DISCLAIMER DEPT.  I liked Olson coming out of AAA and worked hard to get him onto my roto teams.  I'm hardly biased against the lad. 

And his life is hardly over, after a couple of bad trips around the league.

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Justin, who lives in Baltimore, won the ESPN All-Star league this year.  He was one of the original 1995 STATS AOL brat pack that dominated local cyberspace during its first couple of eons.  :- )

We ax,

“What was the problem with Olson translating his K/BB’s to the major leagues? Did they chase him out of the strike zone?”

Justin sez,

Olson’s got no command of his changeup, so he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher with a high-80’s fastball but a killer slurve. There were a few games where he was absolutely hammered.

The one thing I will say is he profiles as an overachiever. He was on the O’s pregame show many times discussing different deliveries he’s working on and comparable star pitchers with great enthusiasm. He apparently also has been noted for a strong work ethic. Seems to be the type that overcomes limited talent with a true love of the game.

Let's combine the pitcher template with these three facts:

1) Olson was sensational in the minor leagues, especially with respect to his K/BB ratios.  He butchered AAA hitters to a fine julienne.  He's got a career 380/125 control ratio, with a mere 0.6 gopher rate -- and that includes his very first game in the minors, now.

2)  Olson was very effective in his first 2008 trip around the AL:  4.03 ERA on June 1, and he was fanning 7 men a game there for a while.

3) After the big leaguers saw him a time or two, they plastered him:  5.8/4.8/1.2 to the tune of a (gasp) 8.03 ERA in the second half.

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How does this pitcher template ring up such high K's and low BB's in AAA?  Because the change-speed DOES confuse very young hitters.  The kids in Cheney can hit a 96 fastball, and they can check their swings on good sliders.  But the Barry Zito, Johann Santana speed mix can and will leave them flailing.

Lefties like this, in AAA, get lots of swings and misses, and lots of called strikes, without having to be so fine.  THIS is the kind of guy you're talking about, not Jorge Campillo, when you worry about his game translating to the majors.

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If Olson really throws 88 and has less than sharp command, a work ethic isn't going to help him.  Lefties like this (read:  lefties whose fastballs are super easy to hit) need to nibble.  To nibble without falling behind, they need David Wells command.

Have seen Olson a few times myself, and the hook is a plus pitch, but I didn't really realize he threw well under 90 (which Fangraphs confirms he does).

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Which brings us to 2H 2008:  5.8 strikeouts and 4.8 walks a game, in the second half ... why?  Because the realization dawned that if he left the strikezone, um, "over the plate" (where the umpires call that a "strike," ML hitters are going to splash him.

Leaving us with smoke and mirrors and tricks for a couple of years -- and the reason the Cubbies would give him up as a throwin.

I like Olson personally, but will hold off investing any hope in him.  That's just me.

Now, RRS, if his arm bounces back, that is another subject.  :- )

Cheers,

Dr D