In his entire career, Bedard has thrown only 15 innings after the 7th. Felix, who even now is just 27 years old, has thrown 106. Bedard has an arm that I like, but he’s not exactly a horse.
On to current Mariners, tho. Timmy Lopes is still plying that pepper-swing, but at least he's back to getting singles with it now. I'm surprised his doubles are so low, honestly. He was never, eeeeeever gonna hit home runs with the swing he has, but if he's gonna reach my Joey Cora comp he'll need to ramp up his two-baggers.
To be fair, Cora was a terrible XBH guy in the minors too and didn't figure out this gap-hitting thing until his mid-to-late 20s. Lopes JUST turned 19. He's got time in that department. Hitting singles is a good first step. Remembering how to take walks would be the second, and then gappers would be the third. With his speed it's not like the ball has to pinball around out there. The MWL is tough on teen hitters, though. Gotta be patient.
Tyler O'Neill is wreaking havoc down in the desert in the early going, and that's great to see. He's in my top-5 hitters for the 2014 farm, btw (spoiler alert). They don't have to rush him, but since he's playing LF instead of catching, it's not like he needs to be slowed down for the defensive aspect. See ball, hit ball. He might spend a month at Everett if somebody gets promoted, but with DJ's injury I'm not sure who would be movin' on up.
I expect O'Neill in the MWL next year, though. The Ms aren't shy about crashing top teens into Clinton and seeing how they do. A Lumberking OF of O'Neill, Wilson and Chantz Mack would be interesting. The college kids could show O'Neill the ropes.
~G
While groovin' on the Big Club's "Brick Frankller" offense ...
Hey, I just made that up!
[19 games (team totals): 41 doubles, 4 triples, 32 HR ... .276/.354/.488/.842 ... whoa!]
[Games played by Mike Morse during said period: 0]
[Gosh, if only they had a way to shore up the back end of the rotation ...]
***
News (though already covered in the Shout Box):
D.J. Peterson left Sunday night's Everett game in the 1st inning after being hit by a batted ball in the field. His wrist was X-rayed at a Boise hospital, but the results were negative for more than a "contusion" and he is "day-to-day."
So ... sigh of relief there.
OK ... minor league baseball!
AAA -- Fresno 5, Tacoma 2 -- Box
There have been times when Chance Ruffin (Watch List) looked like he might give the organization a little bit more return on Doug Fister than just Charlie Furbush ... but Sunday wasn't really one of those times: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K.
The Rainiers did get home runs from Abraham Almonte (26intheMix) and Nate Tenbrink (26intheMix).
High-A -- Visalia 3, High Desert 0 [7 innings] -- Box
High-A -- High Desert 7, Visalia 5 [7 innings] -- Box
You know we "love" semi-rinky-dink seven-inning double header games, and always secretly hope that they will go into "extra" innings. These two didn't.
But it occurs to me ... they'd be ideal for Erik Bedard! He might get some "complete" games, though seven might still be stretching it.
Game 1: Brandon Sinnery of the Rawhide didn't get a "complete" game either, but he only gave up two hits while striking out nine in 6.0 IP (very Bedardian), so the Mavericks never really were in this one.
Game 2: The offense showed up, and was led by Nathan Melendres (Watch List), who got his sixth homer, plus two singles. Patrick Kivlehan (Talk40 #33) had a triple and a single.
Apparently you still need to go five innings to get the win in a seven-inning game, so Stephen Landazuri (Talk40 #24) didn't get one despite a nice outing: 4.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K.
Low-A -- Clinton 7, Great Lakes 1 -- Box
An interesting, though walk-filled, start for the pride of Ewa Beach, Charles Kaalekahi (26intheMix): 6.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 5 BB, 6 K.
Two of the Teen Titans had three-hit outings. Gabriel Guerrero (Talk40 #16) and Timmy Lopes (Talk40 #20) both had doubles and also added two singles each. Lopes is hitting .357 in July to pull his average up to .263. Still not showing much else, though.
Short Season-A -- Boise 7, Everett 0 -- Box
Things didn't get any better after Peterson left for the hospital, despite the Aqua Sox sending two guys named "Tyler" to the mound. It turns out the Hawks had a guy named "Tyler" also, and their Tyler struck out five guys in two innings.
Rookie -- Pulaski 5, Burlington 2 -- Box
I'm not making this up. Tyler Smith had two hits, but Burlington's Tyler Chism hit a home run.
So the Forces of Tyler cancelled each other out.
But Chism's homer was about the only damage done to Noel De La Cruz, who made something of a splash: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K.
And Emilio Pagan deserves some attention. In eight appearances his line is:
0.00 ERA | 0.58 WHIP | 1.5 BB/9 | 14.2 K/9
Relievers from smaller college programs in the south: Capps, Pryor, Smith, Bawcom and now Pagan.
