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Is the last chance for a regular from that trade, Martinez came with Ruffin and Furbush
Hitter first, Power hitter second
Flipped open the MLB.com GameDay to see where the M's were at. The box said 2-1 Rangers, which seemed unlikely. How could the Texas Rangers field a full 9 players capable of taking a lead on this 2012 Mariners squad?
The count was 3-0 on Jesus Montero, and this was the graphic as the page rendered:
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So Nathan came into the strike zone ... whoops, offspeed, and it dipped down out of the zone last moment. Montero took that. Then he laid off a ladder fastball just above the strike zone. Then, 2-0, here came another offspeed pitch into the zone... no, dipped down below it. 3-0.
Montero then took the walk and shortly scored the tying run. Order was restored and the Mariners were rightfully in control of the Rangers.
Bill James, last week, ran an analysis of the best 5-year runs by closers. First was Dennis Eckersley. Also in the top 10 were Robb Nen, Goose Gossage, Trevor Hoffmann, Mariano... the usual suspects. But the guy #2, behind Eck? The very same Joe Nathan who was pitching to Montero.
Nathan's arm may be thrashed, but he still has the 5-year brain. As you see from the pitch sequences, Nathan still knows what to TRY to do.
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The scouts' verdict on Jesus Montero this spring: "he's a hitter first, and a power hitter second." Considering that his power ranks about 80 on a 20-80 scale, that would mean he's a good hitter. Sure there could be a 90 hitter. If there are five guys in every decade who are 80 hitters -- and there are -- then what's the greatest hitter of all time? Something above 80.
Montero isn't actually a hitter first; he's a 65 hitter and a 75 PWR guy. But we know what they mean. Montero's intent is primarily to square the ball up. Montero's intent (80 HIT, 60 PWR) is one thing, his results (65 HIT, 75 PWR) another.
Big huge guy like that, lets the ball get so deep in the zone, then flicckkkkks it over the RF wall on you? It ain't fair. They made rules against Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, like you can't dunk, like the lane's gonna be wider. The Jesus Montero rule: if your OPS is over 950, you are ineligible for the catcher position.
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=== Blake Beavan ===
Leave aside the fact that he's the very last guy I would be stretching out to 5-6 innings. Leave aside his % chance of starting for this team when it wins its next pennant. And leave aside the fact that he'll be pitching in front of a bat-first lineup that can't convert all those batted balls to outs, at least not the crucial 2-3 balls per game that he'll need.
Swapping out Doug Fister, and swapping in Blake Beavan .... sigh. The last hope for an ML regular, a significant contributor, out of that trade (edit to add, the Fister trade) is Francisco Martinez. He's now behind Vinnie Catricala, Kyle Seager, and Alex Liddi. Who themselves are all behind Chone Figgins.
Jack Zduriencik is great, but he's not a cartoon caricature of goodness. In Blake Beavan and his 3 strikeouts per game, I'd go with Kevin Millwood before I'd do that. You just figure that the Mariners are trying to build value here, I guess.
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Comments
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You're right that swapping Fister still seems to be JZ's least worthwhile trade, but... we've got Wells for a 4th outfielder and RH bench bat and Ruffin in the pen (Ruffin is another guy I'd like to see get meaner) as well as Martinez.
As to Beaven - a former first round pick - maybe as J0_EM11 was postulating in the Catricala thread that some of the guys JZ acquired were intended as bridge/showpiece guys (look, two first-rounders!), so that Beaven is exactly that - not intended to really replace Fister, but to bridge to the guys who can. He really wanted Smoak, but needed for the trade to look good as well, while he continued drafting who he really wanted. But again, he needs to get value when Ramirez is ready, so let's see if he can show as a #4-5 for somebody else, while we build our 2 #1s (Felix & Walker), 2 #2s (Hultzen & Paxton), and 2 #3s (Noesi & Ramirez) into a rotation!
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Without a doubt, that's the way Beavan makes sense... question now is why him for 2-3 months, as opposed to Kevin Millwood or Charlie "Seven Strikeouts" Furbush...
True, that he's not going to be able to flip Millwood ... I guess I'm skeptical that he'll be able to flip Beavan, either ... BB had like 11 QS in 15 games last year and nobody's perked up yet, at least that we can discern... Another lucky 6-for-9 QS in 2012 and you're still looking at him as a throwin piece...
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As far as Furbush goes, I think he has value for the Ms going forward as a BP piece who can go a few innings when needed, which has value as you break in the new guys.
JZ likes having Millwood around and he has definite value in June for a contender if he's even OK, so I think its perfectly rational to show more of Beaven in the beginning - maybe the Reds will take him with Figgins when Rolen goes down and/or Stubbs is K'ing 30% at leadoff and we won't have to pick up as much of Figgins' contract.
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My question is whether they will have significant value, that of starting players, regular contributors...
If you believed in them that much in August of 2011, what have any of them done to contradict that assessment?
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You say he's not actually an 80 HIT but a 65 HIT. You saw something that "downgraded" him to a 65 HIT? (Haha, I just asked if someone was "only" a 65 hitter) Previous conversation has him as anywhere from 70 to 80.
Or did I misread your statement? Either way, I won't complain ;)
-Nick
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And always has been. Guti literally looked to be wasting away before our eyes from a mystery illness, Saunders was a scared rabbit with a terrible swing, and we hadn't added Trayvon yet. We were so low on CF prospects we drafted an entire handful just hoping to get a guy, and needed to bridge some years if the worst happened.
