Why Does Guti Need 155 Games? Paul Blair Didn't Get Them

 === Dr's R/X ===

1.  Wilson is ahead of Greg Halman in line.  

He's not as gifted, but he is (much) older and is handling the strike zone better.  Kelly's litmus test of hard AB's when behind in the count is telling here.  Wilson is solid against tough pitching, in tough counts.

...

2.  The M's have seen enough of Milton Bradley to answer The Big Question.  ... he's not going to be part of their next pennantwinner.

Make a decision, boys.  MB isn't in your lineup when you win in 2011 or 2012, so move on sooner rather than later.

Politically, it can be tough to broach the subject of writing seven-figure monthly salary checks to a guy you're not using.  But in this case, you can easily blame the $12m writeoff on Bavasi, on my man Mat Olkin and on Mat's 95-win plan of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva.

...

3a.  Ideal would be a consolidation trade to clear roster space -- let's say Saunders + Lopez + Fister for Kevin Slowey-plus or something -- but let's presume that's not possible.

3b.  Painful as it is, the M's have to write off Kotchman, write off Milton Bradley ... and

3c.  Smoak 1b, Branyan dh, Saunders-Wilson LF platooning and taking some DH and CF at-bats.

...

Everybody assumes that the M's can't eat Bradley's salary.  But this is a club that did so with Carlos Silva, owing him twice as much.  And this is a club that just pulled off a mammoth blockbuster trade in! the! division!.  This is a front office with stones.  Execute the same maneuver with Bradley that you did with Silva.

Saunders' production has improved the offense from where it was before he got here.  Giving some of Kotchman's and Bradley's AB's to Mike Wilson would probably do the same.

.

=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Supposing that Mike Wilson is indeed a 250 / 350 / 500 hitter right now, and supposing that Michael Saunders is going to hit 30 homers a year, well ... you have four plus ML outfielders next year.

That's not a bad thing.  Earl used to have four good outfielders.  Sometimes he had five real good ones.  And in 1973, Earl had five guys over 124 OPS+ in the outfield, except Paul Blair who was a 108-OPS center fielder who was better on defense than Franklin Gutierrez.

Here is a season in which Earl rotated three corner OF's who all had 150 OPS's with Paul Blair in center.  Heh!  122-141 games for four guys, including Frank Blinkin' Robinson.

The World Series winner, 1970, he had a backup corner outfielder playing 4-5 days a week behind Buford and Robbie and Blair ... and OPS'ing 156 ...

............

With this OF traffic jam, you might want to start letting four jell, anyway.  But you could do five.  I don't know why Franklin Gutierrez has to play 155 games; Paul Blair didn't.

Get you some batter-pitcher matchups.  Score some runs.

.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

1
TAD's picture

It's a good problem to have.
But you are correct it's time to start making some calls on players who will not be here next year or if they are may flounder as much this year as next year.
If we are truely laying the ground work for future the M's should start calling up some of the AAA players and give them some AB's to see what the have, i.e. Wilson, Moore, Mangini(???), ...  Tui is the one player currently without a position, unless somehow he can make his glove work at third or potentially an outfielder. 
Jose Lopez - yes he has an option for next year, but I doubt the M's will want to pay Lopez the 4.5M for next year if all they can expect is his current performance going forward.
Sweeney - although he has performed okay this year.  With his back and age he will not be anyone to build around
Bradley - with his ongoing health issues and inability to perform throughout the year.  He was worth a shot in an attempt to regain value from Silva but it's not working out. 
Kotchman - he is definitely a man without a positions now.  Here's hoping he can land on his feet somewhere.

2

The M's don't have to waste these next 70 games.
They need to frantically prepare for their revenge...

3
Taro's picture

The real problem is the Branyan trade.
This is why that was such a tactical error. You need space to audition.
DFA Kotchman and trade Branyan away again.
Bradley is a tough choice.. I'd rather relegate him to the bench to see if he can start hitting again as a part-timer. Thats a lot of salary to eat in '11.

4
Taro's picture

Theres no such thing as better defense than Franklin Gutierrez.
Nothing wrong with spotting Saunder in CF against certain RHanders that are bad matchups for Guti though. Its all about maximizing your assets.
For me a Saunders-Wilson platoon probably makes the most sense though.
Is Wilson going to hit enough vs RH to offset Gut's D? Maybe, but its unlikely.

5
IcebreakerX's picture

I don't think Z sees the jam as a problem.
The key is his comment when he got Branyan, that it was that you can't just throw in the towel and that you need to nurture players in a winning environment.
I think Z sees Bradley and Branyan as 1B/DH/COF job shares for the youth that are coming up. Naturally, Bradley has to hit, but his HRs have been pretty big too. But the idea is that you use the vets and rooks together to strengthen everyone involved.
IMO, Mike Wilson is probably a non-factor for Z, though Wilson probably is gonna force Z's hand. Probably more a swap with Langerhans then dumping MB.

6

'cause James calculated Blair, in the early 70's, to be the best CF who ever played.  Consistently -20 runs per season, not subject to fluctuation.
................
I see Gutierrez as a verrrrrrrry fine CF who might or might not be one of the 30, 40 best center fielders ever.
Granted, nobody is going to exceed his 2009-10 numbers.  But every CF who ever got significant time in Safeco had numbers much better than his real ability.  Randy Winn was a plus fulltime CF here.
Put Gutierrez in Baltimore and is he going to be saving 20 runs a year there?
..................
But at any rate, Guti and Blair are pretty neat comps, both being league-leading defenders and 110-OPS types.

7

Branyan's one of them, right?
.................
Granted, if and when you have a handful of Saunderses and Wilsons lighting up the Safeco scoreboard, then Branyan gets elbow'ed out.
Best we have right now, though, is Saunders' 94 OPS+...

8
Taro's picture

Then you have Branyan blocking the youngins again in '11.
Already hes going to eat up Saunders PT and theres no space whatsoever for Wilson or Tui or Halman or Mangini or whoever else pushes for a promotion.
Its just a bad move IMO. Clear that roster spot up. Trade him.

9
Taro's picture

Ya, but players are better now. Moreso on offense, but also on defense.
Blair might be the defender of his generation, but I just don't see him holding a candle to Gut in this era.
I agree with your overall point that maybe you can spot Gut against certain RHPs. Right now though the Ms don't have an OF in the majors or minos that makes sense in the role (LF vs RHP when Saunders plays CF). You're better off with Gut's D in CF.

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