Easy to edit such a list - hard to throw one out there. Muchas gracias...
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Jason Kubel interests, as an alternative to the Beltran-type "they eat the cake, you pay for it" acquisition. Kubel could be a lot more cost-effective.
The question is where Kubel's going to stabilize. At age 26, he put up a 7.1 runs per game season, right up there with the zillionaires.
Last year he regressed to 4.8 runs per game, solely because of luck stats (BABIP and HR/F).
This year he's right back up to the 135-140 OPS+, 7.0 RC/27 game that you pay the Jason Bays and Jayson Werths for.
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A team that believed in the 2008 and 2010 Kubel could wind up getting "excellent" for the price of "good" -- if not for the price of "okay."
Wonder what the Twinkies want for Kubel.
The Ms will have money to spend in 2012, but not as much as it may first appear. As G-Money (I think) pointed out, Felix's contract goes up by $8.5M (from $10M to $18.5M). And Bedard, assuming he's back, will cost more than the $1M he's getting this year.
So it's probably best to figure on one additional bat, who would go at LF (probably) or DH. Nice thing is, as we've discussed before, those are the "easiest" spots to fill "on the market." That's the beauty of Ackley-at-Second.
I bring it up now, because it is probable that many of these guys will be available at the deadline, and it isn't beyond the realm of possibility that Z would go get one now, in Cliff Lee fashion, and hope to re-sign. Or, some of them will not actually be free agents but are arbitration-eligible guys who are getting pricey -- and no reason not to consider getting one of those guys this year either, since I think he wants to have a fairly "complete" team in the second half to make a running start on 2012.
1. Big Dollar Guys
Obviously, there will be a lot of buzz about Prince Fielder, since Jack Z was the guy who drafted him to the Brewers. That being said, I don't really see them investing in someone to be DH-only, and they aren't going to move Smoak. And Fielder will be EX-pensive. But, we know Z loves the power-and-patience combo (seeing how he drafted in Milwaukee, how he wanted A-Gone, how he went and got Smoak), and nobody right now brings it better than Fielder.
Then there are guys like Carlos Beltran, but I don't see them spending mega-bucks on anyone other than Fielder, and even that seems pretty remote.
EDIT: Cool Papa is correct -- the BRASS RING is not Fielder, but Albert Pujols. That's about as likely as Z going out and getting Cliff Lee for a handful of middling prospects. Oh, wait . . .
But where would he play in the field? Any. Where. He. Wants. Sorry, Justin.
Maybe not likely, but: it's not science, it's the Internet. More fun to contemplate than Jason Kubel.
2. Andre Ethier/Matt Kemp
Dodgers are in complete disarray, and who knows what kind of fire-sale they'll have to undergo. Ethier is LH, 29 and has one more year of club control (2012), but already makes $9.25M and would be set for a nice arb award. Career line: .294/.365/.489. Kemp is RH, 26 and also has one more year before FA. He had an ugly 2010, but is hot this year, so he'll be getting an arb bump as well (making $6.95M this year). Also can play CF, which Ethier has not, which could be important depending on Guti's health progress; but Ethier is a better hitter. Career line: .288/.341/.476.
3. Hunter Pence (pictured)
Pence is RH, 28 and has two more seasons before FA (2012 and 13), but already makes $7M and will be arb-eligible. Pence has been as consistent as you can get: 25 HR, 25 HR, 25 HR. Played CF as a rookie, but hasn't since. Don't know if he could back up there or not. Career line: .287/.336/.479.
4. Jason Kubel
Kubel is LH, 29 and in his final year of club control (FA at the end of the year). Makes $5.25M. Twins are going nowhere, so he'll probably be available at the deadline. Consistent 20-HR guy, but doesn't walk as much as you'd like, and is a defensive liability. Career line: .274/.338/.463. For a guy who'd be more of a DH-type, that OBP seems pretty low.
5. Kosuke Fukudome
Apparently Fukudome is effectively a FA. "Club must sign Fukudome to an extension by 11/14/2011 or release him, allowing him to become a free agent." Cubs are not going to extend him, I wouldn't think. Fukudome is LH, 34, and is a guy who gets on base. Played CF in 2009, but I don't know if he could still back up there. Career line: .264/.372/.407. Makes $13.5M this year, but I don't think he'd get that in the FA market.
