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Q.  Does this paradigm affect Felix or Vargas going into 2012?

A.  Nothing affects Felix.  True, his BABIP was kinda high last year, and he had huge mistake rates in his first two full years, but he transcends this kind of consideration.  You gotta keep a sense of proportion. :- )

We'll note in passing that Felix should be as good as Pedro was, but isn't.  He ought to be missing more bats, but he doesn't wish to.  The MPH / BABIP paradigm turns out to be, satisfyingly, consistent with SSI's quibbles about Felix over the years.  

It's a funny thing.  The Felix you are seeing, is about 10%, 20% less than the Felix he should be.  That's a scary thought, ain't it?   Like if Randy Johnson had been scaled back to being Steve Carlton.  The Mariners have a top-10 alltimer who has been scaled back to mere Tom Seaver status.

I'd bet good money that if Felix left, he'd leap two plateaus and take over the game.  On the other hand, the Mariners have done a bask-inducing job of keeping Felix perfectly healthy.

I'm not saying I won't take the 300 wins, you unnerstan'.

........

Felix is a HOF'er in any case.  But, you might decide that this MPH paradigm is nothing less than a tipping point for your opinion of our third 2011 holdover SP.   Jason Vargas has one of the great changeups we have ever seen, almost as good as Jamie Moyer's.  And Vargas' low BABIP has persisted, as did Moyer's when he was younger.

Vargas' BABIP's, with .300 being normal:

He also has given up a very low HR rate, 8.0% career.  The more you look at Jason Vargas, the more he looks like a bona fide finesse lefty in the Buehrle, Lilly, Key, Moyer template.

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Q.  Any other thumbs-ups and thumbs-downs, per Dr. D's read of the article and the M's skill sets?

A.  Many.

Tom Wilhelmsen is a big winner here ... and sure enough, his BABIP last year was .258.  This guy is a huge watch-im.

Shawn Kelley has always been able to throw 93 mph into a teacup, and with a great pitch shape.  Kelley's career has traction in Seattle.

Anthony Vazquez loses, on several grounds.  He and Aaron Laffey had high BABIP's, and it says here that it was due to "skill."

Charlie Furbush might be a surprise loser for you:  he centers a lot of pitches.  So does Josh Lueke.  They both had high BABIP's last year and, in my opinion, in this case they deserved them.

I've got to bite my lip and list Brandon League as a winner.  He pounds the knees with a 96 fastball, in spots not real easy to square up, induces tons of grounders, and has maintained a very low BABIP.  

He's white-knuckle from the word Go, and few closers have such a low K rate ... and it looks odd to see a guy throw 96 and allow so much contact.  It's an unfamiliar template and not in a good way.  

That said, Dr. D has probably mistaken unfamiliarity with inferiority.  So sue him.  League is an odd duck, but I guess he's a closer.

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Say, whattaya think of this Pineda kid?

Cheers,

Dr D