Our resident NL specialist has Doc Scissorhands rock'ed again:
No, Cappy isn't a star. I've actually always liked Cappy. When Milwaukee traded SEXSON to Arizona, I thought Cappy would be the real value they got. Didn't turn out quite so well, though.
AGREED agreed agreed.
We are not talking about a star with Chris Capuano, any more than we ever were talking about (say) Jarrod Washburn.
You're talking about a safe 100, 110 ERA+ and for me, that's a legit #3 starter behind two aces. But Capuano's chance to star? Is practically zero, because ...
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Here's the thing, though. Cap's HR problems are REAL. He had fantastic numbers in the minors, (a 0.5 HR rate). But, in the majors, he's been consistently around 1.3. But, this has NOT been a park-effect. He's *MUCH* worse on the road - 62 road HRs 48 home - in 75 fewer innings.
Concur, assent, subscribe.
Capa's homer problems are not only real ... they're actual, they're genuine, they're inescapable, they're authentic, they're corporeal, they're... [pick any synonym and Dr. D will sign off]
The dude throws 88 mph, string-straight, letter-high. He'd give up homers to Brendan Ryan. ... those 1.3 homers are the reason he isn't a #1 starting pitcher.
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So, before you go adjusting for Safeco, understand that the numbers suggest Cappy was ALREADY getting a major home park edge where he was. (I'm no expert on Miller Field - just saying what the numbers indicate).
On this one, permit us to diverge a bit.
The logic here is 100% sound. In theory, Capuano's gopheritis could have been worse, if anything, than 1.3.
But here is where I've got to pull rank a bit :- ) our NL expert doesn't watch 20-30 games per year from Safeco's upper deck, as I do. Baby, you've got to see that park effect to bee-leeve it.
It's next to impossible for a LHP to give up lots of homers in Safeco, just as it's next to impossible for a RH hitter :coughBeltrecough: to do anything with the LF fence.
Just an opinion.
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Sabermetrically: Capuano's HR per OF Fly Ball have always been a good steady 11.5 to 12%. It's tough for any pitcher to get much higher than that.
Washboard's were under 9% for the M's, and you can't throw any slower, straighter or higher in the zone than he did...
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Anything's possible. But all things considered, I'll give you 2:1 odds that Capa would run a surprisingly nice HR rate in Safeco.
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My take on Cappy in Safeco would be he'll suffer the "normal" NL to AL 1/3 of a run increase in ERA - making him a 4.30-4.50 pitcher in Seattle. Yes, *IF* Seattle can reduce his HR rate to under 1.0, he's got the chops to be a decent #2. But, this is not a guy "likely" to see a big gain from moving from a hostile to a friendly park. His road career ERA of 4.66 likely goes to over 5.00 in the AL, regardless of how much Safeco helps.
Agreed. Asking Chris Capuano to run an HR rate of zero-plus? 87 mph letter high? This is the big leagues. Fuhgeddaboudit.
Capa ain't an impact pitcher, but a 7-strikeout Jarrod Washburn would synch with Safeco quite nicely. He can pitch #3 for me any time.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Hes probably a #4-5 SP in the AL on a neutral team, but his EXTREME RH/LH splits make him a low-end #3 for the Ms.
Hes not actually a good pitcher. 812 OPS vs non-pitchers and 903 interleague OPS.
He is the perfect pitcher to exploit Safeco though. 812 OPS vs RHs, 625 OPS vs LHs
Double whammy. Nukes his trade value, but they still need to go through arb with him.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2013808215_david_aard...
Therefore, makes Capuano less likely, too.
Wash is an interesting comp. (and not an unfair one).
But, it's an error to consider Cappy a "7-K" version of Wash. He's more like a 6-K version of Wash, once you remove the K-per-game he was getting pitching to HoRam and Jeff Weaver.
But, a 6-K version of Wash is still a good thing. (If you equate Washburn's 'better-than-FIP' career results to the extra whiffage, it gets even more interesting).
But, here is where it is REAL important to look at actual stats from actual players before going with the gut or even the "What I've seen with my own eyes" data.
Washburn in Anaheim ran ... 1.2 HR rates. He had a career year (2002) with a 0.8, which he immediately gave back with a 1.5 the next. Then he moves to Safeco - with its "you have to see it to believe it" caramel candy left field air.
His HR rates the first three years in Safeco: 1.2 ... 1.1 ... 1.1 ...
His miracle 2009 season ... he did exactly what he did back in 2002 ... he ran a 0.7 for 20 games ... was traded to Detroit - and was sooooo bad the rest of the season, he ended up at 1.2 for the year.
Wash also ran 4.67; 4.32; 4.69 ERAs those first three years.
