The Breaking Pitches
Any one of which would make him a star.

There's such a thing as "feeling it," and thanks to the high technology of F/X we can put a lot better numbers on it than we used to.  

Now, pitch movement isn't everything, no definitely not Rain Man, although SSI sometimes makes it sound like it is.  The F/X horizontal and vertical movement numbers don't convey sharpness of break.  They don't convey RPM, don't convey arm action, don't convey a bunch of stuff.  Still and all:  when a pokey in the cheap seats tries to tell you that Felix was snapping off his pitches, it don't hurt none to have facts like this:

 .....................................

The red stars are the pitch movements from Felix' last start, the one against the Angels, who wear red on their uniforms.  We remarked at the time that Felix' arm was a little frazzed during that game, and his velocity fell off some at the end.  

Still and all, you compare the red stars to the circles that they're supPOSed to be in, and you can see that Fatigued Felix still had a slider and curve much better than the norm.  Also, the fastball was cutting in hard to lefties.  The Angels did a blinkin' great job to get five runs in that game no, Mike Trout did a blinkin' great job getting five runs in that game.  I don't know what Mike Trout will be, but at age 20 I know what he is:  the best player in baseball, and maybe the best I've ever seen.

So in the red, you have Felix Hernandez throwing his usual unhittable slider, a huge yakker of Aaron Sele magnitude, a cut fastball like Brian Wilson's or almost Mariano Rivera's, and a "changeup" that was 89 MPH.  (Felix' changeup did indeed have very weak movement, for him, in that game.)

.....................

If you need commentary in order to enhance your chill at the sight of those blue stars, what can we tell you.  ... well, we can tell yer somethin', we s'pose...

SLIDER - a power "slider" that drops straight down, 12-to-6, by 14 inches relative to a fastball, just as the hitter swings?  14 inches is the width of what, five baseballs or five bats?  Without the slightest hyperbole, there are pitchers who have gotten rich with nothing else at all.  Sparky Lyle.  Gaylord Perry.  Bobby Murcer once said about this situation, "I'd rather hit a 500-mile-an-hour fastball than hit that.  At least then I'd have a chance."

CURVE - Felix' yakker was, again with zero hyperbole, equal to the power curves of Dwight Gooden and Bert Blyleven.  We dare you oldtimers to say something different.  Thought not.  :- )

What's weird, though:  Felix threw the yakkers and sliders for called strikes, and he threw them to drop out of the zone.  He threw them inside and outside.  Doc Gooden didn't do that.  He threw 95, and then he came at you with a curve that was pretty much just thrown for a strike.

CHANGE - As you can see from the chart above, here's a day on which Felix' changeup is breaking armside and breaking down even compared to vacuum.  This is the Valenzuela / Hubbell screwball, from the right side.  You tell me it isn't.  Except Felix' is 90-91 MPH.  The one that ended the game was 92 MPH.  Does anybody know of a comparable pitch in baseball history?

Just one more sweet brush-stroke on the canvas, that Felix ended the game on a changeup.  His change has been the crown jewel of his pitching riches for four years now.  It deserved the honor and got the honor.  That changeup will be shown how many times over the next 100 years?  Of course, by that time they'll have no idea whatsoever that it was called a "changeup."  Probably it shouldn't be called a changeup.

.........

The above situation is why, for the last 3-4 years, Dr. D has always complained that Felix has been underperforming.  With his changeup, plus his curve, plus his slider, it's hard to understand how Felix could be anything less than the best pitcher who ever lived.  We've puzzled about this for years.  He's been one of the six best starters, every year.  It's always seemed, no joke, like he should be THE best starter, of a given century.

The last thirteen games have seemed like a vindication of this attitude.  Do you think that the next 130 games will be, also?

.

Comments

1

Jaso indicated that he knew the Rays game plan against Felix - swing at a FB early in the count and not let him bury you with breaking stuff later in the AB. Which is funny, 'cause we've all known for years that this is the game plan for EVERY team that faces Felix. Weird that it might have taken a guy coming from another club to get him out of his old habits.

2
M's Watcher's picture

Doc,
How 'bout a POTD for Trout? If he's as you suggest, the best player in the game, etc., how was he not drafted higher like A-Roid or Jr? Imagine if the Yankees had not signed Teixiera. They would have been able to draft Trout, and which would you rather have right now? Yeah, me too. And Trout vs Ackley? Even easier answer.

4

It didn't occur that maybe Jaso has been in Felix' ear about the Rays' attitude.  And if so, well, Jaso has caught Felix the last six games, 6 of 7 anyway, so apparently Jaso has already won that battle?
Quite a year Jaso is having for us, id'n it? 

5

Perfect game, perfect link.  :- )  We all do what we can, babe.

6

As far as hitters go - and he's part-time.
Fangraphs Hitter WAR:
Seager: 2.5
Jaso: 2.2
Ryan: 1.9
Ackley: 1.4
Saunders: 1.3
...and nobody else matters. That's the offense. Our .250 hitting 3B, backup catcher and Mendoza-line SS are driving this offense, and we're 9 games under .500. Imagine what we might be with a 1B or corner OF contribution? Can't be hubbing the offense around the backup catcher next year, so c'mon Montero.
BTW, Pitching WAR:
Felix: 5.0 (man, he's good)
Millwood: 2.4 (and he's the guy we're talking about ditching next year)
Wilhelmsen: 1.3 (and it should be weighted more because of leverage)
Vargas: 1.0
Furbush: 0.8 (in barely any innings - Furbush brings the value)
We're plenty stocked as far as decent talent goes, but we need to find some WAR-mongers. With an impending 40-man crunch, I would think a trade is in order. Our bullpen looks stocked, our roster has young producers at glove positions...just need some lumber and a deeper rotation, and you would think the in-house rotation options for next year would be perfectly capable of impact, especially if we keep Iwakuma or Vargas (or both, even) and keep the Noesi-types away.
Jaso's been amazing, and he's got 3 more club-controlled years. Might wanna think about buying those out soon if he's gonna keep being this sort of contributor. We can't afford to pay him market rate for years like this... *laughs*
~G

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