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Q. Is Upton comparable in value to Giancarlo Stanton? Suppose you could give two blue-chippers for Upton, or four for Stanton?
A. No, no, no, NO.
The Yankees have a standing offer. Any five (5) for Felix. That's how I feel about Giancarlo Stanton. (Although, coming from the Mariners, "any five" means something completely different than it means coming from New York.)
We're talking about Upton as a consolation prize.
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Q. Is he a settle?
A. He's been a 5-6 WAR player twice in the last four years, and he's been a 3-WAR player twice. He'd feel like a settle if you hadn't already acquired Kendrys Morales.
Adding bot Upton AND Morales, one right and one left, THAT's not much of a settle. Both of those guys are legit MOTO hitters, and both have MVP-candidate upside, and both are looking very promising to hit that upside.
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Q. If Upton bounces back, is he a franchise player then? Does he need to spike past 2009 and 2011?
A. My big quibble with Upton is that he isn't a great offensive player, and hasn't been, even in his UP years. Here, let's check his runs created per 27 outs:
| Justin Upton |
RC/27 |
RBI |
R |
| 2008 |
5.9 |
42 |
52 |
| 2009 |
7.2 |
86 |
84 |
| 2010 |
5.1 |
69 |
73 |
| 2011 |
7.2 |
88 |
105 |
| 2012 |
5.6 |
67 |
107 |
Compare Stanton, who at age 22 (and despite being an RBI man) already produced 8.2 runs per 27 outs. Upton's RC/27 average 6.1 for his career, which might be fine if he got 110 RBI per year, but he's never even had 90 RBI. Offensively, he's been as valuable as a fast Nick Swisher. That's nothing to sneeze at, but it ain't Josh Hamilton, now is it.
Now, we put R up there to emphasize that Upton is a guy who does everything well. He plays real good defense, and he runs the bases, and he's the kind of 5-tool WAR player that WAR was made for. Upton isn't a WAR mirage; he's a guy you need WAR to appreciate.
If you were talking about Texas or the Angels ... they might view him as a franchise-type add. If they're real bullish on the 5-6 WAR scenarios.
But the Mariners right now are looking for an offensive wrecking machine, a Josh Hamilton or Giancarlo Stanton, a straw that stirs. In order to become that, Upton would need to step FORWARD even from his 2011 production. He hasn't even really been that so far, in his best years.
Upton has been a fine player. In 2009 and 2011 he's been an outstanding player. He hasn't yet been a franchise player at the plate, not with 88 RBI being his career high.
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Q. He's signed cheap for three years. Would you give Paxton and Franklin and goodies for him?
A. Objectively speaking, you'd have to. But I'd rather give twice that for Stanton.
Cheers,
Dr D