AZL Rookie -- Reds 9, Mariners 4 -- Box
Forces of Tyler:
The Tank Tyler O'Neill of the Mariners: 2-for-2, double, single, 2 walks, stolen base
Tyler Mahle of the Reds: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K
Looking Ahead
James Paxton (Talk40 #3) for Tacoma. Roenis Elias (26intheMix) for Jackson. Thyago Viera for Everett. Eddie Campbell for Pulaski. Nobody named Tyler.
Comments
I have no problem with hi-maintenance Ferraris, especially in the #2 or #3 spot in the rotation. Pedro became one, as I recall. But 15 innings after the seventh, his whole life? Are you sure?
What an amazing stat.
Spec - If we were to ship Taijuan Walker, Jesus Montero, Chris Taylor, Stephen Pryor, and Tyler Pike for Stanton:
1) How much would you die?
2) How releived would you be that Sanchez/Gohara/etc. wouldn't be included?
3) How much a blow would that be to our system?
. . . I don't put Walker in that deal. He's the only one of the young guns who isn't some sort of imminent injury threat. At least no more so than every pitcher is. I'd think he's close to untouchable.
Are we sure Thyago isn't Brasilian for Tyler?
If you're right, that would be the Portuguese according to Google Translate.
You da man, Bat!
The younger starters are all good, but they are all a long way from AAA, let alone the majors. Walker getting to AAA without any injuries makes him hugely more valuable than Sanchez or Gohara. And that's not even considering that he's also probably better.
I would do a nice package for Stanton, but not if it meant Walker. Stanton's great value is his ability to hit HR at a massive rate. This year, he hasn't been doing that. It's likely he will again, but for a guy whose value is mostly wrapped up in one skill to be "deficient" in that one skill (OK, not deficient, just merely mortal) has to give you pause. Raul Ibanez is hitting HR a much higher ratio than Stanton this year.
But, yes, there is great depth in the system right now, and a massive trade could be made without "missing" too much. And it would be nice to add a mega-stud to the mix.
Then again, considering that LAAAA added Pujols and Hamilton and didn't really get better, it's also easy to like the idea of just keeping the pipeline flowing and seeing where it gets us.
First, Pujols and Hamilton are over thirty. Stanton is 23 - the same age within days of Hultzen and Montero. A change of scenery may be all he needs.
We need to hope Roenis Elias keeps it up (Jackson postponed AGAIN?) - he's the perfect guy to tempt Miami as a Cuban refugee. Package him with, say, Ackley, Romero, Taylor, and Anthony Fernandez or one of the kiddie corps and you're getting close - without touching the core - Saunders plays CF with Stanton in right, and it's all good - still room for two of Raul or Michael Morse or Jason Bay.
I agree, Spec, IMO the M's should keep Walker: he appears to be a crazy special athlete with very little mileage on his arm. Walker could be a TOR pitcher for 10 years. I'm thinking that the bidding will get really crazy for Stanton and he will cost too much. Now that the M's have another high draft pick in 2014 (competitive balance pick just awarded), it seems as if the M's can better afford to give up their #1 draft choice and sign a free agent outfielder this winter to get the RH stick they need.
Actually, Terry, I think both Stanton's down year and the fact that Texas gave up Olt and the two pitchers for Garza makes Stanton's price more reasonable. Without Texas being able to offer Profar, Olt and the pitchers, the other offers Miami will get start to look more reasonable to beat. Now if they'll just bite the bullet and sell!
I don't see how you get him without coughing up Walker. We've graduated all our hitters, and the rest of our good ML-ready arms (E-Ram, Paxton, Hultzen) have injury or inconsistency issues.
Maybe we could give up a Miller/ Hultzen / Morban look, with a reliever or two thrown in, and make that work. If you want to keep Miller and Franklin, though, then Walker is going.
I think this lineup is finally proving that the no-black-holes look can score, even though I'm sure we're all aware that Raul crushing Ruthian homers won't continue, and getting somebody to fill that 140 OPS+ spot in the lineup would be good. Stanton has also been known to crush home runs and is a toddler still age-wise.
That said, I don't think the Marlins are going to trade Stanton (they have a winning record since he came back, IIRC) and there's no one else that Walker can be traded for in a value-return sense. So I think we're more likely to pay for the 2-3 vet hitters we need for next year, and maybe trade for an arm.
Hultzen / Morban / Sanchez for Lee's giant contract, perhaps? With a Corey Hart and Kendrys Morales free-agent signing tandem, it doesn't look too bad.
Felix/ Lee/ Iwakuma/ Walker is a pretty killer set of arms to go through, and it might be a set of starters that doesn't need a Stanton on offense to contend.
~G
Last year Lonnie was pimping Lopes to me as a potential Adopt-a-player bat. (I ended up going with Dario Pizzano).
