PROPS TO NASCAR. Felix had thrown 130 or so pitches last time around, and Dr. D flicked on the game with eyes peeking through slitted fingers. As a very general rule, long outings the game before mean higher ERA's the game after.
Dr. D's jaw dropped. Felix threw the entire game effortlessly, joyfully, and in absolutely pitch-perfect tune. I wonder if his pitch counts have been holding his career back. I bet they have.
James believes that today's Felix-type horses are not getting enough work - that "stretching out" a guy like Felix is good for him. Unfortunately, Baseball Prospectus' PAP has done its damage, and the dogma has set in. It's not a battle worth fighting, the idea of letting Felix go 130 routinely.
That said: Michael Pineda does labor to get through 100-105 max-effort 97 bullets. The magic age for shoulder maturity in a human male is 25. :- ) Felix has built his arm and shoulder up, it has fully matured, and yowza, this guy is a machine.
Don't forget that Pineda is still a kid. His anatomy is not yet mature. Euro Formula 1 race cars are exciting to watch, but you can't go wrong betting the 800-horse NASCAR monsta.
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PROPS TO FELIX' K RATES. In San Diego we waxed ecstatic about his Pedro mode -- breaking balls and ladder FB's for swinging strike threes.
Only the 2nd game on, Felix takes on a 6-lefty (IIRC) lineup and fans 11 more. He was in Pedro mode again, b'lee Dat. And I'm likin' it.
There are now two AL pitchers with more K's than IP. Guess which two. The M's pitching-Woodstock is getting entirely out of control. Make Glove, Not WAR.
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PROPS TO FELIX' CHANGEUP. Pitch F/X is the new favorite toy, and we aims to get a Ph.D in it.... comparing a given pitcher's movement to the average, and to his other pitches, are the most info-taining areas to mine.
We noticed something weird about Felix' breaking pitches:
That looks like Felix gets 3 inches' extra drop, right? No, hold on lil' doggie:
:blinks: changeups drop (mainly) because they're slower and gravity acts on them. How the deuce is Felix' change thrown at lightspeed - and then it drops much harder than other changeups?
?!?
Felix' SLIDER drops 3 inches more than other pitchers' (quality) sliders -- and, defying gravity, it is thrown 3 mph harder.
Felix' CURVE drops 2 inches extra -- and it is thrown 5 mph harder.
His three breaking pitches look like little Allen wrenches, warping in there with an extra 5' of length and then falling off the table.
..............
Was he doing this in 2008? No, he wasn't. The Tri-Hydra breaking pitches, thrown super hard and with turbo break, began in 2010. But in 2011, it's even worse.
His changeup has developed more and more velocity, and more and more break, and the run values have gone up and up. Here are the runs below average per 100 changeups:
And, yes, it's only in 2010 and 2011 that he's started throwing it 20% of the time.
Tuesday night, he was fanning the Rays at will with his 89-91 dry spitter. I wonder if that is the jumping-off point for Felix deciding to go Pedro on the AL.
Surprising Felix trivia....
3 pitchers since 1900 have topped 180 (MLB) IP in 5 consecutive seasons before the year in which they turn 25:
Chief Bender, 1903-1907
Bert Blyleven, 1971-1975
Felix Hernandez, 2006-2010
4 pitchers since 1900 have topped 1000 (MLB) K's before the year in which they turn 25:
Bert Blyleven, 1327
Bob Feller, 1233
Dwight Gooden, 1067
Felix Hernandez, 1042
From 3 of the most interesting arms in the org (on Saturday):
James Paxton (age 22, A-): 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 9 K
Brandon Maurer (age 20, A+): 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K
Erasmo Ramirez (age 21, AA): 7.1 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
Paxton is older due to essentially taking more than a year off due to eligibility and signing isssues. 54 K in 38.1 IP (12.7 K/9; but 5.9 BB/9).
Ramirez now has 50 K and 5 BB on the season in 11 starts (69.1 IP) and reportedly is creeping up in velocity while maintaining the command (Fister-esque).
Maurer has a 2.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 4 starts FOR HIGH DESERT (that's when folks started to notice Michael Pineda, you know -- when he put up a miniscule WHIP in the pinball Cal League.)
That was a great 1,000 words in 100 words, amigo...Paxton's walks -- I mean, at a certain point 9 K's in 5 innings drag along with them 3-4 walks. If nobody ever makes contact, and with the minor league umps, the deep counts are going to result in a few BB's. Lincecum was similar in college. But as soon as he got better umps, and the hitters started defending themselves a little better, wham, the BB's were gone.Wonder what the holdup is with getting Paxton into AA ... it would have been seriously counterproductive to make Lincecum pitch to babies...
From mlbtraderumors last night:
Felix Hernandez wants to stay in Seattle well beyond the end of his contract in 2014, the reigning Cy Young winner told Manuel Lira at the Venezuelan paper Líder en Deportes. "Hopefully Seattle locks me up further," Hernandez said. "I want to sign for more. At least five years more." As for any chance of being traded to New York or elsewhere, Hernandez dismissed the notion as "just rumors."
Because the Angels announcers (IIRC) were making a big deal out of the fact that Felix in an interview was saying how much he loved being with Seattle now and through his whole contract, but then once the cameras and microphones went off he mentioned "Felix Hernandez, 2014 Yankees" or some such with a smile.
Maybe it was ironic or simply accepting of who would be willing to pay the price - who can say with second-hand gossip (now third-or-fourth-hand as I relate it).
But I'm glad to see he says, "sign me up for long-term duty." If he's still this guy in 2014, by all means, DO IT.
I would love to make Yankees fans who are sure they're gonna get him cry like little schoolgirls in 2014.
Especially after we beat them already for the AL Pennant in 2013. :)
~G