I love Guti, but I sure could live with Saunders in CF.  Might be the smarter play long term, too.

SSI staunchly maintains that most of what you are seeing, with these UZR's from Jeremy Reed and Randy Winn and Franklin Gutierrez, is the floating-beach-ball effect in Safeco.
Any way to compare opposing CF's UZR playing in Safeco to other parks to see or measure such an effect?  Og Guti's UZR at home to away?

Saunders is unproven both with the bat and glove, and could very well end up being a bust. Gut is a proven 4 WAR player and already locked up to a bargain contract.
I give you two Saunders before I trade Guti.
Even in '10, Guti was a 3 WAR player based on any other defensive metric either than UZR.

Winn's overall defensive numbers were WAY better with the Giants than the Ms, so he isn't really a good example of the Safeco factor.
In fact if you go by plus/minus and RZR Winn's 2006 with the Giants as a CF was better than any season he had with the Ms.

Even if Saunders can't cut it in center (which I think he could), perhaps you ask Ichiro if he minds holding down CF for another year or two.
Options, options.
 

So it appears that the asking price for a 22 year old "potential" superstar is a starting OF and a bullpen arm and a prospect pitcher.
Are we just peeing on ourselves thinking that NOBODY else can offer more than the M's?
And then....
Upton is going to get $51M over the next 5 years.  '14 and '15 cost his team $14M and change each!  (of course, by then the M's aren't paying for Bradley...or Ichiro, perhaps)
Reynolds would cost $12.5M over the next two...and only $500K in '13 if you don't want to pay $11M for him.
It is entirely likely that Reynolds could be a more productive player (or as productive) as Upton next season.
I don't have to give up a potential #2 starter for Reynolds.
But Upton is around for the next 8 years or so....assuming you reup with him.
But you already have Ackley AND Smoak AND Franklin AND Saunders, etc. 
I don't think Z makes the Upton move, assuming we make the offer that Arizona would gobble up.  You have to pay for Upton and THEN pay for the starter that you have to find somewhere.
Great Rosterbation stuff, though.  Will be anxious to see how it turns out.
Guti (or Saunders), League, Another arm and another prospect or to...that aren't Pineda or Franklin...and I think I'll sign on.
Giving up Pineda....I don't know.
moe
 

Guti was +7.2/150 (games) at home, +5.6/150 on the road this year.  Scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the home/away defensive splits

That Jack has just wedged himself into the discussions to a) Drive up the price for Upton so that he could b) Be the 3rd part of a threeway trade?  Maybe the Marlins send Logan Morrison and someone else, the Mariners send Pineda & League and someone else, Marlins get Upton, and the Mariners get Ricky Nolasco and Stephen Drew(In this situation the D'Backs would take Pineda over Nolasco due to team control and salary). 
Getting away from rosterbating, there are of course going to be a lot of possible combinations appearing here, even if the only other teams in the discussions are the Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox, and Marlins.  There's going to be a lot of high level talent shuffling around if this goes down, and it could be that Jack is just trying to be at the table to catch some runnoff.

Whether Pineda goes or not, we will have another starter with nasty stuff in the org next summer.  His name will either be Gerrit Cole (UCLA), who throws 96-98, or Matt Purke (TCU) who throws mid-90s from the left side with deception.  Both are polished kids who took their teams to the College World Series, and would comp to Bumgarner of the Giants, who excelled in the real World Series at the same age.  Purke is a goofball, but not in an unsavory character kind of way.  Cole looks like a young Seaver/Clemens type to me.
Both were already first-round picks.  Cole turned down the Yankees out of HS and Purke the Rangers.  These are quality arms who are not "reaches."
 
Or, if we don't have one of them, it will be because we have Anthony Rendon (Rice), who is either Ryan Zimmerman with a better eye or Dustin Ackley with lightpole power -- take yer pick -- but barring a failure to recover from his injury, the Pirates are almost certainly going to grab him.

In 2009, Gutierrez was worth +19.6 R/150 total...I'm gonna bet you a pretty penny that there was very little split there.  Does anyone REMEMBER the play he made in Detroit? :)

I was coming from the perspective that Guti would be the price of keeping Pineda (eg give Az Gutz + Leuke + Cortez+ etc rather than Pineda+ Saunders + etc).  Is the general feeling that Pineda is a forgone conclusion as part of any deal?