When I looked at Lopes and his .860 OPS in Arizona and his age of 18, I was intrigued. But, I realized that his 2012 numbers were SUPER-pumped by 12 triples. Normally that would be ringing my dinner bell statistically ... speed doesn't slump. But, then I realized Lopes bats righty.
My take on Lopes LAST YEAR was that to amass that many triples, he HAD to be peppering the RF line on a regular basis. While his rookie league eye was solid enough (24:29 in 53 games), I opted to pass on him based on the suspicion that his triple-laden .860 was a potential indicator that he was ALREADY nearing the top edge of his ability to match the competition. My prediction THEN was that as he went up in level(s) that he would run into a brick wall LONG before he made it the Majors. His first taste of Clinton has largely been exactly what I feared would happen.
That said ... he's only 19. It is certainly *possible* that he can learn, grow and improve and eventually prove me wrong. But, if my guess about his rookie league swing was right, (that the bulk of his XBH numbers were opposite field, then I still believe that suggests his upside is extremely limited. While his K-rate has reamined fairly steady, I've got to wonder if the crash dive to his walk rate is also related to simply not being able to ramp his game up to superior competition. (Not wild about the 18 errors in 104 games at 2B either).
Mind you, my two Clinton AAPs (Pizzano and Jabari Henry) are behind the age curve (both 22) for reaching the Majors. But, they're both hitting over .800 with 1:1 eye ratios, so I expect they'll be moving up next year, while I suspect Lopes fails to graduate A ball this year.
# of teens who "fail" in the Midwest League: All of them, minus five or so. And those 5 tend to be early round bonus babies.
Tim Lopes isn't a normal 19, either - he turned 19 last month not 10 months ago. Carlos Correa is the only seriously younger hitter in the league, IIRC, and I think we can agree he's a BIT better than Timmy.
Lopes does not have a power stroke, and he'll never have one. He's a slap-hitter who runs the bases well and is currently playing against an average pitcher-age 3 years over his head. If he hadn't struggled he'd be a top-5 hitter in the system. He did, and I expected him to (like you) but that's not a reflection on him. He jumped over two levels of ball from Arizona (Pulaski and Everett) to get to the Midwest League. That means the Mariners like him a lot. Will he fail to graduate? Probably, but not certainly. Since he's not a thumper they don't have to worry about him learning bad habits in High Desert. If he keeps hitting for average the rest of the year they might very well graduate him out of a pitcher's league and let him settle in offensively in the desert.
I still say he's aiming to be Joey Cora. It's hard to be more than that when you're only gonna hit 5 HRs a year with a slap swing. Even in the launching pad of Las Vegas, Cora couldn't hit balls out - or even tag too many doubles (maxed out at a season-best 25). Cora had a couple years at Vanderbilt before even attempting the minors, though, while we just threw Lopes to the lions. He's doing fine, really. Not brilliantly, but not enough to scuttle his career.
Timmy may never be anything, and Cora was not exactly a 30-WAR devastator. But the idea that Jabari Henry at a corner, at his age, has a better shot of major league success than Lopes at his age in the middle infield? Not sure I can get behind that one.
And I like both Jabari and Pizzano - but Lopes will be in the upper minors by the time he's their age, and his bar for plate success is much lower than theirs. He could certainly turn out to be a Mike Garciaparra type (another slap-hitting middle infielder who looked a lot like Lopes in the MWL). Or Oz Navarro, or Anthony Phillips, any of the other lightweights we've employed over the years. Our track record on those guys is not good, and it's not like Christian Lopes (Tim's brother) is lighting it up to provide hope that our Lopes is any different.
I just think it's a little early to call it. When a guy is trying to be a .270/.350/.370 kind of hitter, him posting a .260/.300/.300 right now isn't a death knell. The early months in the Midwest League are brutal for any young player.
~G
4 aces, and a full house of above-average hitters. Tearin' the league limb from limb.
Love the Cliff Lee + Taijuan, Seattle Mariner concept.
I agree that Henry and Pizzano have long odds to make the Bigs due to not having enough time.
I just think that the age-arc emphasis goes a little overboard sometimes, (not specifically with you - but in general from many people who follow prospects). In the case of Lopes, I think some of the excitement he generated in 2012 was specifically due to the power numbers that he put up, (which you very clearly and IMO correctly dismiss).
Is there an obvious reason Lopes is more highly regarded than the other Clinton 19-year olds? Guerrero is an OF, so I get that his bat isn't up to snuff positionally. But, Ketel Marte is attempting to be the same slap hitter with some speed.
Mind you, Tyler Marlette is the Clinton guy with the best combination of production and age at the moment if one is concentrating on age arc. But, while I like the combo of average and power that he's showing at age 20, I'm cringing at the Peguero-esque K/BB numbers.
Of course, if I'm wrong about Lopes, it won't be my first prospect faux pas