1
Good points Doc, I couldn't agree more about the acquisition of Aardsma. My shrinking (!) gut tells me that Aardsma may play a rather large part in the M's '09 system.
Lonnie
POTD David Aardsma
Q. Is Aardsma a special talent? Is the idea that you can't teach 9K a game, so you'll go to work on it?
A. If you want guys whose pitches are hard to see, but who haven't put it together yet, there are a lot of them around. If you want a feel for it, go to THT stats, and filter by K/G unqualified.
That said, Aardsma does go through stretches in which he blows away 23 guys in 13 innings, stuff like that. Aardsma can be scary.
.
Q. What are the chances that this would be 2009 in which he jells?
A. We remember a quote from Bill James on Randy Johnson, ca. 1991: "He probably will figure it out at some point. Predicting it for some particular time, such as right now, for example, is a fool's errand." Or somesuch.
.
Q. So you've got an odds-against shot at a quality reliever, and he's hurt. does that make this another non-saber move by the guys with the saber reps?
A. Not at all. Like everybody else, I like the approach in which the Mariners bet "the field" and then pack the field with legitimate talent. This is fundamentally a "Stars & Scrubs" variation.
There is a big difference between (1) playing 8-to-make-2 from a bunch of AAA journeymen / MLB (TM) 35-year-olds, and (2) playing 8-to-make-2 from genuinely talented candidates like Aardsma, Lowe, Tyler, etc.
Bringing in huge flotillas of The Usual Suspects, vs. flotillas of Intriguing Talents, is the difference between "Comfort Zone Civics Managers" and "Stars & Scrubs." That's true whether you're talking about it on a bullpen scale or a 25-man-roster scale.
So I don't share the urge to wave pom-poms at the acquisition of a pitcher who has an 80% chance of not helping the club, but am encouraged that maybe this suggests a tendency to value Special Talent over safety and security.
You are giving yourself a real shot at a March buzz around Mark Lowe, or David Aardsma, or Tyler Walker, or somebody. You could wake up on March 15 and start hearing, "Hey, this Lowe guy is just owning spring training. He looks great!"
Because you've got the kind of guys who are CAPABLE of that. Often in the past, the M's haven't had people capable of overperforming.
.
Q. Under what circumstances would this Special Talent orientation work, if that is what it turns out to be?
A. Under those circumstances in which the guy selecting the 25-man roster had the gift for identifying the right players, like Lou Piniella, Earl Weaver, Bobby Cox, etc.
Wakamatsu is very intelligent, I'm sure. Whether he can look at a ballplayer/pitcher and visualize him at his peak, we'll see. Of course, Zduriencik comes with a rep of being able to do this.
............
Scenario B: if there's any way to stash him in AAA and let him tell you when he's ready.
.
Q. Could he jell and start throwing nothing but strikes, like Morrow could?
A. I don't think so. I don't think he's in the mold of somebody who's ever going to have a lot of precision.
.
Q. Your instinct on Aardsma?
A. Mine? Numbers aside?
Q. Yours personally. Just looking at him pitch.
A. I've got a hunch that it's going to be later rather than sooner.
General rule of thumb: if a pitcher's on the verge, probably at some point in his past you have seen decent periods of precision, sort of an electric circuit fritzing on-and-off two, three months here and there. Aardsma doesn't feel like he's had the fritzing-on periods to me.
Doesn't hurt anything to see whether an arm like that happens to fritz on, in March, for no apparent reason. But I'll wait until I see an actual good move, before I wave the pom-poms. ;- )
Clement to C and Morrow to SP. Those deserve a cheerleader pyramid. ::paid for by friends for Capt Jack::
Cheers,
Dr D