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=== Still With Fangs Down To Their Chins ===

 .... though Danny Haren doesn't strike you as all that goth, probably.  I dunno, is the werewolf look included in the fad or is it just vampires and, um, zombies?

Bill James' 'Pitcher Rankings' paradigm basically treats the last 2-3 seasons as one continuous season, underlining pitchers who have demonstrated their excellence.  My favorite use of the 'World's #1 Pitcher' tool right now, is the large, overarc'ing insights into which teams may be playing over their heads.  And which teams may be ripe for a surge in the standings.  

For example, his paradigm tabs the St. Louis Cardinals as ready to disappoint in 2012:

 ... [based on the rankings of their SP's] we have a real issue; the Cardinals won the World Series last year, they are in first place in their division, and I have them ranked as having the weakest starting rotation in their division—even worse than the Pirates.

Have I lost my marbles?  Well. . .we’ll see.  The Cardinals won the World last year with Chris Carpenter and Edwin Jackson, who aren’t there now.   Wainwright is coming off a sensational outing, and maybe he can pull back up to the level he was two years ago.   Maybe Lance Lynn will hold up and prove to be a Cy Young candidate, as he has been so far. 

But based on the proven strength of these pitchers, I think there are some legitimate issues.  Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook were pitching great earlier in the year, but they’re not, now.    I think it is a valid issue whether the Cardinals have enough starting pitching to stay in first place. 

He analyzes the AL East this way:

 Tampa Bay’s rotation is good—I have them the 9^th-ranked quintet in the majors—but it’s beatable.    The Yankees’ rotation really is almost as good (10^th), the Red Sox 18^th, Toronto 20^th, Baltimore 28^th.

Which, I know, will annoy the Merry Marylanders, who are in first place.    Nobody there is a proven commodity, and, honestly, nobody there is pitching really outstanding baseball.   I respect what they’ve been able to do early in the season, and we’ll see how they hold up.   They don’t really have a #1 or #2 guy; they’ve just got a bunch of young pitchers who have pitched pretty well so far. 

It’s the theme of the week; two of the teams with the best rotations are in last place, both being teams whose nicknames are derived from the city name (Philadelphia and the Angels), and two teams with the most suspect rotations are in first place, both of those being teams with bird names (the Cardinals and Orioles).  

To me this is enlightening stuff as it pertains to the 2012 pennant race.  As to the Angels, who have the #5, #10 and #24 ranked aces in all of baseball:

I have the Angels ranked as having the #2 starting rotation in baseball, behind the Phillies, Texas 13^th, Seattle 19^th, Oakland 27^th.     People are frustrated with the Angels, mired in last place, but as of this morning they are two games out of second place in their division.  A lot depends on Danny the Rabbit.  If Haren pitches OK, the Angels will be a candidate for a Wild Card.

Interesting that this article tabs the Angels as having an UP scenario if Haren comes around, and bam! tonight he fans 14 in a complete-game shutout... 

SSI has always considered that there are three great cutter specialists in the game, those being Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Dan Haren.  Haren whipsawed the M's all night... he threw 50* tailing fastballs into teacups, he threw 50* biting cutters right onto the edges too, and he mixed in 20 diving splitfingers for good measure.  He was awesome.

This Brooks chart gives you a feel for the random pattern with which Haren whipsawed the M's:

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And the next one illustrates the snake-tongue movement that the ball took, off of his sailing fastball and tight-spin cutter.  This is an unusually consistent clustering for a movement chart, and it emphasizes the see-saw effect that gives vertigo:

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His ERA has been high, but that's probably just because of three or four unlucky homers that might have been caught on the warning track.  Haren looks poised to resume Top 10 status in the A.L.

The Angels have a fearsome Big Three, and talent behind that. The SP rankings underline how dangerous they are going forward, and if they make the playoffs it won't be a pleasant rotation to face. 

Wedge was grouchy about the Mariners' lack of resistance Thursday, and Haren did set a career high for K's.  But I give the M's a mulligan.  When Felix butchers a lineup, we don't come back and blame that on the hitters.

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