Diderot on Redundancy in Roster Construction
January roster plans, like Dr D's shtick, often go awry

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Diderot sez,

All winter long the national writers who bought the Baker/Wedge/Blengino hatchet job hook, line and sinker were just looking for Jack's next mistake.
So remember the line on this?--"sure, Hart or Morrison makes sense--but both? Bad roster construction!"

I think Jack, at heart, is a hoarder. As in accumulating masses of talent. Most begrudgingly give him credit for scouting, and not much more. But he knows that talent selection, even for the most astute, is still a crap shoot. The way you win is to make more bets. Eventually, if you are competent, some of them HAVE to work out. And I think he's been consistent on this (unless a Cliff Lee suddenly falls from a tree). Possibly his most ill-fated trade--Fister--was just a way to fill the cupboard with more provisions. And that's also why (Upton excepted) he's held on to his prospects so tightly. Safety in numbers.

So, three cheers for LoMo. And at least one more for Jack.

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Great put on redundancy mate, the 9-dudes-to-fill-5-slots idea.  

The local guys get even more irritated in this situation:  if the Mariners secure a single RBI man more than the bare minimum, they compress their lips and start pounding the heel under the desk.  Grrrrr...

This concept of "hoarding" you bring up is --- > food for thought.  Zduriencik quite obviously values redundancy, particularly when it comes to the bat-first positions.  (Lou Piniella, on the other hand, would pile up switch-hitting middle infielders, sometimes 4 at a time.)

Billy Beane, on his 2012 roster, had all of the following corner players:

  • Chris Carter, 260 PA's
  • Brandon Inge, 311
  • Yoenis Cespedes, FT
  • Josh Reddick, FT
  • Johnny Gomes, 333 PA's
  • Seth Smith, 441 PA's
  • Brandon Moss, age 28, 296 PA's
  • Josh Donaldson, 294 PA's, age 26, look where he is now
  • Kila Ka'aihue, 139 PA's (saber darling, a la Petagine or Branyan)
  • Daric Barton, 136 AB's
  • Eric Sogard, age 26, 100+ AB's

That's not 9-to-make-5; it's 11-to-make-5, and virtually all of those guys were MLB(tm) veterans.

And it isn't like Zduriencik doesn't find ways to stash extra hitters in AAA or on the DL.  This year's Tacoma roster had room for Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison, Endy Chavez, Corey Hart, James Jones and Michael Saunders.  To say nothing of Taylor, Almonte, Romero, Gillespie, Franklin, and Montero.

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I don't know that there is a lot of difference between Jack Zduriencik's ability to draw up a JANUARY plan, and a blogger's ability to do the same.  But!  Where you see a huge difference is in the dynamic adjustments that are made on-the-fly.  This is another reason that Beane's Stars & Scrubs orientation gives him a big edge over the ossified big-money lineups.

These fluid, in-season adjustments are not something you can begin thinking about in April.  Neither was Logan Morrison something that the M's began thinking about in April.  But after his 3-run homer saved the season, NOW we begin thinking about it ... :- )

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The life lesson is simple.  The GM's who are actually in the arena?  They've learned something very simple, very simple, and very important.  Life doesn't follow your script.  You can't draw up a 1-page "offseason plan" and confidently sit back, secure in the knowledge that your acquisition of Endy Chavez is going to net you a freebie 1.7 WAR.

But in order to provide yourself extra draws at the deck, you've got to have a sense of danger as to your first draw at the deck ....

You can make the smartest move in the world, and it's just as liable to fail catastrophically.

BABVA,

Dr D

 

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