As you say, Doc, we've been grabbing these free-swinging tools players forever, and watching them flame out just as often. The only one I can think of with a terrible eye who climbed out to be a good major leaguer anyway is Adam Jones, and that's because he's at a glove position.
We kept trying though. Denny Almonte and Danny Carroll are two more that irritate me.
Carroll: 90:342 rate in 1116 ABs. He's also made of glass and can't stay healthy long enough to improve. Which is too bad, because of the two he's the one I thought from day one had a better shot.
Almonte: 86:526 rate in 1353 ABs. He struck out 192 times last year. One. Nine. Two. We took him in the 2nd round. You know who the next pick was?
Mike Stanton.
My rage on draft day was fairly boundless, especially after I saw video of the Almonte. Ugh.
We seem to be going a different direction with our domestic draft these days (though sloppy tools guys like Jabari Blash will always be drafted just to see what happens). Internationally, it's hard to get players with a great eye. When you find one, as Choi might be, then hold onto him and see what you can do.
Otherwise, you tend to be fighting rearguard actions against Ks. Morla, Morban, Pimentel and crew are all straws drawn against long odds. I really want them to overcome em.
I'm just glad we're no longer drawing such early long odds in the domestic draft.
~G
Saber-Scope: Here is one more guy who looks great in the batter's box, who runs a nauseating K/BB ratio ... and who hits the minor-league windshield like a bug. As soon as the pitching gets even a leeeetle better.
Martinez has 55 walks and 302 strikeouts lifetime, and we are talking about the very low minors here, amigos. Where the pitchers have enough of a worry in just getting the ball over the plate at all, much less to some particular part of it.
SSI has been watching the M's since what, 1977. In 1977, and in 2010, and in every year in between, they've brought in the hack-o-matics who look like .320 standing still. And figured they could teach these studs how to work the strike zone.
Billy Beane doesn't teach batters how to draw a walk (and neither do his emissaries). He acquires players who are interested in taking a pro idea into the battle.
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You might ask, what's the difference between signing Mario Martinez, vs. signing Julio Morban. It's a great question, and if anybody asks it besides me, I'll take a cut at it :- )
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Age-Arc: In 2010, the Mariners put the 20-year-old Martinez in full season A ball at Clinton.
This was ambitious, and if you disregard the 55/302 EYE, understandable. Had Martinez played well at Clinton, he'd have been on perfect track for star prospect, that being:
- Age 22 - Plays real well in AAA
- Age 21 - Great in AA
- Age 20 - Stars in A ball
- Age 19 - Looks good in first taste of the pro's
That's what terrific prospects do. For example, it's exactly what Shin-Soo Choo did. The idea is that if you're real good at 22 at one level, then at 25 you'll be real good at the next level, and that level is the majors.
So the M's were hoping for a jackpot, and instead they had to reel Martinez back to the AquaSox halfway through the season.
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8D? What Say? Gordon and Deloney, at HQ, still give Martinez a shot of becoming an impact ML player.
This is based on the possibility that Martinez will make strides with his BB/K ratio. Of course, this is not impossible, not impossible in the sense that it's impossible for Ichiro to come to camp four pounds overweight.
But here are five leagues' worth of EYE trends for the lad:
- 2010 - 0.15 walks per strikeout
- 2009 - 0.19
- 2009 - 0.22 (at Clinton, the harder league that year)
- 2008 - 0.21
- 2007 - 0.19
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Quid Pro Quo Dept. Supposing that Martinez did post an 0.40 EYE this season? Boom. He's back in the top 10.
Could you tell I was in a bad mood? :- ) As far as these 0.15 guys are concerned.
Baseball is about the strike zone.
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Give the M's credit, though. They're moving from Central America over to the Pacific Rim. Eventually they'll reap the benefits, if they'll stick with the BB-heavy Choi's that they come up with.
Comments
I think I'm a little behind the curve on yer there Gordon... probably because this is the first time I went through the minors systematically and its like EYES WIDE MOUTH OPEN at the 18 guys who led their leagues in HR's and in K's...
On draft day?! for Almonte, eh...
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Morban IMHO a special case. He's so young. And lefty.
This was a list that Marco put together at the end of August of guys running bad AB:K marks (4.4 AB:K and below). I wanted to show what their eye ratio was like, since you CAN survive bad AB:K lines if you can get on base a lot.
AB:K and Eye ratio (walks-to-strikeouts) in 2010:
Denny Almonte, High Desert ... .13 eye
Mario Martinez, Clinton ... .15
Kalian Sams, Clinton ... .18
Dwight Britton, Everett ... .19
Gabriel Noriega, Clinton ... .20
Steve Baron, Everett ... .21
Daniel Carroll, Clinton ... .22
Gregory Halman, Tacoma ... .22
Ramon Morla, Pulaski ... .24
Jose Rivero, Pulaski ... .27
Matt Mangini, Tacoma ... .27
So those guys are all dead to me, basically, until that stat improves significantly (and keep in mind I'm really interested in Morla and I like Mangini's swing potential). If you can't manage a .3 EYE in the minors, you're odds of doing it in the bigs are loooong, and no walks + hundreds of Ks is not a good skill for pro ball. Mario Martinez is not someone I have ever had high hopes for.
The next list is of those over this line. I'm gonna give AB:K and eye for these. Note where the newer system additions over the last couple years fall.
Carlos Peguero, West Tenn ... .31 eye, 2.7 AB:K
Dennis Raben, High Desert ... .31, 3.2
Alex Liddi, West Tenn ... .34, 3.5
Johermyn Chavez, High Desert ... .39, 3.8
Nick Franklin, Clinton ... .43, 4.1
Vince Catricala, Clinton ... .49, 4.2
James Jones, Clinton ... .49, 4.4
Rich Poythress, High Desert... .52, 4.8
Ji-Man Choi, 2 levels... .69, 4.6
Nate Tenbrink, 2 levels... .69, 4.7
Kyle Seager, High Desert... .76, 5.9
Dustin Ackley, two levels... .95, 6.3
Justin Smoak, Tacoma... .98, 4.6
The guys at the bottom of this list are far higher on my prospect listings than the guys at the top. And almost all of the guys at the bottom of the list have been added in the last 2-3 years. Liddi, Chavez, Franklin, Catricala, Jones, Poythress, Choi, Tenbrink, Seager, Ackley and Smoak are the vast majority of the Ms interesting hitting prospects. I don't think that's a coincidence.
Teaching athletes to hit has never worked that well for the Mariners. I'm glad we've added far more baseball players to the minor leagues than we were previously. Our infatuation with guys who run fast and leap high but can't put a bat on the ball consistently has only really panned out with Adam Jones. It's not a ratio I like.
As I said before, guys like Guillermo Pimentel (.09 eye (!!) and 3.2 AB:K) and Ramon Morla (.13 and 3.1 last year) get a bit of a break from me, as this is their first taste of organized ball. The scouts thought they were worth millions and I don't have enough info yet to gainsay em.
But Choi ranks higher for me because it's his first taste stateside as well and he crushed the competition as a teenager.
Now if only we knew his position...
~G
Instead of the Mendoza Line, the Mangini Line.
Two thoughts:
Their willingness to acquire guys like Choi and Seager who can hit, hit, hit and get on base -- and then figure out where to put them on the field.
The 09 draft -- Ackley, Franklin, Poythress, Seager, Jones, Catricala -- six interesting bats in the first 10 rounds. Steve Baron is only a sour note because you wonder what kind of hitter they might have gotten when they were on that kind of Guitar-Hero virtuoso run.