I'm coming to believe, and recently posted, that Guti's offensive peak was in '09. That's the line you HOPE he can find again. Beyond that? Bad bet!
A 100 OPS Guti, the 180-20 tater guy, is a hell of a player.
A 86 OPS Guti, the 12 tater guy, is a decent #7 or #8 hitter.
Less than 75 OPS (let alone 40-ish) then Guti is a liability. He can't save enough runs to make up for the dismal bat.
Halman's hitting .367 for goodness sake. But he's become, primarily, a defensive replacement in LF. Man, let him patrol CF and see if he can keep hitting .300.
Doc, you're exactly right. Play the bats. Carp and Halman have each shown that they are decent glove guys.
I, too, think Pegs has a way interesting upside...but 40 K's and 7 walks indicates that he's getting killed by pitch recognition. He's becoming a TDO. True double option. Extra-base hit or strikeout!
And if he's your LF, then Carp needs more than 28 AB's at DH.
Runs man. Find the runs.
Q. Why is Gutierrez playing over Halman?
A. You got me there. It is painful watching the OF's move in one step per game on him. He's got 23 hits and 19 are singles. 300 feet is his distance now.
Check the "Dustin Ackley's Secret" post today, the pictures with each hitter's load, and notice that Gutierrez is flat-footed and weight forward, even before he starts his swing.
But, you can think of half-a-dozen feasible reasons about Halman ... their getting Gutierrez up to speed, or Halman has a big hole in his swing we have not perceived, or a bunch of things. I dunno. I don't buy any of that, myself.
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Q. Why Peguero over Carp?
A. Wedge stated his reason. Peguero's physical gifts are extra class. "If we can get him going" he'll be quite a player. Ergo, Peguero must play...
SSI rejects the conclusion, but couldn't agree more with the premises. Every time this kid gets the barrel on the ball, somebody's in mortal danger -- fielder, fan, or umpire.
It's fun to watch him hit singles that carry over the outfield wall. Carlos Peguero is a freak.
He's also a freak with 38 strikeouts and 6 walks, a freak who could use 1-2 years in AAA, if you ask me. Why does Carlos Peguero have to develop in the majors? Why can't he develop in the minors?
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Q. Do they have better?
A. Yes, in the trade market... :- )
If you have decided already that Mike Carp can't hit, then cut him already -- everybody's entitled to a chance at a career.
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Earl Weaver had a Magic Bullet for offensive slumps like this: the best hitters in the organization are flooded into the lineup, right here right now.
"It's bad for morale when everybody thinks they have to throw a shutout to win." That's why he carried bench bats like Terry Crowley: he knew he'd have to break three or four hammerlocks a year slapped down by guys like Haren, Hamels and Sanchez.
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The point? It's not time to develop Carlos Peguero in LF. You're in an offensive emergency. It's time to play your best hitter in LF -- presumably Mike Carp.
Without any question whatsoever, Earl Weaver would have completely brushed off glovework considerations right now. He'd have piled all of his resources into runs scored, until such time as the offense believed in itself again.
That means, we presume, Mike Carp, Greg Halman, and a trade...
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Q. What's the bottom line? Will they improve?
A. Every team would improve from 1+ runs per game. The Rainiers would score a lot more than 15 runs in 7 games.
It's mostly circumstance -- NL rules, a string of star SP's, playing Peguero and Gutierrez too much...
Baseball managers, good ones, talk constantly about not getting too high or too low.
The M's have made a lot of moves -- good ones. It's just that they finally accomplish Kennedy's promotion and he picks that week to go cold. Offensively, they've been snakebit.
Sometimes it is just a matter of riding out a bad patch. I'll be sap-suckin' glad when this one's over.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
On Guti ... I think it really is as simple as ... the kid came on board, did everything we could possibly ask of him ... and he was struck with a mystery disease. The doctors "say" he's okay ... but he lost a bunch of weight. "In theory", we're looking at a guy re-habbing ... and he hit good enough in 50 PAs in AAA where we "thought" the rehab was done. Clearly ... it isn't.
For me, the tell on Guti (though sample size is an issue) is the miniscule K-rate compared to when he was hitting well. He's not walking OR whiffing. That means he's getting the ball in play waaaay more often. Why? My guess - (and this is where eyes on would really help) - is that he's "slow". I think his bat is literally not moving as quickly through the zone, which means he actually has more vertical adjustment than he did formerly.
If this is true - then his ability to pull the ball should be compromised (except on off-speed stuff). But, mostly it means that on pitches he would miss previously, he is putting them 'weakly' into play. (2011 BABIP = .216 ... career avg = .307 ... 2010 = .297).
I think he's playing because it's the 'human' thing to do. Given the circumstances of his illness, most clubs would be pre-disposed to making his leash particularly long ... (coupled with the understanding that despite his quick start, Halman, even more than Peguero, would likely benefit with more AAA time. But, the club needed a backup CF ... and Saunders had burned his MLB-visa already).
I applaud the team for treating Guti well ... but 100+ ABs at his production level is about enough ... "unless" they are seeing some quickness return to his bat that vanished. It's a fine line between veteran entitlement and reasonable patience. There is no perfect number. But, the massive drop in K (and BB) rates ... both about half of normal ... coupled with the danger-zone BABIP ... (it's WAY beyond the 'tough luck' arena) ... tells me something is VERY different with Guti's swing. I'm thinking accelleration/velocity ... but I'll leave the eyes on detective work to the good Dr.