=== Scorched Earth Dept. ===
In the first inning today, Michael Pineda threw two changeups. These turned on a particular light bulb that Dr. D had always felt bad about having dark.
Pedro Martinez, in his age-28 season, ran an ERA+ that read, on b-ref.com, 291. Pedro's ERA was 1.74, in a golden-age offensive season that saw many, many players hit 40+ homers.
The best ERA in the AL, other than Pedro's, was 3.70 by Roger Clemens. Only four pitchers were under 4.00, and here Pedro was at 1.74 -- an ERA that would have been terrific in 1912.
Pedro's 1.74 ERA also occurred in Fenway Park, where Nomar Garciaparra batted .372 with 51 doubles and 21 homers.
Pedro's WAR was 10.1 -- the highest total in the AL, other than his, was 5.6 by Brad Radke.
And this was not an isolated incident. Pedro's ERA+ averaged over 200 for seven consecutive years.
.
=== Dissecting the Captured Alien Dept. ===
I've never understood why, either on a sabermetric level or on a scouting level. Fine: he struck out 10-11 men a game. Why does that make his ERA half of Roger Clemens'?
On a scouting level, the one guy who might have helped me, Bill James, had an uncharacteristically weak answer. "Pedro just does everything 10% better than everybody else, and the effect accumulates. It's a critical mass issue." I knew that couldn't be right...
.
=== Eureka! Dept. ===
Coming from a Greek expression in which Archimedes or Romeo or Cyclops or somebody got in the tub, figured out volume by displacement, and ran naked down the street shouting "I have found it" from the Greek "heurisko"...
Friday, Michael Pineda threw two pitches that unlocked the mystery that used to be Pedro Martinez.
.........
Second hitter of the game, lefty Daric Barton, with an 0-1 count, Michael Pineda threw a vicious straight change that left Barton deer-in-the-headlights. It fell below the zone for a 1-1 count.
The next two pitches were pointless. Fastball 96, Barton didn't even flinch, called strike 1-2.
Slider high, right down the middle, Barton didn't even flinch, turned and walked away, strike three.
.........
Third hitter of the game, David DeJesus, 1-1 count, Pineda threw another straight change.
He not only struck DeJesus out,* but Pineda also struck the umpire out -- see pitch 3 above.
We kid you not: neither the umpire nor DeJesus could process the pitch. We've seen this happen occasionally over the years: a pitcher throws a ball right down the middle and neither the batter nor the ump process it.
(The fifth pitch, a slider on the hands, DeJesus fought off for a 3-bounce grounder that had eyes and went up the middle for a scratch single.)
.
=== Thank You Michael ===
It suddenly occurred: Like Michael Pineda in the '010's, like Curt Schilling in the '00's, Pedro Martinez in the '90's could throw a high-90's fastball located.
(The only other guy I recall, who threw 94-98 with real good command, was the young Bartolo Colon -- like Schilling, Colon wasn't much for offspeed stuff either.)
When Pedro threw his overhand yakker, or his fadeaway change, those pitches were overkill. His 96 mph with command -- THAT was the element that gave Pedro the game before it started, and the secondary pitches just made it a turkey shoot.
Schilling never had much in the way of secondary stuff, but if he had, he'd have made jokes out of MLB games much like Pedro did.
I never quite got it, about Pedro's 96 into a teacup, why that would strike Jay Buhner out in every AB. But finally I get the 1998 Pedro Martinez. The batters, being prideful MLB'ers, were always looking fastball first, couldn't do anything with that even if they got it, and ...
You can only ask so much of a human being. Fighting off located 97 fastballs, moving unpredictably around the strike zone --- > that max'ed the batter's attention out. Anything added to that, and you've got a broken game.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
This is getting silly.
96.1 mph average fastball
2.24 tERA
70.3 F-Strike%
13.1 SwS%
72.9 CT%
39.1 O-Swing%
The only reason Pineda isn't striking out 10 guys per game is because hitters are swinging at 51.8% of his pitches.
He probably won't be THIS good all season long, but WOW.
But this is the first time since 1998 I've seen the opposing hitters take the field with this kind of alarm in their eyes.
The overall ambience is what it used to be when the Big Unit was pitching.
............
Don't know if he'll be this good, or not as good, or better, but (a) he's going to strike out more guys than this and (b) he's going to learn a lot...
League's 95.6 mph is #7 in the AL and NL combined... and not many of the top 10 guys can command their 94-98 fastballs around the zone.
Pineda has been six closers back-to-back. Elite closers.
Maybe somebody can think of a nickname off that. :- ) National anthem done, here comes the closer?
last year about Ubaldo Jimenez. "Pitches like a closer every inning." 161 ERA+ in Coors, 3rd in the NL Cy; also averaged 96.1. Of course, that was his 4th year in the majors and he led the league in wild pitches. Pineda is already like an advanced version of 2010 Jimenez and with better command.
Jimenez is off to a horrible start this year after a DL stint, but 2010 Ubaldo would be an interesting comp to analyze.
..Jiminez was absolutely amax effort pitcher on every throw. You could hear a loud grunt on every throw. Seriously...I've seen a few Rockies games and heard that man throw...he had good command throwing that hard, which is impressive...but you throw that hard 100 times every five days and your arm will explode.
Pineda is NOT max effort. At all. He throws free and easy...I think his injury risk is considerably lower.
Leaving the comp question aside for the moment, having Pineda join Felix in the rotation is like having Cliff Lee last year, except that this time the man is staying and his salary, for now, is not even a budget consideration. One other difference, Lee went deep into games. But in terms of (a) raising the watchability factor of games, and (b) giving a pathetic offense a chance at narrow wins, the effect is the same.
Most of the time as an MLB-watching veteran I have most looked forward to watching my team take its turn at bat. Last year and this, that has reversed.
I always felt that Randy and Roger wanted to break the will of the opposing time. That in their hearts they wanted the hitter to know what was coming, but still get the strike out. While Pedro was more than happy to throw a 97 mph fastball into the small of the back of a hitter that crowded the plate, he seemed to take pleasure is confounding the hitter. I'm probably wrong, but Pedro's pitching style didn't seem to change all that much as he velocity declined due to wear and tear. After the injuries in 2001, he came back throwing in the low 90s high 80s, but still had 4 all-star years left in his arm.
It wasn't until his velocity was regularly in the Doug Fister Jason Vargas range that he no longer was a premier pitcher, and it wasn't clear if that was mostly velocity or an equal decline in command.
Taro,
Now that you've seen Pineda some more, what is you opinion of his mechanics? Still worrisome?
First time since 1998 that I haven't felt bad about the Mariners flushing Randy Johnson.
since by then his command will be even better and he'll have polished the sheen on his offspeed stuff.
Was thinking the same thing about Pedro: at 92 he was a star. You take a craftsman like that and give him Nolan Ryan stuff, well.... you've got a broken game.
Right now Pineda looks to me like all the Doc Goodens and Kerry Woods we ever saw come down the pike. Can't imagine what the "adjustment" is going to be to 97 mph on the black.