Yes, the Seattle defense stunk those years ... but Washburn also had a 109 career ERA+, about 5 points better than what Cappy has shown.
The point here is NOT to try and dismiss Cappy as a target - but to set up realistic expectations. If everything works out right - (defense remains stellar - new league effect works in his favor for a year -- park effect helps out) -- yes, he might run a 3.90 ERA. If things go south, he could pitch "so-so" and be taking the 5.10 to Yuma.
The key point of the discussion from MY perspective is that the Ms very, very much need a "reliable" veteran innings eater - who may end up 8-16 by year end - but would still manage around 200 innings.
IMO, the club having Felix + Lee in 2010 was a boost to the performance of ALL the other SPs. Even with Lee missing some time early - the players understood they were REALLY the #3 - #5 pitchers, and were battling for THOSE slots - not the top two slots. By the time Lee was gone, there was no PRESSURE for anyone to step in a "be the #2".
If the rotation begins as: Felix then genuflect, genuflect, genuflect ... you're setting up a situation where all four guys are thinking *I* need to be the #2 ... which I view as a recipe for disaster. They'll already be entering a season where they'll be expecting 3 runs of support on a good day. The "need" to be extra-fine is going to be the psychological mind field the rotation is going to have to try and avoid.
The likely manifestation for the solid control guys is going to be a spike in gopheritis. For the newbies (Pineda?) who may have control issues when transitioning - it'll be running BB rates that look like Washburn K-rates.
Getting in (even a 1-year rental) of an SP that can produce 200 innings and get the "title" of #2 starter would be high on my list of things to do to try and help all your young arms actually show what they can really do. (I think the club needs some veteran stability in the pen, too - somebody in the ... Dan Wheeler class of bullpen arm ... who will cost 2-3 million, is content to be a setup guy ... and just quietly provide 60-70 innings of slightly above replacement level production.
You see, from MY perspective, there is an inherent difference in the moves you need to make to COMPETE compared to the moves you need to make to DEVELOP talent. And Seattle hasn't done the latter for most of the decade. So, when Z makes a "developmental" move, it looks strange or pointless to the masses. I have a sense that Olivo (and dropping of Johnson) was a developmental move. Remove the "illusion" that Moore has to hit "RIGHT NOW", which was the case in 2010.
My take on development is that it is basically impossible to DEVELOP more than one starting pitcher at time. If you try, everyone loses, because you can't concentrate on anyone. People forget that Glavine was completely home grown - but Smoltz was developed (in the minors) by Detroit. And, of course, Maddux already had a Cy Young before going to the Braves. (Charlie Liebrandt was the veteran glue on those first couple of playoff teams).
Glavine got a full year ('88) when he was THE guy being developed - (Smoltz got a September callup). Then, in '89, Smoltz was THE guy being developed as Glavine had "got it" by the end of 1988. And then Average got a taste in '90 - and got his first full season to develop in '91.
It was about as perfect a bam-bam-bam development sequence as one could ever dream of, (though Avery would get hurt, fold up, and was never the same ).
One subtle plus for Felix is that the club was NOT developing other SPs when he came on board. It is likely that the choices to go and get guys like Wash and Batista was actually a big help, (though I think the goal in those years was to compete - not develop).
IMO, you try and let 4 young, shaky arms *ALL* try to take their game up - what you're going to have is a multiple EOF-style pileup. You can try and TELL your SPs -- "Just pitch like you're capable" all you want. If you've got Felix and Lee at the front of the rotation, they'll listen a LOT more readily than if they're all trying to be the team #2.
If the rotation begins as: Felix then genuflect, genuflect, genuflect ... you're setting up a situation where all four guys are thinking *I* need to be the #2 ... which I view as a recipe for disaster.
Agree with you here San-Man.
You put Doug Fister on Day 2, and that's a great way to get him out of synch.
Get the Doogies, and Vargasi, and Paulies, worrying about being skipped in the rotation. Much better way to get them into a comfort zone.
cpoints
Double whammy. Nukes his trade value, but they still need to go through arb with him.
Therefore, makes Capuano less likely, too.
Dumb question. Do they have to go through arb? Is that a player's union issue?
I wouldn't feel bad, AT ALL, taking my two years of Aardsma and just kickin' him to the curb. What'd he cost us?
Reportedly $1.5M base salary plus incentives
Usually performance that earns incentives is 50 cents on the dollar or less.
I thought the arguments were going to be in the $3-5M range. Huh. Mets got quite a starting pitcher for #3-bullpen-guy money.
I guess the Mariners know things we don't about Bedard, Robles and Pineda for 2011 :- )