Chat: 11/3/15 5:33am
Chat: 11/3/15 5:33am
Shouts
<p>OK, that should suffice ... chill pill and on to the next subject ... :- ) thx Doc</p>
<p>Most players fail in the majors or never reach it, that some of those failures have bad stolen base success rates says nothing about whether they are idiots or not. To insult people when you know nothing about them except some numbers is really low.</p>
<p>Thanks for that, Doc...that makes me feel a bit better about Powell. I don't put much stock in minor league error rate, only because minor league scorers are terrible (and so are the fields)...but it helps to know that his fielding scouting footage, which also alarmed me (because he looked stupidly aggressive on some of the plays I saw him make that even an Andruw Jones type would lay up on because it's a low percentage play to try to catch it), doesn't translate to actual, identifiable miscues. And I am deeply...deeply skeptical of minor league walk rates for guys with no power, but if the reason he has no power is that he's hitting it on the ground a heck of a lot, and not that he's not hitting the ball hard, fine...that may be a mitigating factor.</p>
<p>POTD on Boog Powell at my second site, <a href="https://drdetectovision.wordpress.com" target="_parent">https://drdetectovis...</a>. Still workin' on a keyboard that will fire up the SSI mainframe by tomorrow. All apologies for the inconvenience. :- )</p>
<p>I think Karns is a better player than Miller...</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 11/7/15 5:37pm<br>I totally agree</div><div class="indented">Reply - OBF - 11/9/15 10:38am<br>Me too... Especially if he isn't going to be your SS... </div>
<p>I dunno. This feels like the Fister trade again. We give up the best player for quantity. The Fister trade could have worked out and so can this one. But I don't like trading concentrated WAR for quantity. At least we get lots of cost controlled years back.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 11/7/15 5:38pm<br>With all our musses, I'll take quantity all day</div>
<p>Ah Kotchman and the ludicrously lucky BABIP season...of course that would happen right AFTER he left #Seattle. :)</p>
<p>Re: LoMo and the trade to #Tampa Bay, does anyone else remember from the not too distant past a Mariners LH firstbaseman with a reputation for defensive prowess, one who was brought in to revive a past that had seen some success, one who failed to fulfill hopes in #Seattle, and was subsequently traded to #Tampa Bay? In that case he had tremendous success for one year before falling off the MLB cliff. Rember...Casey Kotchman?</p>
<p>Take it seriously or don't, CPB. I called it a prejudice because I believe in intellectual honesty, and, right now, all I have is my impression over many years of watching guys with bad SB% in the minors fail at the big league level in ways other than just SB% - given that it is not scientifically rigorous and yet I believe it strongly, I honestly referred to it as a prejudice. I am not after your approval.</p>
<p>Seager is a fair counter-point...though he attempted fewer steals (was notably slower). I'm not insulting every guy who is a poor base stealer...I'm insulting the ones who keep running and running and running even though they are terrible at it.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 11/7/15 5:41pm<br>Lol good point, he was awful. Keep the pad you are on and hope they hit you over</div>
<p>CPB...I can list guys who were fast, and yet were always terrible at running the bases. Starting with the recently departed Dustin Ackley. Just go through the #Baseball-reference tables looking for guys with > 100 attempts and < 65% success rates...(Ackley wouldn't qualify here because he doesn't attempt steals, but I wanted a recent Mariner example to put in your head about guys who can't learn to steal because they just don't have the confidence and instinct to read pitchers or because their first steps are bad)...there are dozens and dozens of recent examples.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 11/7/15 5:42pm<br>It certainly is an art. Canseco huge but could do it..sure he was roofed up. But impressive. You can certainly learn to</div>
<p>Matt, please list the players who are LITERALLY incapable of learning how to steal bases.</p>
<p>I have a huge prejudice against people who insult others based on nothing more than their ability to steal bases.</p>