Wells is that bridge.
Saunders bouncing back isn't something you could afford to bet on last year. Wells in CF is a legit bat at the position. He still might be legit Werth-style at a corner, but if Guti is out for a long time I'm fine with Wells getting his shot in center where he could make an impact. If Saunders or Trayvon have corrected their issues, great!
But Wells can still cash in for us. Ruffin and Furbush look like bullpenners, and I wouldn't have made the Fister deal (nor would Jack, I think, if he knew he'd have to trade Pineda later to get the MOTO bat he needed), but a) it's not like we got zero usable talent back and b) there's time.
I don't think it makes us stronger than before the trade, but we weren't in a position to quibble at the time - we needed a lot of draws at filling slots. While Jack seems to have brought us an embarrassment of riches during his tenure he needed it to arrive quickly in the bigs as well. No sense making the next GM look good with all your talent.
If the Fister trade (or any trade) helped him get that extension in any way, then I'm glad for it.
I may not be sold on Jack's ability to add major-league veterans, but if he adds enough world-class minor league talent then it may not matter much.
~G
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Your (strong) argument seems to stand or fall with the idea that Jay-Z woulda been willing to put Casper Wells in CF, had Saunders not done a Marshawn Lynch crotch grab dive into the end zone of baseball hitting ...
Am perfectly willing to put that interpretation onto the trade, that Wells was going to be a good shot at a 100 OPS+ CF, or a Josh Willingham in LF, with the little postscript that the Daytona 500 racing field of M's prospects all zoomed past him in about two months...
If all that were the case, sure ...
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The 65 for hitting would be a compliment, not a limitation, and would make him the M's best contact hitter other than Ichiro and perhaps Ackley...
70-80 on the HIT tool is usually reserved for the Gwynns, Carews, Ichiros etc, and after all, Montero does strike out 100 times per year, with an EYE ratio that is not all that strong... he fanned once per game as a Yankee, fanned 17 times in 18 games. You don't get an 80 on the HIT tool if you are on the strikeout leaderboard :- )
He's liable to hit around .300 though and that pushes him into the 65, maybe 70 area.
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If somebody wanted to argue 80 on the hit tool, like with power hitters Pujols and Mauer, I wouldn't call that absurd. He has been VERY young for his levels, and he's been playing catcher. For a 20-21 year old catcher to hit .300+ in the high minors, swinging as hard as he does, maybe, yeah.
If Montero does jell at 70-80 on the hit tool, he really will be Albert Pujols, and it's not absurd to ask about that. Zduriencik seems to think that he is.
...........
Bear in mind that Dr. D hasn't actually seen many of these players yet :- ) the coefficient of confidence as to the POTD's of Montero, Catricala, Taijuan, Snow, etc is not high...
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Of bodies that can help patch the hole until Guti comes back.
"Casper Wells has played out there, Michael Saunders has looked very good, Figgy got his feet wet out there today as well," he said. "It is way too early, we see encouraging things but you do have to caution yourself to realize that this is just spring training and we are going to let things work before our eyes and see what our best option is as we begin to play games and see these kids in game competition."
First name off his lips was Casper's. Trayvon is not mentioned - they obviously didn't think he was ready at the time of the injury. Not sure if his terrific play since has changed any minds, but I don't think it has to immediately. Casper can play center, and now Saunders is almost certainly gonna make the team as a 4th OF while Guti's unable to go.
I'm still skeptical on what's going on in Saunders's head, but I will be until he's in a pressure situation a few times. His swing looks miles better - he got back his power from his original swing. That'll help if he's got to play CF...but we'll see where Wells plays the rest of Spring Training and whether Jack goes with him in center on Opening Day. If so, then that tells me all I need to know about his emergency plan for Guti.
I still wouldn't have traded Fister for an emergency plan + some bullpen pieces, but we've all found out how devastating black holes can be to lineup production and the chutzpah of a team.
At least we seem to be getting to a point where losing one player to injury for a couple of weeks won't doom our season. That's a nice improvement.
~G
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Again, value is always contextual.
In the August 2011 context, you hoped Beaven would get his K rate and velocity up a tick and be adequate AND you didn't know how Paxton would do - he was still shaking off rust. We now know something about both issues. Beaven is probably a pure starter play; so, he's going to be excess. So, how do we maximize his value to somebody looking for an innings-eating #4/5?
Wells has issues - Detroit realized that and traded him. Was he better than Milton Bradley? yes. Is he better than Mike Carp? we didn't know, but it looked like a possibility at the time. Can he play RF after Ichiro leaves until, say Byron Buxton or Victor Roache (if we can get them) develop into MLB players? probably, and with some style - and he's the only one we have now that has the arm unless Chavez does a "Carp" and breaks out.
Furbush and Snow, to me, are the ideal pair of bullpen guys, LH/RH, to be swing or long guys. They have enough to go twice through the lineup, but maybe not three times. Furbush has shown MLB poise, but not dominance like Walker-Paxton-Hultzen. If we plan on adding Walker-Paxton-Hultzen-Ramirez soon, Furbush and Snow will be more valuable to the M's than to just about anybody because of their skill set and the Ms needs. Remember, Hultzen probably is good for ~150 innings, Paxton for ~120. We're going to need bridging there, too.
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Wells will not start opening day or day two (barring injuries). CF will be Saunders or Figgins. My money is on Saunders right now, with Figgy at 3B. Not the least of reasons are Brandon McCarthy and Bartono Colon (righties).