6. Excess Kansas City Royal
Young Royals like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are racing up the ladder, and something's got to give. Kila Ka'aihuie already got shipped out, to make room for Hosmer. He's intriguing, but 1b-DH only and pretty much Cust-redundant (and has yet to show his OBP skill in the majors). Wilson Betemit is next, who will make room for Moustakas. Betemit was an ex-phenom who took a lot longer to get it than people thought, but resurfaced with KC in '10 and put up strong numbers that he's mostly repeating this year, and he's still only 29. He's played all around the infield, but only a few times in the OF, so he's not really a fit unless Figgins were to disappear, which I don't anticipate. Alex Gordon would be a good fit, now that he's transitioned to LF and found his stroke, and he has two more seasons before FA. But I think the Royals are intending to keep him. Jeff Francouer is only 27 (that's kind of amazing; he came up to the majors at 21), and can opt for FA at the end of the year (he has a mutual option). He's putting up good numbers this year, but the career OBP of .311 is kind of scary.
There's probably a bunch that I'm missing, but just thought I'd start a conversation.
Comments
There is one guy and one guy only who should be in this team's crosshairs, at least when the season ends: Albert Pujols. This org could EASILY afford him and still bolster other parts of the roster. I don't care what the current budget is because the org could add $30 million in payroll without breaking a sweat. Plus, if the team added a superstar who got the team winning again, attendance would skyrocket which would offset a huge chunk of the additional salary.
There is no good reason why the M's have avoided the elite players, and I think our expectations for this organization should reflect that.
Now you're back to Padna and the 2005 anti-scrooge petitions. I looooov eeeet...
The 1995 season, that saved baseball in Seattle, the ownership committee decided to improve the ballclub FIRST (Benes and Coleman) and ask for the attendance LATER.
It got 15-20 years' worth of bennies out of that tiny little trade-deadline decision to invest in the club as a catalyst to financial improvement.
...but where does he play when you draft Rendon for 3B, have Smoak at 1B etc. Do you really think he's gonna want to DH? Think a career NL guy will know how to handle DHing? I mean he COULD...we don't know...but...I'm guessing he won't even seriously consider the Mariners.
Smoak won't complain and you won't lose any defense.
If the M's signed Pujols, how many thousands of season tickets do you think would be sold overnight? The team would make millions of extra dollars before the season even started. And if they won a bunch of games, the attendance would reach 30,000+ in a hurry.
Going all out for Pujols is a no-brainer, but Lincoln and Armstrong are the only people terrified at the thought of adding the best player in baseball ("What if he gets hurt!").
Think about how good this team could be, how fast.
This rotation, and you're going to staple it to a fearsome offense? That's what the 2001 M's did. A day-in, day-out rotation with a top offense. Mulitiple 15-game winning streaks.
Pujols, Fielder, and Jose Reyes all figure to be FAs. All of them are intriguing.
I actually really like the idea of Fielder at DH. You could hand him a 5 year contract and he would only be 33 at the end of it.
33-34 is typically the age when elite DH types start aging so you'd be getting the meat end of his career with a 5-6 year deal.
Lefty DH with BBs and elite power is great fit for the park. Fielder has power to all fields, but most of his production is to the pull-side. As long as he doesn't hit 40 HRs this year you could also probably land him for a reasonable amount.
I'd have nothing against David Ortiz II hitting DH for the M's. Even though it would ossify DH/1B for the M's, the Ortiz/Manny situation worked out all right for the Red Sox. :- )
Only question: would we ask Boras to take Ortiz money, or would we pay Ortiz II as though he weren't a DH?
DH-only sluggers make a (majority) fraction of what 1B's do.
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Same applies to Pujols. Now that the M's have their franchise player at 1B/DH, a second one of those has to take Ortiz money. ... you'd think, anyway.
Switching Smoak to DH and letting Fielder or Pujols play 1B wouldn't change a thing, from the standpoint that the M's would be importing David Ortiz net value.
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Thats the biggest question.. Boras contracts rarely work out. You'd prefer something in the high teens and you also prefer not to go over six years. Something like 6/$108.
If Boras holds out for a Tex-contract then forget it.
They just locked in their good hitting, good fielding, young, cheap first baseman...why would they blow a huge fortune on an older, very expensive not quite as good defense first baseman so that they could convert their young cheap one to a DH? Much more befitting their payroll constraints would be spend on a cheaper DH and a good LF...but...hey...I'd love to have Pujols if he'd even consider playing in this loserberg (as baseball sees us)
Fielder is my fave too, as you say because of his age, left-handedness, and since he'll be a good fit for DH.
My hope is that most teams will see him as a DH, thus limiting his suitors. And that other teams will be scared off by his weight. Those 2 things might keep him somewhat affordable.
David DeJesus is a FA at the end of the year. He's never got much attention because he doesn't hit a lot of HR and was in KC and now Oakland. He's scuffling some with a .252 BABIP in Oakland, but that might keep his price reasonable. Every other year he's been a rock-solid .360 OBP guy. Also played a lot of CF, and ought to be a solid glove in LF.
He'd bring more with the glove and a much better eye than Kubel, but definitely a class below in SLG. Matter of preference, I guess. Kubel is two-and-a-half years younger, too.