...if you can watch Gutierrez play defense for two long seasons and still not be certain that he gets you any runs with the glove...then that's a FAIL. Gutierrez is clearly...VISUALLY OBVIOUSLY...a fantastic defensive center fielder.

To be honest I thought Cameron was better, but Winn scored great numbers (not just UZR) across the board in his prime at Sea and SF. I think you just have to figure that he was really good.

Theres no statistical or visual evidence to suggest that Gut is anything either than a fantastic defender.
Heck, his defensive numbers in Cleveland were even better.

I've always believed Saunders profiles better as a CF.  If he hits like Grady Sizemore then yes, he can hang out in LF for us, but if he's Aaron Rowand, he can't stay in LF. We cannot run 3 CF-level bats out there in the outfield.  We haven't been able to do that since the days of Boone, a 2B who can club 30+ HR, but we keep trying.
 
  
Our corner power is a slap-hitting RF, a slap-hitting 3B, and a pair of 2nd year players at 1B and LF.  I think the 1B could wind up hitting 30 HRs and 30 2B (though probably not this year), but what if he doesn't?
 
  
Saunders has value, but it's raised significantly in CF.  .250/.310/.430 is acceptable there while it is NOT from LF.  .280/.340/.425 made Gutierrez a star last year at the position when combined with his glove, and I'm with Doc - Saunders can be a plus defender in Safeco.  Not Guti, but by no means embarrassing.
 
  
I've been a bigger believer in Saunders than most, but from the beginning I've stated the only way I see him making a major contribution to the club is in CF where he doesn't have to hit his 90th percentile projection to help in a major way.  I like Franklin, but let's not get carried away on how superior an option he is.  He posted the 2nd worst OPS of any qualified CF option in 2010. His career year of 2010 was 13th of 20.  I know that's not park-adjusted and I know that's not defense, but Guti is not the greatest thing I've ever seen in CF, and I would move him for a LF who ALREADY hits like Grady Sizemore and could be even better.
 
  
I don't think we can require that of Saunders.
 
  
I would trade either of them for another legit power threat, under contract for 5 years and by the end of it would still be in the prime of his career.  Saunders can hit like Guti, that I believe, and he might hit better - but asking him to fill a MOTO role might be a bit much for him.  It's not too much for Upton, and I'd like a legit RH bat so that we're not totally neutered by LHP.  Maybe it would turn out like Beltre who was destroyed by the park.  Trading for Beltre after his Age 21 season would have earned you a world of disappointment.
 
 
But I don't think it will, and after watching everyone from Anderson and Meche to Nageotte and Blackley to Butler and Morrow fail to make the impact we've desired, I think the long odds of Pineda panning out like Felix make it worth looking into whether he can get us more-stable-yet-still-impact production.
 
 
~G

...It's a question of how many runs does he save you with a glove over your other options?
If you're playing in Cincinnati or Colorado or Arlington where any idiot can hit the ball out of the stadium with a half-decent check swing, how valuable is a big bat to you?  Yes, it's valuable, but if you can get a pitcher who can dominate for you and still easily replace your 30 HR / 30 2B top prospect with not one but TWO players from your minors with similar skillsets in THAT park, why not do it?
That was the thought of the Rangers, who had Chris Davis, Smoak AND Moreland who could all hit well in that park from 1B.  So they traded the most valuable one to other teams for the ace they needed and made the WS.
Is Smoak still likely the best of those 3 players?  Yes.  Is the delta between he and the other two especially significant given the park they play half their games in?  Not compared to Cliff Lee it isn't.
If Safeco DOES keep flyballs in the air for a really long time and make all its outfielders look like heroes of Greek myth, then how valuable is a truly special OF defender?  If Griffey can leave and Cameron is better in CF, then Winn comes in and excels, then Gutierrez makes all of them look like chumps...are we really that good at getting outfield defense or is it more likely that the home park helps everyone?
If it helps, then the difference between a special defender and a merely good one goes down, because there's only so special you can be on defense.  At some point all the territory is covered and you're overlapping with other defenders and that extra range is going to waste.
Franklin is a terrific defender.  But if the park makes good defenders into great ones anyway, how much value do I put on "terrific" versus "great?"
For me, the value of that delta between Gutierrez and Saunders does go down.
~G

