In the Mariner Central 10 Questions post that Lonnie is putting up this week, he asked us,
Q2 - Who is most likely to fail in 2010?
SSI Answer - David Aardsma we've talked about ... I like Shandler's argument that Saunders isn't ready yet. Jack Wilson hasn't proven he can defend himself against AL pitching. Ian Snell is at a crossroads and at no time in 2009 did he show what he needed to show, IMHO.
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MtGrizzly pointed out this article by Baseball Daily Digest's David Golebiewski, which follows on this BP article and this one by Baseball Prospectus' Eric Seidman.
These articles find that although Snell's fastball registered 91.7 on the gun in 2009, Snell's "perceived speed" was actually more like 87.6 mph.
The reasons for this are many:
- Snell is short, takes a short stride, and throws the ball from a longer distance
- Snell throws the ball into the outside area of the plate that creates the slowest perceived velocity
- Snell throws the ball into the lower part of the plate that creates the slowest perceived velo
- Snell shows the ball early and has terrible deception (SSI remark)
In this August article, Seattle Sports Insider published the same opinion, that hitters were seeing his FB far too well, and that Snell's insistence on throwing so many low-away FB's was guaranteeing his failure.
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It's nice to see sabermetricians come up with the sort of math that helps the saberdudes realize that batters, catchers and scouts know what they're talking about on the following points:
- It's much easier to get around on an away FB than on a jam pitch
- It's much harder to get around on a high FB
- A short-arm or deceptive delivery can add 2-5 mph to a pitch
- The classic (and most inherently effective) attack is hard inside, soft away
- etc
On these points, saberdudes are climbing over a mountaintop to see scout-yogis who have been sitting there since John McGraw. :- )
On Brandon Morrow, for example, it has always been our argument that Morrow has an effective +3mph to whatever the radar gun is showing. David Aardsma is the same. George Sherrill. Erik Bedard. These pitchers are among those who throw harder than the gun shows.
Sabermetrics has now given its stamp of approval to "apparent velocity" and "deception." The attribute of deception has been moved from the saber category of "baloney dump" to "scientifically-measured fact." Bravo!
Felix Hernandez doesn't get the same effective velo as the gun shows (though he's a great pitcher, of course). Snell is the poster boy for easy-to-read FB's. Mark Lowe, for whatever reason, doesn't have a lot of deception on his FB.
Probably we should post a list... like we say, batters and scouts know exactly which pitchers are a foot or two longer or shorter than the gun shows. Maybe Taro can post a list of which ML pitchers have good FB run values despite low velocities. :- )
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=== Dr's Diagnosis Dept. ===
Snell's woeful results the last two years have not been accidental. It's not poor performance, not a slump, nothing like that. His lousy results simply reflect the fact that his FB is very easy to hit.
Snell must change the eye levels with his FB to have any chance at all -- but be aware that his clocked 92 mph fastball will always be more like an 89 fastball. This is due to his height and lack of deception.
The M's have a lot of pitchers on the "buy" list. Right now, Ian isn't on it. Write up your 2010 rotations using other pitchers.
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=== Good News Dept. ===
If he learns to moving the FB around the zone -- use the jam pitch, hit the letters, learn to nibble, etc -- and features his excellent slider -- and sharpens his change, Snell could eventually develop into an innings eater, probably in the National League.
That's what innings eaters do. They learn to pitch despite the fact that they can't throw their fastballs by anyone. The innings eater is not an extinct animal.
#3-4 starter is his upside, but that's quite a ways away.
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Ian Snell is young, rich, healthy, and in the major leagues. :- ) He's got some work to do before his next 12-win season. A lot of folks would trade places with him.
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=== Second Opinion Dept. ===
Don't miss Taro's assessment. IMHO he just does a super job, pitcher after pitcher, of finding the key points of discussion. Nice (for me) to see that he and I are on the same page on Snell.
My $0.02,
Dr D