<p>In the minors, Kyle Seager stole bases at a .591% clip (28/48). In the minors, Powell has stolen bases at a .588% clip (53/90). Does that mean that Seager is only .003% less of a #Baseball idiot than Powell? Well crud, better trade him then. :) Just kidding, Matt, but if Powell is a .652 basestealer in the bigs (.003 less than Seager's number) and he's a great glove who can walk.....well then I suppose I will have to overlook his #Baseball idiocy.</p>
<p>I don't want to replicate last year's stupidity...and there are many ballplayers who are literally incapable of learning to run the bases well. Powell has attempted many steals throughout his minors career...working with many different coaches...he's been terrible at every level and continuously getting worse. The SBs aren't as important, to me, as what they suggest about him as a player. I think he's a #Baseball idiot.</p>
<div class="indented">Reply - Browns8625 - 11/7/15 5:44pm<br>I'd rather a player situational lyrics know how to run bases vs stealing</div>
<p>I think you're wrong, Matt. After reading and watching the videos from Moe's thread, I'm thinking he might make it out of ST. I mean, how many baserunning gaffs did the M's make last year including Cano, Seager and a bunch of others. I wouldn't classify them as stupid. Hopefully, one of Dipoto's vacant coaching positions will be somebody with a clue for teaching baserunning skills. As I showed up as anonymous in my previous shout, I wanted to identify myself as jokestar.</p>
<p>I think Powell is going to be a non-MLBer. I have a huge prejudice against players who are too stupid to run the bases, as Powell is.</p>
<p>Thanks for the POTD, Doc. Sounds like just what DiPoto sold it as, two teams trading from their surplus to fill key needs. Heck, a ready-now, controllable, bona fide young starter and some salary relief for a talented shorstop who ain't gonna play shortstop for us, a struggling-to-put-it-and-keep-it-together firstbaseman, and a had-it-but-lost-it relief pitcher, this return might turn out to be worth it alone. Throw in a semi-loaded dice-roll at a near-MLB ready CF/leadoff hitter and a who-knows-what-we-got reliever and the trade looks from the M's perspective like JeDi opened the poker game by taking the initial pot.</p>
<p>Who knows but what the modest salary relief could be used as a little sweetener to land a free agent as well.</p>
<p>Karns is a pretty exciting piece. BTW, GLS, there's no way in Hades that we're trading Cruz...and I don't think #Montgomery or Nuno would have much value.</p>
<p>There is a Karns POTD up at my second site, <a href="https://drdetectovision.wordpress.com" target="_parent">https://drdetectovis...</a> ... the iMac keyboard broke and the laptop had a wee bit o' trouble getting signed in here ... cheers, Dr D / Jeff / jemanji</p>
<p>Woodward has decided not to accept the position on the M's coaching staff. Wants to try to find a job closer to his home in #Florida.</p>
<p>What do we know about Jhoulys Chacin? I saw on MLBTR that the Diamondbacks outrighed him over a projected arbitration number of $1.8 million. But that number doesn't look bad to me at all for a player that recorded a 5.8 WAR season two years ago. Now, he hasn't done that since then, but maybe there's a story. And $1.8 mil is chump change in today's market.</p>
<p>JD has other pieces he can move: Walker, Paxton, #Montgomery, Elias, Nuno, and now Karns. All have value. Nelson Cruz could be moved. Smith and Trumbo both have value. Zunino probably still has value as a secondary piece.</p>
<p>I'm interested in Denard Span as well, but keep in mind that he has a significant platoon split and has recorded negative dWAR value for two straight seasons. On the other hand, if you are like me, you are somewhat skeptical of dWAR. But, I don't think he's an everyday starter. I love his k/bb ratio.</p>
<p>I would assume that James Jones, Shawn O'Malley and Boog Powell wont be the only CF candidates in Spring Training... I am really hoping they pull in Denard Span...</p>
<p>One Key that Greg Johns brought up was that Brad Miller doesn't WANT to play center field, and so Brad is excited for this trade because TB is going to play him at SS... Whether you agree or not The M's (before and after JeDi, btw) have tabbed Marte the SS of the future so this is good PEOPLE MANAGEMENT, JeDi got Brad into a situation he needed/wanted and also gained some benefit from it. BTW, Miller will NEVER be a good CF, if in the back of his mind he always sees himself as a SS...</p>