..............
There were 58 starting pitchers in the AL and NL who averaged 90.0 MPH or more on their fastballs last year. Of these, 12 threw with their left hands:
| SP | MPH | 2011 ERA+ |
| David Price | 94.8 | 107 (and 144 in 2010) |
| Derek Holland | 94.2 | 113 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 93.8 | 147 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 93.4 | 163 |
| Matt Harrison | 92.8 | 131 |
| Jon Lester | 92.8 | 122 (worst year of his life) |
| Gio Gonzalez | 92.5 | 130 |
| Ricky Romero | 92.1 | 146 |
| Cole Hamels | 91.7 | 138 |
| John Danks | 91.6 | 97 (and 111 lifetime) |
| Cliff Lee | 91.5 | 161 |
| C.J. Wilson | 91.0 | 152 |
That's every left hand starter who threw 90.0 or above.
Oh, I know whatcher thinkin'. It can't work like that all the time. Certainly you could go back to 2008 or something and there would be at least one non-TOR in there?! Just throwing 91 mph with your left can't possibly guarantee that you're a TOR.
Why resist the obvious point?
A hot left handed fastball is a plus-plus weapon, end of story. Not in class-A baseball. In the major leagues.
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=== Sofistikation, Dept. ===
We bloggers are always in search of the next Dramatic Stats Find. Hey, look at this table I found here! If you sort to get BB% = 10, and K = 12, and ISO = 150, and Madden NFL Ranking = 23, you've got a table of pretty good players!
Is the above table too simple? LHP's who threw 90 and up were great. ::blinks:: Hey, is that fair?
Holland and Danks are the lower bounds of this group, the #11 and #12 pitchers out of twelve, which is kind of like saying you had twelve minor league players of whom Jesus Montero was the worst.
..........
The James Paxton gamble doesn't take place in March. It took place when the Mariners signed him, before he strolled in and threw his easy 95 in the bullpen. That was the gamble. The M's rolled a 7. They don't have to roll again.
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=== Don't Get Him Angry, Dept. ===
In summer 2011, we had stepped into the cage and took a first cut at Danny Hultzen's pitching template. We laid that out, guessingly so, as "LHP's with quick fastballs and polished straight changeups." There had been two such pitchers in the last five years, those being Johan Santana and Cole Hamels.
But I didn't know about the above table, which suggests a different strategy:
"I wouldn't upset him if I were you."
"But, sir, nobody worries about upsetting a droid!"
"That's 'cause droids don't pull people's arms out of their sockets when they lose. Wookiees are known to do that."
"R2, I suggest a new strategy. Let the wookiee win. If he's left handed, that is."
Should it have been "LHP, 90+, and Good Changeups" or should it have been, "LHP, 90+ and Anything Else"?
Doc,
You Salamied this one. One of your best gets ever. That's an amazing list.
I was way excited about Hultzen. Now I'm way-way-way excited about Paxton.
It is unlikely that both Paxton and Hultzen make the squad out of ST (Super 2 and arb stuff, you know).....but by June a rotation of Felix, Vargas, Iwakuma, Paxton and Hultzen would be mucho fun to watch.
Play ball!
moe
If both K-Pax and Hultzen dazzle, are far-and-away the best SP's other than Felix, what they will do...
Millwood is off-loadable. Iwakuma determines his own fate by hitting 88 or not. Vargas is a trade question. Noesi stays...
As with Pineda last year, am not convinced that future salary issues factor in much. You don't know where a guy's arm will be several years down the line.
:counts on fingers:
I agree on the future/pitcher's arm point. I wouldn't be surprised to see one of those guys in the opening day rotation....just not both of them.
Coming out of ST with just one in the rotation gives you a chance to see Iwakuma (who I think will be just fine) and Beavan or Millwood against real non-ST hitters.
moe
One thing JackZ knows is it is harder to find a power pitching lefty then a right handed hitter. That's the reason he took Hultzen. With the good command of his other off speed pitches Hultzen will be a winner for us for a very long time.
Paxson still has to learn to locate the change or a curve but once he does he could lead the league in Ks more then once. As long as we don't Bavasi our prospects expect a long line of rookie pitchers coming up year after year.... Go Ms
Just kidding. Thanks for the post SD.
It *is* tough to find a hard-throwing LHP who has any amount of grace and polish whatsoever.
As we're talking about this subject, I'm starting to wonder just how many such there are. Seems every time you run into one, he turns out to be Brett Anderson or Derek Holland or something.
I wonder about this too.
It's one thing to "hang" a curve, to throw it high without enough spin so that it floats. But if the curve is tight-spin, does it matter where in the strike zone it is?
Randy Johnson threw 9,000 sliders right down the heart of the plate. Erik Bedard throws that yakker simply for a called strike. Did the rookie Clayton Kershaw throw his curve to both sides of the plate?
If the lefty's fastball is scary and the yakker breaks hard, is the location of the curve important? The MLB hitter is always defending fastball anyway.
From Geoff.
"The fastball and the curveball are very impressive, but it's tough to start in the big leagues with two pitches," Willis said. "He's got two plus-pitches now, but that changeup's going to be very important for him."
Reminded that Pineda had only two pitches, Willis smiled and said the requisite stuff about not having seen Paxton often enough for any comparisons. But then he added, based on what he has seen, Paxton has an uncanny ability to repeat his delivery with ease.
"As good as Michael Pineda was, I've seen two bullpens this year with Paxton and I'm very impressed with his ability to repeat," Willis said. "Especially a guy with his height (6 feet 4). So I think he's got a real good body awareness. Not to say that Michael didn't. But this guy, he really repeats his delivery, and that's a key. Because control and command come right off of that."
Lonnie and I noticed that in his Spring bullpens. Just like water flowing. I love watching his arm go straight down, ball behind him, and then around with a smooth easy 96 mph fastball that appears almost effortless. He's a beautiful thrower of the ball.
He walks some guys but is not especially wild. The curveball is a hammer that isn't always in the zone, but it's definitely a weapon. And a rising 96 MPH fastball on the hands is just unfair.
A changeup would be great - and he's added one that surprises people with how good it's gotten in such a short time. I don't think he necessarily needs a plus one before he sees the bigs. A plus-plus LH FB and a plus curve is plenty with an average change.
But then, I'm a huge fan of his.
~G