...................
Unless S2S is leaving Paxton, Taijuan, or Franklin out of their top 100, then they peg the M's as having 6 of the game's top 100. This week they covered Hultzen at #46; earlier they reviewed Vinnie Catricala at #59 and Jose Campos at #82.
Baseball Prospectus had been not a little amazed, either. They listed the M's top U-25 talents like this
| 1 |
Felix |
| 2 |
xxx |
| 3 |
xxx |
| 4 |
[5-star prospect] |
| 5 |
[5-star prospect] |
| 6 |
xxx |
| 7 |
xxx |
| 8 |
Nick Franklin, 4-star |
| 9 |
Mike Carp |
| 10 |
Justin Smoak (!) |
And remarked, "if a team can put three big-leaguers in front of its 5-star prospects, that's an impressive list."
Dr. D would marvel even more powerfully at the notion that the Mariners have eight (8) young players who are better than Mike Carp and Justin Smoak, who will no doubt hit #4 and #5 for the Mariners next year, and probably rack up about 200 RBI between them.
........
Seedlings to Stars opines, about Danny Hultzen, that he is an unusual combo of [high % chance of succeeding] and yet with [excellent upside].
They point out that, usually, ML teams spend top-5 picks on guys like Greg Reynolds or Mike Leake knowing that they're only going to be 2-3 WAR players, but take them anyway because they think that the 2-3 WAR is in the bag. To a certain extent, the M's drafting of Josh Fields was in this category.
But what about taking an 80%-succeed player who has the upside also? That appears to be Hultzen, saith S2S.
Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus agreed, calling Hultzen "as sure a thing as you can find among pitching prospeccts" and "an all-but-guaranteed return on investment."
........
As with most kibitzers, S2S casts Hultzen not as "a true ace" but as a "#2-3 starter type." Read: Figure on Cole Hamels, not Cliff Lee.
SSI would sign off on this. If Hultzen turns into Johann Santana or something, the M's will take that as gravy. Dr. D will believe it when he sees it ... but the component parts may be there.
.........
Their UPside comp is Madison Bumgarner. Objectively speaking, that's an ambitious comp for any college pitcher. You can't say more of ANYbody -- save Strasburg, Lincecum, maybe Bauer -- than that you hope they'll be as good as a Madison Bumgarner.
SSI isn't real keen on the Bumgarner comp, but you can see that the attributes line up about 70% down the line. Bumgarner is lefty, throws hard but not scorchingly so, and has a K/BB ratio that looks like Hultzen's probably will.
There are some physical similarities, too. Bumgarner comes around the corner, and he does not emphasize "standing tall" nor driving hard down the CL. That lines up with Hultzen, and with El Sid, for that matter. Randy Johnson, by contrast, did come flying down the CL with purpose.
Why does SSI pass on the Bumgarner comp, in the end? We maintains that a power lefty, with a devastating straight change, is a template unto itself. SSI plans to enjoy the show, as Hultzen finds his own template.
BABVA,
Dr D