I love most of Shandler's stuff - and for the most part he's on target with tons of stuff. But, I gotta note that I am annoyed every time I see him cite BABIP% followed immediately by strand%. It makes it "sound" like there are two different things being measured, and both agree with each other. IMO, they are largely measuring the same thing. In all honesty, I cannot recall an instance where Shandler noted the two NOT agreeing.
If you're allowing a 33% BABIP **OF COURSE** your strand percentage is going to be bad, (unless you're fanning 18/9). I would be interested to see cases where the two diverge, as that 'might' reveal something, (though I have no idea what).
That said, Shandler also assumes league average defense behind every pitcher. He cites the .270 BABIP for Aardsma - with the implication that he was egregiously lucky, and that couldn't possibly continue. Well, the BABIP for the entire Seattle staff was .274. So, it's not a reach to say Aardsma's .270 BABIP was driven, not by luck, but by having the best defense in all of baseball behind him every day.
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Overall, however, I agree that the trade for League was a brilliant hedge bet on Aardsma. And while I have little doubt that Z is listening for feelers on double-A, I see no reason to believe his stock as a tradeable commodity is even remotely close to that of Putz. The upside on Putz was based on a drastically better previous performance that had lasted for more than one season. With Putz, because of the health issues, he was an "elite" closer for a couple of seasons - and offered up during a "buy low" cycle for a team desperate for bullpen help.
Aardsma is a guy with known control problems coming off a career year. He's a "sell high" candidate, certainly -- but everyone in baseball understands he's major risk territory. (The fact that Eddie and Putz both tanked badly after leaving Safeco likely ain't helping his sale price, either).
Certainly, look for someone willing to overpay. But, for the life of me, I don't understand why the Seattle fan base is under the delusion that the bullpen was really good in 2009. It wasn't. Like the rotation, it was meh with a great defense behind it. The relief K/BB was 10th in the AL, and the 1.03 HR/9 was sad (considering the park). My opinion - the club actually needs BOTH Aardsma and League. The club at this "hopes" that one or more of the failed Z starters actually develops into a legit bullpen force. But, at the moment, that is just hope.
Q. Is Aardsma any good?
A. Sure he is. He's a white-knuckle power reliever. There's a place for every pitcher who can strike out 10 men per game.
We're not trying to draw Disney pastel cartoon characters here. Guys who fan 10, and walk 5, have a role.
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Q. Why is he good?
A. Aardsma's "max-effort" -- ahem, broken -- delivery creates a hide-the-ball, short-arm effect.
He might register 95 on the gun, but that can look like 97, 98 when you're short-arming it from behind your ear. Add another 1-2 mph for a hitter trying to catch a letter-high pitch.
Aardsma doesn't fan 10 men a game by no blinkin' mistake. He's effectively wild -- he's not sure where it's going, so how can the hitter know --
And he's throwing, effectively, 97-99 up in the zone. His fastball is a really excellent pitch.
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The problemo, of course, is the price tag associated. The homers. He dodged a bullet last year. But it says here that his career 4.28 FIP is about right for what he'll do the next five years -- 10k, 4-5 walks, 1.3 homers.
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Q. Can you close with 10k, 5bb, and 1.3 homers?
A. You can't, no. You'll never find a guy who reliably saved games with that profile.
They can be neat as the 4th reliever in a great bullpen. They're fun when you have 2 or 3 men on base and you want to roll the dice, hoping for a quick nuke of a rally -- win or lose the game right there.
Guys like Aardsma, Armando Benitez, Bobby Ayala (hey, he was good at times) -- you bring them in and in Strat-O-Matic, it's like "okay, Teixeira's card doesn't count. The white die rolled 4-5-6. We're using Aardsma's card for this AB.
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Q. What did your hero Shandler say about Aardsma?
A. Believe me or don't... I didn't look him up until just now. I figgered if Ron got this one wrong, I'd listen to what he had to say... How's that fer swagger. :- )
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Yep, I knew I could count on Mr. HQ. Keep in mind that he gets all these players right in 30 cities, not one.
He lists "four reasons to be skeptical", paraphrasing just to be safe. The below all refer to his 2009 season:
- xERA is high (3.99) so ERA is very misleading
- BABIP is far below historical levels (27% as opposed to 33%) ... and
- ... Strand % was wayyyy too favorable (80% compared to normal 70%, and Aardsma's been at 65% historically)
- Extreme fly ball split (implied HR risk)
- History of CTL problems
Ron finishes with, "2H CMD is a step, but this is not a stud-closer profile. Caution."
