added in those 9 drafts.  We whiffed on every other available bat, even with the #3 pick in one of the greatest hitter drafts in history (2005).  And the only reliable started in all those years is Fister, despite flashes from Morrow and Tillman.  Three arms, two bats, some effluvia, and a decade of hapless futility for the Mariners and their fans.

 

But how have the paths of these two teams diverged since? Was Jack really the Man over in Milwaukee or was he just a piece of the solution?

 

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'09 - Khris Davis (smallish corner OF with suprising power), Scooter Gennett (2 WAR MIF), Mike Fiers (most famous for plunking Stanton in the face)

'10 - Jimmy Nelson (#3 starter with wildness problems but a live arm), Tyler Thornburg (reliever)

'11 - Nobody from this draft has made the bigs for them yet, though a couple like RHP Jungmann should shortly

'12 - waiting on their HS catcher Coulter in order to start getting anything out of this draft (assuming the 6'4 kid stays at catcher)

'13 - nothing obvious yet

'14 - drafting prep arms and bats and hoping for some success with that 5 or 6 years from now.

 

 

'09 - Ackley, Franklin, Seager, James Jones

'10 - Walker, Paxton, Pryor, Romero (would have been Stanek if he'd signed too).  Blash and Landazuri are still unknowns.

'11 - Hultzen (argh...), Miller, Capps, Carson Smith.

'12 - Zunino, Diaz, Pike, Kivlehan, Chris Taylor, Dom Leone, others

'13 - DJ, Austin Wilson, Tank O'Neill, others

'14 - Jackson, Morgan, Yarbrough, a bunch of unknowns

 

But maybe the Brewers have a wealth of talent waiting to burst onto the scene, and my slanted draft profile is camoflauging it.  Well...

 

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SS Orlando Arcia (basically like our Ketel Marte)

OF Tyrone Taylor (fast, lots of batspeed, single digit HRs - CF with contact skills about to reach the upper minors)

RHP Devin Williams (live arm, no touch, mediocre results. Teen in rookie ball - Jose Campos type).

RHP Taylor Williams (short, dual threat closer/starter in low-A as a college man)

OF Monte Harrison (18 yo OF in rookie ball who can get on base but shows zero XBH at the moment) 

3B Gilbert Lara (top-5 international prospect in 2014. Brayan Hernandez equivalent, just 16, might move off 3B)

RHP Jorge Lopez (low minors ERA near 5 with good stuff. Not ready for primetime, and might be a reliever)

RHP Tyler Wagner (great year in High-A, somewhat like Victor Sanchez except Sanchez is 4 years younger)

LHP Kodi Medeiros ('14 draftee, bad results in rookie ball but has promise)

RHP Miguel Diaz (19 year old rookie-ball arm. They hope he turns into Gohara)

 

The Brew-crew can't hold a candle to our minor leagues, and ours are probably down compared to recent seasons (very little top-flight pitching left on our farm, for one). The Brewers have very few legit plus hitters, and their pitching is scattered, with work to do. I find it a little odd BP doesn't have Jungmann on this list, but maybe they think his stuff is overblown.  He's a big, strong kid, but I guess he doesn't scare me (or BP apparently). Gatewood had such a deplorable debut that I can see why he's not on it (much as Gareth Morgan has trouble making our list: just too much growth needed to guess at it). Coulter not being on that list is much weirder, because even if you think he can't catch, he showed this year that there is some hitting ability in that bat. 

 

Even including those men, though, there's no way I would trade our minors for theirs.  We have literally twice as many prospects with a legit chance to be impact players, and are better at finding essentially-free bullpen arms as we go. The Brewers were a bottom-rated system before 2014, and I'm not too thrilled with what they did over the course of the year to fix that either.  They're drafting the rawest players the can find, it feels like, with the most "upside" and trying to coach themselves a win or two in the prospect sweepstakes.  I saw the Ms do that for years to no avail - and I wish them luck trying to do better.

