1
Yep
Debating the potential trade of Taijuan Walker brings up arguments about future WAR/$, the risks of young pitchers staying healthy, the worth of David Price...
But let's go back to one of Doc's original questions: has anyone ever traded a front-line pitcher of Taijuan's caliber at this stage? Nobody's arguing whether Walker is in the 2014 rotation if he stays, right? So: a frontline pitcher, ready to start for your team, gets traded. Let's not worry about what might have happened in 1962; prospect evaluation has changed drastically. Why don't we start in 1990 or so?
Coincidentally, The Baseball Cube has a nice little chart of the top-100 lists from Baseball America since 1990. So let's take a look!
Pitchers rated top-25 by BA, above AA, who were traded since 1990:
1) Pedro Martinez (top-10 in AAA, traded after the following season as a bullpenner, still one of the worst trades ever)
2) Salomon Torres (I'm stretching a bit, but he was traded very shortly after being a top-25 prospect, and blowing the Giants' chance at the playoffs)
3) Jason Schmidt (top-10 in AAA, played part of a season in the bigs in 96 for ATL then traded to PIT)
4) Carl Pavano (top-20 in AAA, traded to MTL)
5) Brad Penny (traded after AA)
6) Scott Kazmir (personality conflict)
7) Adam Wainwright (top-20, traded after AA)
8) Andrew Miller (top-10, half a year in the bigs for Detroit)
9) Matt Garza (top-25, traded after 2 partial-years in the bigs)
10) Michael Pineda (top-20, traded after one year in the bigs)
11) Jacob Turner (top-25, traded for 4-5 years of Anibal Sanchez)
There was also Bonderman (traded after A-Ball, straight to the pros) and Bobby Jenks (top-25, traded as a reliever), Braden Looper (same as Jenks basically), and probably a couple other guys that I missed. And I'm sure a list from somebody other than Baseball America would yield slightly different results. But really, who wants to trade a member of that list? You're hoping that you are ditching Andrew Miller, because if you're not...
It could be very bad news. Personally, I think Walker's ceiling is better than several people on that list. I don't think he's Pedro (because NO ONE is Pedro) but do you think the Braves regret trading Wainwright for one year of JD Drew? Or Jason Schmidt for a couple years of Denny Neagle? They did both those deals.
Funny note: both guys they added did EXACTLY what they were expected to do. JD Drew posted a 1.000 OPS season and 8 WAR for the year he played in Atlanta. Neagle won 20 games his first full year for the Braves (4.5 WAR and third in Cy Young voting) and another really good year the next season with an ERA in the mid-3s and a 3-ish WAR year.
So you trade the terrific arm, get exactly what you wanted, and still lose. If you're going to make the deal, then you hope whatever you get back plays as well as what you gave up, for as long as you gave them up for. Then it's just a difference of money in exchange for increased certainly and timeliness. Tampa Bay is not wrong that top-20 rated pitchers get traded for a season or two of Cy-Young candidates. Their expectations are not out of whack, even of our top-10 rated arm is quite a lot to ask for.
On the whole, though, trading an arm like Walker's tends to be a proposition with more long-term downside for the team giving him up. Perhaps the Turner trade for Anibal Sanchez is the goal to emulate, where the Tigers have Anibal signed for a half-decade plus an option, or basically all of Turner's club-controlled years.
Five years from now we'll be able to tell. Anybody got a time machine? David Price + an extension into several of his FA years, or Taijuan Walker? I don't care about the money - who gives us the better chance to win championships in the next 3-4 years of the Felix/ Iwakuma / Cano era?
Because if we make the trade, we'd better win in the window. Walker is likely to wind up on this list next to Wainwright as a "you traded THAT GUY?" black mark, so make it count...
~G
Comments
2
...could you list what each of those guys was traded for so we can all marvel at how bad the return was most of the time?
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But this was taking too long. I'm not gonna figure out dollar value of the money paid to the various traded players to work out the extra millions saved there for use in other areas, but that's an additional mark for the ledger. For reference (B-R figures):
1) Pedro Martinez (20.1 WAR in MTL, plus 2.6 WAR for Pavano and 8.9 WAR for Tony Armas Jr. in the Bo Sox trade later) for 3 seasons of Delino DeShields (3.2 total WAR)
2) Salomon Torres (-0.8 WAR in SEA) for 7 seasons of Shawn Estes (8.8 WAR) and 3 seasons of Wilson Delgado (-0.3 WAR)
3) Jason Schmidt (10.8 WAR in PIT) for Denny Neagle (6.8 WAR in ATL). PIT later got robbed trading Schidt to SF because, Pittsburgh.