He means, Aardsma did step up his second half K/BB to 8.7/3.1. If you were an Aardsma fan, that would be the thread of hope you'd cling to. That he's going to gain location as he goes along.
I don't think that the mechanics permit this. Even if the mechanics permitted it, you're talking about one pitch, a short-arm, rising FB up in the zone. You're not going to make a career off that.
Aardsma's been a good soldier, and can help the M's off and on. If it's my team, I say "THANK YOU VERY MUCH" on that 2009 season and I trade for Brandon League.
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Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Aardsma might not be the best, but pitching is always at a premium. Sandy's comment reminds me of a commercial:
To an ape:
Q: Do you want one banana or two?
A: The Ape would signal two.
Q: Would you like one girlfriend or two?
A: The ape would signal two.
Q: Would you like one large pizza or two?
Here, we are faced with the question: would you like one closer, or two?
What's our answer?
How many skin of your teeth games has there been where you are hoping pleading that the manager will stretch the rules, just this one time, and bring in the closer in the seventh or eighth inning.
What's wrong with stretching the rules every game? Always having two closers? Why can't we have Nelson, and Sasaki? K-Rod and Percival, Charlton and that other guy?
Aardsma may have been replaced by a better pitcher, but the Mariners are not so good that they don't have a place for a pitcher who strikes out 40 percent of his opponents.
Z is beginning to condition his fans to expect big things from their team, as if thee M's were a big market team like the Red Sox or Yankees.
How about that pennant?
Regards,
Mojician
First three complaints on Aardsma:
1. Bad xERA
2. Bad H% :- )
3. Bad strand rate :- ) :- )
Yeah. You're absolutely right.
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So what do we say. Aardsma's ERA shoulda been about 4. :shrug:
Which you don't judge a reliever by his ERA, but folks impressed by the 1+, shouldn' be.
Also reminds of Jerry Jones asking Neon Deion, "what'll it be Deion? Fifteen, Twenty million?" :- )
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In Strat-0-Matic, two closers would be great... in fact, Rivera-Papelbon-KRod-Broxton is the perfect bullpen...
In the clubhouse, they want one superman, for whatever reason... it says here that if you trust Aardsma with your psychological cookies, you're going to wind up tossing them... now, as your #4 short man, it is a different subject ... losing a lead in the 7th once in a while on an HR, that doesn't gutkick a team...
Don't mean to get too harsh with David Aardsma... the man is miles ahead of me as an athlete, and his CPA is miles ahead of mine as well :- )
The bullpen definetly ended up being a weakness in '09. The trade for League shows Z is aware of this.
All this is true, but I'd add that Aardsma low Hr/Fb% are somewhat repeatable (low career rate and also in Safeco) and his strange LH/RH splits make him a good candidate for the park as well.
Considering the defense in addition I'd bet on an ERA in the mid to high 3s. I'd definetly trade him if someone valued him like a quality closer, but its looking like another Jose Lopez situation here..
As you said hes fine as middle reliever, but I don't see him as an elite bullpen arm.
If there's anyplace for him to be effective, throwing skyball after skyball, it's here and now, yeah...
You're right. Aardsma's career HR totals are pretty solid, especially given the F/G ratio. He was at 18 HR's in 145 innings before 2009, about 1.1 per game, nothing tragic. It's not like he's Bert Blyleven.
If you only look at the pitcher your results at HR/FB is right.
But in real game there are batters who have a defense swing which is shorter and for contact.
Boone had that swing and used it after strike2.
It was very easy to watch because he changed how he stands.
Now in the 9th inning facing a ccloser with high K rate.
If the batter swings for contact the HR/FB goes down doesn't it?
I just wonder why everybody looks only at the pitcher...
Not sure how much it synchs up with what the ol' eyes saw last year... healthy cuts at the ball and OF's on the warning track, closer to it...
Or not...
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Sabermetrically, the guys with excellent change-speed games (Moyer, the young Zito, etc) draw the defensive swings and low H%'s... but, that would indeed be an interesting study, is there a 9th-inning effect on BABIP caused by conservative swings...
I think BABIP does not change so much when the batter choose to have a shorter conservative swing.
HR/FB does.