Yes.  Pineda goes.  He's the only legit blue-chipper we're willing to part with (unless Franklin is on the block after we add a SS somehow).
Gutierrez costs millions, Pineda not even half of one.  And a potential TOR pitcher is more valuable.  Most teams won't give one up except in a blockbuster.
If Kevin Towers wants to absolutely feel like he "won" the trade in order to make it, since he's under no immediate pressure to part ways with his best hitter, then in order to win you need a Pineda to get the deal done.  5 years of Upton has significant worth.
If we add him, Pineda is out of here.
If we want to add a guy like Alex Gordon for a lower price tag, since he has yet to do anything in the bigs except get injured and moved off his 3B glove position to LF, that's always an option, but for an Upton or a Rasmus we're buying Pineda a first-class ticket out of town.
~G

Over an average fielder, Gut saves around 15 more runs. That is very significant. Hes locked up cheap and more proven. His true offensive line is probably in between '09 and '10.
I keep hearing that Safeco improves OF defensive, but I haven't seen any confincing evidence. Safeco does allow more "chances" , but that just emphasizes the importance of having great D in the OF. It doesn't create better defenders.
The Vargas and Fisters now run 4-ish ERA in Safeco, those used to be 5-ish ERAs.
Gut is a relatively safe 4 WAR ish player and locked up long-term at a dirt cheap contract.
Saunders isn't even close to being worth that yet. I think the bust% there is way too high for him to be even remotely close to Gut in overall value. Unless your trade partner is valuing him properly, there is absolutely no reason to deal Gut IMO. Hes a much more valuable commodity than his reputation around the league.

Wow, Doc. I'd take on that bet every time.
Who has ever put up Gut like defensive numbers in Safeco? Nobody did. Ichiro and Winn couldn't even come close. Cameron wasn't even half as good.
Gut blows everyone out of the water. His instints and routes are tremendous.

The logic is mixed up here.
It makes great OFs MORE valuable, because there are extra chances for them to utilize their skills.
Just as lefties are more valuable in Safeco than righties, you want to exploit park advantages.
The very second the Ms stopped prioritizing OF D is the second their team ERAs went to the crapper during the late Bavasi-era.

I just love that one, Doc...that cracked me up. :)
"My visual evidence is that he's average!!" That's fantastic! :)
Gotta respect a guy who'll stand by his opinion even if a hundred other people are holding the opposite opinion. Look, Doc...Safeco might help a fielder by a run or two per 150 games...but there's no way...NO WAY!!...that Gutierrez is getting 10 runs of help a year out there...
I like Saunders...but he's not Guti good...he's not even Cameron good.

In Safeco, Lefties are the best production so we stock up on them.  Righties die.
 
  
But there is no upper limit on hitting the way there is on fielding.  If you have 3 guys hit 40 HR each they aren't stealing HRs from each other.
 
  
Once the defensive-chance spheres overlap to a significant degree you're just wasting space out there.  Cameron used to run all the way to where the LF was standing, basically, to make plays.  The fact that he was given the CHANCE to do that doesn't mean that the play would not have been made without his presence on the roster.  The LF would have had to do more, but it was within his ability to do.
  
If Ichiro is in RF and Upton is in LF, and neither guy is exactly an immovable tree-stump with an oil can for a glove, just how important is CF defense?  If the CF is always calling off the other fielders who could have made plays just as easily on the ball, then the glove-whiz CF is not necessary for those plays.  A lesser CFer could have done just fine.  So the question is how much overlap is there out there on Defense, and how much is necessary to maintain pitcher ERA?
 
  
I agree that OF defense is important, but again, I'm not trying to replace Saunders with Justin Smoak when I move Mike to CF.  Nor am I trying to replace Gutierrez with Raul Ibanez in center.
 
 
Fielding is not hitting.  The point of diminishing returns in the fielding game is real.  It's not a 1-to-1 add like offensive production.  3 Franklin Gutierrezes out there wouldn't be able to fully put their skills to use.  It wouldn't be necessary for the vast majority of the plays.  On most plays, any competent defender can get there.  And the overlap in their field coverage would make the defense a secure blanket, but not outrageously more than Upton + Saunders + Ichiro, who would all be plus defenders at their positions.
 
 
At least, I don't think it would be outrageously more, and not enough to compensate for the loss of offense.
 
This is my problem with defensive analysis:  You can't just take 20 runs off for offense, add them back in on defense, and call it good.  There are upper limits of maximum effectiveness with gloves.  There are hits that Guti gets to that no other defender would, but the vast majority of his work can be done by any competent glove. If Saunders is a butcher in CF, this is a problem.  If Saunders is Winn, then it's far less of one.
 