4) Carl Pavano - traded for Pedro with other stuff - the Red Sox win!!
5) Brad Penny (8.7 WAR, plus the other stuff they got) for Matt Mantei (2.7 WAR out of the bullpen with AZ)
6) Scott Kazmir (16.5 WAR) for Victor Zambrano (1.4 WAR in NYM)
7) Adam Wainwright (26.4 WAR in STL) for one year of JD Drew (career best one year of 8.3 WAR)
8) Andrew Miller (plus a half dozen pieces) brought back Miguel Cabrera -the Tigers win!!
9) Matt Garza (8.5 WAR in TB + Jason Bartlett's 10.4 WAR) for Delmon Young (0.9 WAR in MIN plus nominal parts). Garza also brought Hak-Ju Lee and Chris Archer back to the Rays in a 2nd trade.
Michael Pineda and Jacob Turner haven't had the chance to do anything. Pineda vs. Montero is still a push of uselessness, and Turner pulled 1.4 WAR in half a season vs. Anibal's 6.3 WAR for leading the league in ERA. Like I said, if we do the Walker trade, somebody make sure we get back a 4-to-6-WAR-per-year pitcher for half a decade, please. Or the Andrew Miller trade where we get back a Miguel Cabrera. So Stanton, I guess.
Just saying. Go big and get back a monster, or stay home.
~G
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Acquiring Price Should be about filling the hole in the rotation, not upgrading a rotation spot already filled. I can't see the sense, monetarily, in then going after Jiminez or Colon at that point. Then it's price plus a cheap veteran fill in. It's not Walker or Price, if it's Walker and Colon/Jiminez Or Price and Haren/Arroyo/etc..Though possibly worse than that.
I also think that Lee should be very available, though there hasn't been much talk of it. The Phillies could be asking for Walker+too and not budge either. Maybe he's not available at all, that's just where I'd go with that roster.
If you're talking to Milwaukee about Braun, Kyle Lohse could come into the same conversation. Not my favorite pair to trade for (Kemp/Ethier and Van Slyke). How about Encarnacion and Bautista? OK that's way out there...
When it comes to what Walker is worth there are also answers that are made up of more than one name that the Mariners also have. If certain teams are determined to get the #3 pitcher currently on our roster when we're simply trying to move that pitcher to #4 then those teams just don't seem like a fit. Should we waste assets upgrading Seager for a shorter term player too? I don't see how either move really fits this teams needs. Acquiring a starter is more of a stop gap move, not that they shouldn't get a quality player. It's just not necessary to do that. I love David Price but they can keep him at the cost of Walker+. There are other ways to fill that hole without creating one right behind it.
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They now reportedly want a "Hershel Walker" return for Price and want Walker, Miller ++. At that price, no thanks.
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And That's not,when will he top out, but when will he hit, say, legit #2 status? If that time frame overlaps by more than a couple of years with what you expect Cano's window for elite performance to be then there's just no way to justify trading him. Cano is going to be here a while. there's no reason to get stupid trying to win it all in year one when his window of performance is much wider than a single year.
Trade the redundancies created by the Cano signing but not future pitching greatness.
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As I stated on the Plenty of Fish thread, I believe our #12 guy available in trade is way better than what most other teams can offer, and certainly better than what the Rays already have. The Rays will get good prospects for Price regardless.
But if we're giving up a ton of major-league ready players (Walker, Miller, Ackley, Capps, and a minor leaguer, for instance) then I'm not trading all that to the Rays for Price. Call up Miami and sweep them off their feet for Stanton at that price.
There aren't that many teams involved in the Price trade market that I can tell. They've listed the Dodgers, Padres, Rangers, Braves, Angels and D-Backs as interested parties, but the Braves and the Dodgers don't have the prospects to make a Herschel Walker Trade happen even if they wanted to. The Braves have a front-line pitcher in Sims, a couple of low-minors arms with either heat or guile, and then several glove prospects who can't hit. All their prospects are on the big club, so unless they plan to include Mike Minor and Evan Gattis in the deal (hint: they don't) I don't think that's gonna happen. The Dodgers have a couple teen hitters (like Seager) and then not a lot. Which leaves mostly AL West teams. The Rangers could do it, but don't have to, and that kind of a deal requires pressure.
