Who is the Booger?

Herschel Mack (Boog) Powell doesn't hit for power; let's be clear about that.  He hit 3 homers in 444 AA/AAA AB's last year.  Heck, in '14 he had 61 California League AB's and hit zero homers.  Most guys have 9 or 10 in 61 Cali/desert/launching pad AB's (OK, I jest a bit).  But he's not a maroon with the bat, by any means.  In the '14 AFL he had two homers and a line of .300-.402-.429 against the hot-shot prospects.  Over his 1361 professional PA's, to this point, he's walked in just about 13% of them.  I remind you that that is pretty good.  He has 175 BB's and just 185 K's.  I'll remind you that that is a pretty good rate.  That's the stuff DiPoto has been talking about.  I know, I know, he's had only 8 taters in his 1152 for-pay AB's, too.  I'll admit, he really doesn't fit the baseball-pedigreed nickname of Boog.  Chase down some scouting reports on him and you get Sam Fuld on the very low side and Brett Gardner-lite on the high side.  I won't comment on the Fuldiness of our Boog, as I'm trusting there isn't much, but I will point out that Gardner only hit a total of 9 homers in his 1475 MiLB AB's.  He's whacked 33 over the last two seasons in the Big Apple.  Gardner walked in about 13.5% of his 1764 MiLB PA's, and had a 240-293 BB/K rate.   The Booger is in that ballpark.  Gardner didn't lose his eye in the bigs, even without much power.  During  '09-'10, when he was up for good, Gardner (hitting only 8 homers in 725 AB's) walked in 105 of his 853 PA's, a 12.3% rate, quite near his MiLB numbers.  Hey, a good eye is a good eye.  

Powell has a short stroke to the ball, that fouls good pitches off.  He can also turn a bit on the inside pitch as you see here:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSxBDGie888

But all of that aside, what he does really well, maybe astoundingly well, is go get the ball.  The guy can glove it. With the best of them. No really, that's Booger and not Paul Blair.  I promise.  Enjoy:

(He's fearless):  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5LUp8dgbub0

(Has incredible range)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTC_h3W-43o

(Did I say that he's fearless and has great range?)  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4UBPLzoQ2M

What's not to like guys?  If he's Gardner-lite, then he's a superb grab.  

You go kid!  I like you more all the time.

Go team.

Moe

Comments

2

Without seeing him, it's impossible to tell. The great base stealers I've seen seem to tend to have two traits - an almost innate ability to read the pitcher and the ability to get to peak-speed within a few steps. Maybe he doesn't have that quick twitch explosiveness. Or maybe he just gets bad reads on the pitcher. Or both. I do know that if he were in the M's minor leagues anytime in the past 15 years, his coaching would have amounted to something like "you are small and fast, therefore you are a basestealer and we are going to send you often". Call it the Hargrove coaching philosophy.

My assumption at this point is that Servais will be getting and using analysis early and often that should prevent that kind of coaching. "We've got good hitters coming up behind you. Don't be greedy - your job is to A) get on base and B) score runs. You do not have the green light to steal on your own. Think first to third. Don't make outs."

4

I'm not saying "Oh no...he's going to attempt 40 steals and cost us 5 runs for doing so!"

I'm saying "players who are terrible at stealing bases, and yet keep trying to steal bases, tend to play baseball like morons and make lots of other stupid mistakes continuously...they may be talented defensively, but it doesn't translate into defensive value...they may be good at making contact, but that doesn't mean they think with the pitchers and make adjustments...they may be fast on the bases, but that doesn't mean they don't waste outs running on contact and such"

And worse...that sort of player, I've noticed, tends to resist coaching.

That is my concern for Powell.

5

Got it, Matt. Thanks.  And indeed, if you look at the AAA leaders in Caught Stealing in any one year you won't find a whole bunch of guys who go on to MLB heroics.  

Guys like Seager, of course, do just fine despite a lack of MiLB big base stealing %'s.

Are we sneaking a peek at some Yankee's TM'ed SABR-analysis here?

BTW, isn't it the standard baseball notion that guys who walk a 100 pts have nice baeball IQ's?  Does that apply to Powell?

In the minors he walks, hits .300 and chases down flies.  There is value there.

DiPoto apparently likes him quite a bit.

6

This is my own observational theory, based on watching a lot of fast guys with terrible SB% and high attempts come up and fail inexplicably over failure to adjust and take scouting notes.

Not every player is this way...there will be exceptions to every rule...I'd love it for Powell to be one...I'm just saying, he's not my kinda player.

7

that I had never thought about it before.  I like thinking about stuff like that.

Can we call this one the Matty Theorem?  What is the corollary that accounts for a guy like James Jones who steals bases all over the lot but is a pretty lousy player?

How much of minor league base stealing is controlled by the coaches?  Anybody know?

Clearly Powell is agressive in the OF, he may just be (too) agressive at trying to swipe 2B, as well.

A neat theorem.  it needs a bit of salt, but I think you may be onto something worth pondering..

But I knda think Booger can play a bit.

We will see.  Clearly DiPoto didn't give up LoMo to put this guy in AAA for a full year.  He'll be up, barring a ST catastrophe, quite likely on Opening Day.

8

His SB success is not based on blinding speed...he's fast, but not Lorenzo Cain fast.  Jones is very naturally gifted at reading the pitcher, has good first-step skill, and knows how to be aggressive without being jumpy...that is true at the plate too, but he is so lacking in talent for squaring up the ball that pitchers can toy with him or throw him hard stuff for strikes and he'll still make outs.  That sort of player is pretty common too. :)

10

From where I have looked at numbers the past couple years. it certainly looks like Boog and Flores are the same player... except Flores is a year closer to the MLB level.

What am I missing that no one is even mentioning Flores???

12

I've commented on him several times, as well.  But I agree the universe at large is not paying attention.

At the very least, I'd expect at least a passing report on his recovery from surgery.  

Although he can't play center, I don't think it's impossible to see both he and Powell in our outfield at the same time sometime next year.

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