 

 

Jack vs the Mariners, 2000-2008: +105-ish WAR to Jack's side, not to mention the budgetary savings/redistribution that allows under their club-controlled years.

 

Jack vs. the Brewers, 2009-2014: +20 WAR to Jack and Mac already, with more due to pile up now that Paxton, Walker, Taylor, etc are here, and Zunino/Ackley/whoever should be improving. This doesn't include all the pen arms who save us cash and do a terrific job, but don't rack up WAR. And Jack's minors remains relatively stacked despite promoting aggressively from within, while the Brewers have only a piece or two left that isn't half-a-decade away or a candle-lit prayer for aid.

 

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Because the Brewers are no longer aces in the draft, they've had to do it a different way: trading away or losing some players like JJ Hardy from the base that Zduriencik was able to set, and receive players like Carlos Gomez in return.  There's more than one way to win Major League battles.  Pat Gillick didn't care one whit about the draft and established World Series contenders or champions at three different stops.

 

But if you have management that is a) willing to spend on what they believe are low-risk acquisitions but b) do not want to go out of their comfort zones for strangers or unknowns, then you definitely want to be able to build from within - to let players be Mariners For Life and have ties not only to the community but to the ownership's idea of themselves.

 

After we blew the Florida trip in April last year I thought Jack might be getting phased out if we couldn't get back on track. That his last draft with us might be coming up.  Instead, he got an extension, we have a major league team with more firepower and a minors that can keep supplying pieces to move us forward, and a plan that seems worlds better than whatever the Brewers are trying for.

 

Don't like Morrison?  Kivlehan, DJ and Choi are all in AAA trying to earn a promotion.

 

Ackley has plateaued? Kivlehan, Blash, Henry, Pizzano and Guerrero are all clawing toward his position, with the big guns of Jackson, Wilson, Morgan and O'Neill behind THEM.

 

Need to trade Miller or Taylor?  Marte, Reinheimer, etc are looking to surprise.

 

We have glove positions (except center field, and even that has Jones in the upper minors and Cousino in the lower, with Brayan Hernandez and the $1.8 million bonus baby in the rookie-ball wings).

 

We have corner bats for what feels like the first time in my lifespan as a Mariners fan.

 

We still have arms - maybe more #3s and 4s instead of #1s and 2s, but we have em - and I expect to add more this coming draft. And we're basically throwing away relievers like Kohlscheen and Brazis (both of whom should go on to nice little careers) because there's no room at the inn.

 

Phase One in this whole thing was rebuilding our pitifully depleted talent level.  Check that one off.

Phase Two was getting enough minor leaguers to the bigs to allow Jack to play ball with a more restrictive salary than Bavasi had.  Also check.

Phase Three was an increase in payroll due to the increase in revenue streams.  Check as well - thanks for negotiating that, suits!

 

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Phase Four is to maintain the pipeline to the bigs in perpetuity, so that as players get too expensive or do not perform, we can replace them with internal, cheap (and talented) players who allow us to continue to run an effective and large payroll even if some dreaded "Dead Money" shows up.

 

That's what the next 2 years will hopefully show - no need to extend Morrison or Ackley for 8 figures a year when minor league guys can hit like that for free.  Pay to keep the Seagers, be able to ditch the Smoaks, and have plenty of internal grist on hand.

 

If Jack had gotten fired this past year, that still would have been his legacy to us: providing all the raw materials for the next GM to fashion into a pennant winner and title contender.

 

As it is, he'll be free to show he knows how to do that himself.  I really hope he can, because all the material does seem to be there. 2015-2020 looks like some good baseball ahead.  I'm sorry for Brewers fans that we cut your legs out from under you, and I hope you rebound to become dangerous in the NL again - but I'm glad to finally start seeing some good baseball again in the Northwest.  Considering you stole our entire ballclub back in the day, I guess this makes us even.