And the extra 30 OPS+ points from Upton would help salve my wounds on the relatively few balls that Guti would have caught that Saunders could not get to.
 
~G

Doc, you'd be ignoring his awesome numbers in Cleveland as a RF and CF.
Also you'd be ignoring that EVERY other metric either than UZR had Guti as a +15 run CF in '10 again. By any other metric he was a 3+ WAR player again despite the poor offensive season. His defense is that elite.

This is another factor that I think gets overstated.
The amount of defensive overlap over a season is so small to be almost irrelevant.
I can't remember which study it was, but the effect is near zero.
Great defenders will benefit a team strongly even with if theres another great defender next to him.

In other words, those kind of overlaps happen may a couple times a season. It kind of like worrying about back-to-back HRs.
You could say that the first HR might as well have been a BB. Thats even a more common occurance.
Of course neither scenario matters at all in the big picture. You want multiple HR hitters AND multiple great defenders.

I think its a small difference that seperates great fielder from poor ones. The good ones are that much better at reading a ball, getting a jump, and going straight to the ball. I'm sure positioning is a big part of it as well.
Many CFs have to look at ball throughout its flight. Guti works so hard at developing his instincts that he can take his eyes off the ball, run to a spot, and start tracking it again.

Just to weigh in with some of my own data...in all of my analyses of great defensive teams, I've never found evidence of a new player being added to an already great defensive team and his stats changing dramatically over the course of multiple sesons.  The 1970s Orioles had 5 HALL OF FAME fielders AT THE SAME TIME! and all of them were still able to munch out year after year after blinkin' year of PCA GG awards and multi-win surplus seasons.
Paul Blair, Brooks Robinson, Mark Belanger, Bobby Grich, off and on in RF aqnd C...all of those positions were producing PCA gold glove seasons...Blair ripped off 6 consecutive seasons with > 5 defnesive wins (which in UZR terms would be about +20 runs above average!), Mark Belanger ran multiple seasons with 5+ defensive wins at short...a couple of +7 win seasons (that's 15 to 30 defensive runs above average!), Bobby Grich had two seasons in there with seven wins at second...another +30 runs!  Brooks Robinson was as consistent as it gets ripping off 3 and 4 win seasons at third (+5-+15 runs)...Don Buford had a year in there with 4 wins in left field.  It goes on and on.
There's no evidence whatsoever that defensive spheres overlap that much on the NON-ROUTINE plays.  See, here's the thing...you might see a few dozen plays a year where multiple fielders could get to the ball, but most of them would be caught by even the worst defenders.  The thing that differentiates Adam Jones (average at best) from Franklin Gutierrez (elite) on defense is whether they get the extra 40-50 plays a year that are not routine but within the realm of possibility to get.  On those plays...there is never overlap.  *NEVER* overlap.
The only way that the team construct can impact defense has to do with positioning and cooperation on plays involving more than one fielder.  The 2B and SS, for example may develop synergy (or not) with DP turns and balls up the middle based on pre-play positioning and multi-faceted play skills.  I have, for example, seen examples of horrible-looking SSs getting paired with a competent fielder and suddenly being average o defense.  A good example would be Derek Jeter.  When paired with, for example, Alfonso Soriano, Jeter was HORRID.  When paired with Robinson Cano...he's suddenly average even though he's older and slower.  Why?  Because Jeter sucks at going up the middle, but Cano is really good at that.
That's the only kind of teamwork we have here...there's no such thing as a defensive-zone-overlap problem.

I disagree and I don't understand why theres a debate here.
The air creates a situation where balls that aren't catchable in other parks become reachable.
To exploit such a situation you need a great fielder. If you have poor fielders in the OF, you aren't taking advantage of your park and are starting off with a huge disadvantage.
We've already seen what happens when you sacrifice D in the OF in Safeco. It doesn't work.

True nothing has worked. I guess I just don't understand the argument that OF D in Safeco is worth less than a normal park. The importance of OF D in Safeco is one of those givens, like lefty hitters in Safeco.

In terms of pure speed, Guti is nothing special. I believe he is near the top of the league, but no one will be talking about Guti's blazing speed 20 years from now.
Guti does get a very quick first step and that gives him a stride or two on everyone else. An exceptional first step with above average speed allows him to get to more balls than someone with more speed. In a 40 yard dash, I'm sure Saunders and Gutierrez are close in times. Reading the ball of the bat and running it down, I'm going with Gutierrez every time.