I dunno - maybe getting a Herschel Walker deal is predicated on one team doing something extraordinarily stupid, and the Rays think we're stupid. That seems to be a consensus in the shouts for how our FO is viewed around the league, even though the deals we've been swindled on are basically one (Fister), after which Detroit just re-swindled themselves on the re-trade.
We can get Price, that's for sure. Whether we will pay a crazy price is the question. We should know soon.
~G
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... on trading Taijuan Walker, why not switch the flip. I'm actually growing tired of the whole narrative being framed as "M's interested in XYZ player... trade package to begin with Taijuan Walker, ad nauseum."
Why not turn the tables? Say, Taijuan Walker and Nick Franklin, in exchange for Billy Butler, Lorenzo Cain and Bubba Starling? Or Taijuan Walker for Brett Gardner, Tyler Austin, etc?
These aren't actual trade proposals. Just trying to illustrate the fact that JackZ should see the advantageous position of currently owning a talent the likes of a Taijuan Walker and maximizing that from a proactive versus reactive approach. Make them come to you.
9
MLBTR has his contract at 6/$55. That's insane. Another fun thought is projecting Sale's #'s if he made half his starts at The Safe instead of The Cell.
Is Sale at 6/$55 a bigger get than Stanton? I am all for betting big on bats, but that rotation would just be too fun to pass up.
Go big, Z!
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I'd rather ride the wave of sustained success. David Price isn't a monster. Top shelf yes. Monster no. He's not worth the minimal upgrade he brings to the roster spot. If Hultzen were healthy, then yea maybe. I've heard so many complaints that the M's have failed to draft future talent. Oh, yes they have. They've just traded a large portion of them. I don't ever want to see the M's go down that road again.
I suspect the M's traded Fister because they had "THE BIG 3".
And really.. the signing of Cano has to really alter the game plan here. How many shrugged it off as a silly notion?
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Don't do a Rafael Soriano trade in the dead of night when you can get something better for you if you let bidders know he's out there.
Chris Sale might be available if Walker's a tradeable piece. Maybe Stanton. Maybe others. If the Rays try to extort us, I'd work my way around to getting other offers.
Work it like Loan Tree. The banks work for you, man. ;)
Doesn't mean I think we should trade Walker, but don't let some other club have the upper hand. Walker can get us in on a CLASS of players, not just one player.
~G
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In the first 4 years that project to be on mlb rosters this year. That number could even rise after the dust settles if a Romero or Taylor makes the jump for another team. Carson Smith in the bullpen is a reasonable possibility too. Drafting future talent should not be considered an issue the way I see it. That's been done at fairly historic rates, actually. Star talent may be lacking, or we may be too impatient. People talk mostly about Ackley, Smoak and Montero as the failures. Only Ackley was drafted here. Baron may have been a bad move but many of the picks that seemed bad to pundits at the time have proven to be good. I thought Drafting was the one thing there were no questions about it being better than average since it seems is been that much better than average.
I was on board with trading Fister and that could have beena very good move. The problem was more in the return than the trade in general. Trading Pineda, Fister and Vargas then having 2 injuries to key young starters killed any possibility of a good season in 13 but any one of those 5 things in isolation didn't. I'd still rather have had a more productive return on Fister than have him back. I thought we were getting outfield talent there, which could still be a bigger boost now than Fister in the rotation. The production we have in the outfield at present is much lower than in the rotation. Then there's the other pieces returned that also fell flat. I still don't think trading Fister was the problem.
We're in a different situation now though. The 40 man is getting packed. At some point in the near future we will be bleeding out talent beyond what we can protect. Making a 4 for 1 swap to consolidate some of that talent into 1 better piece is something that will have to happen. At this rate, just about annually. If Walker is among those 4 it makes it hard to believe that the 1 returning is clearly the better piece.
Walker and Paxton are no longer 'prospects', they are 'actuals'. Take them off the prospect list so other teams can see the talent still there and stop getting distracted by our big Club roster. I just see no reason to consider trading either. Even for Stanton. Pike, Diaz, Ackley, Franklin, Taylor, Romero, Smith, Erasmo, Maurer, Pryor, Smoak, etc.? You could fill an infield with that list , a couple starters, couple relievers. Who's worth even that much? That's not even a full list, just some of the guys that are within a year or graduated plus a couple higher upside starters further back. Nothing there you want to discuss? Thanks for the chat. That's what's available, sorry.
13
Ryan Divish just reported a rumor that Nelson Cruz turned down a 5 year, $75 million dollar offer from the Mariners. If this is true, thank God he didn't accept and please just fire Jack Z now!
Quote: "There are rumors that free agent outfielder Nelson Cruz turned down the Mariners’ offer of 5-years, $75 million. That’s a lot of money for a guy that’s 33 and coming off a PED suspension and doesn’t hit well outside of Arlington. It may actually be a good thing for the Mariners. Cruz is being rumored to be interested in going to Baltimore."
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Because the other team also only has 25 roster spots and a 40-man limit on protected players. Franklin is a good trade piece because a) he is ready now, b) he is an offensive player at a glove position and c) he has all his options left so anyone trying to jump spots around can bounce him back to the minors in '14 if they have to.
There's a gap in the farm right now due to all the promotions. Choi, Taylor and Morban are our upper-minors bats (Peterson finished off at Low-A, so while I expect him in AA next year we'll wait and see). Choi is verrrry undervalued right now, so no need to trade him. Morban has health issues. Peterson can't be officially traded til June of next year. So Taylor is THE top-10 system bat that can be had if we're not looking to rookie leagues and the like. Not exactly the guy you build a deal around, not yet. Similarly, all our top-flight pitchers have arrived together. E-Ram, Paxton and Walker are all slated for OUR rotation, and Hultzen is gone for at least a season if not more. The rest of the guys just finished low-A ball, if that. Most teams are not gonna take a rookie ball pitcher like Diaz as a centerpiece in trade, I don't care how much we like him.
Bullpen arms are 3rd piece throw-ins, not centerpieces. We did a deal where we got four 26 cent pieces back for our dollar's worth of Fister - how'd that work out? Most teams want a centerpiece. ONE guy you can bet on, and the extras are lottery tickets that you hope work out as well. Nobody's betting on Diaz, and probably not Pike either. Campos was traded as second piece, and he's comparable to where Sanchez is at. Ackley and Smoak are secondary pieces for a star at this point, or more useful for a secondary player (you might be able to trade Ackley + a minor league arm for Butler, but not for Price).
Our centerpiece trade options are Zunino (no chance), Franklin (best bet), Miller (possible thanks to Taylor, but not likely), Paxton and Walker. They all happen to be major-league ready, but that's just bad luck (of a sort).
Now granted, we just watched Fister get traded for something like Brian Moran, Tyler Pike and Willie Bloomquist, but I don't see that happening every day. We could trade E-Ram and Ackley for someone useful, absolutely. There are lots of deals we could make that involve Paxton and Walker both staying here, and I hope we investigate those deals. I would rather spend more money and keep our better prospects, since I believe in most of them.
But if we trade some of our studs, it better be because the guys coming back are bigger ones.
~G
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LOL if he turned that down his agent is stupid. Unless he signs for 5/85 in Baltimore, I'll chalk this up to an agent trying to boost the price for his client.
If he does sign for 5/85 in Baltimore, I'll be very glad we were outbid. ;)
~G
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No way we offered that. Can't be. Can it? Yikes...if we really did.
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Looks a lot more towards the Wainwright, Pedro end than the Salomon Torres end?
.........
Big takeway, for me, from your analysis ... you can't gamble on pulling off an Andrew Miller situation. You've got to make sure you get back a Cabrera or Sanchez ... meaning you've got to be sure that David Price signs an extension ...
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And yes, if we somehow decide to trade Taijuan for Price then we should definitely extend Price. Price and Felix through the rest of the teens, if you trust their health as far as pitchers go, would give us the Carpenter / Wainwright combo the Cards deployed for a while. If one was injured, the other was your TOR, and when they were both healthy it was pretty devastating.
Of course, if Taijuan makes a Shelby-Miller-style splashdown, then maybe you can spend that $15 or $20 million over the next couple seasons on something else.
~G