Super Bowl -- 49'ers by 21?
John Dewan Prediction System

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Colin Kaepernick has already locked down the MTP award.  ... has there ever been a good player in the NFL, NBA, or MLB with as many tats?

In my generation, we still tend to see this kind of ink as making a statement of rebellion, to some extent.  I'm an open-minded guy, but tattoos don't mean nothing.  Try and become CEO of Boeing with this much ink, or with a Brian Wilson beard.  Never happen.  It's America, there's no law and there shouldn't be.  But there are plusses and minuses to a presentation like this.

In your generation -- you 20-somethings -- what does this say to you, if anything?  I'm simply curious.  I'm color-blind as to what Kaepernick is saying, to people his own age.  I'd like to know.

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John Dewan, at BJOL, has a Super Bowl Prediction System that is 16-6 over the past 22 years.  (For those who just joined us, Dewan is one of baseball's ten most notable sabermetricians, especially noted for his cutting-edge work on fielding metrics.)

 Here are the 12 simple indicators that he uses to predict the winner:

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Category Win% Team with Advantage
Points Scored .543 Ravens
Points Allowed .630 49ers
Point Differential .630 49ers
Fewer Net Passing Yards .609 49ers
Rushing Yards .543 49ers
Rushing Yards/Carry .565 49ers
Opponent Net Passing Yards .565 49ers
Opponent Rushing Yards .609 49ers
Opponent Rushing Yards/Carry .587 49ers
Opponent Total Yards/Game .652 49ers
Turnover Differential .587 Tie
Regular Season Record .543 49ers
 

In Super Bowl history, ten times it's been true that one team had the edge in 10+ of the 12 categories; those teams have played .900.  Last time, the Steelers vs Cardinals, 2008.

The only exception was the 1970 Vikings, but ... how do you compare NFL and AFL stats?  Maybe there's never been a time when such a complete team, like the 49'ers, blew it in the Super Bowl.  I don't bet, but I'd sure be taking that -3.5 line.

I completely agree that the 49'ers should be much more heavily favored than they are.  I'm thinking 10, 12, points :- )  ... wanna try for -14.5, maybe?

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Dr. D has always had the sense that the superior team wins the Super Bowl more often than in other games -- and that much superior teams win blowouts more often. 

If so, it could be because it's a game in which both teams load for bear, and play close to their maximum abilities, so that "noise" decreases as a factor. 

Suspect that the Super Bowl is one of the "purest" contests in sports, in terms of finding out who's the best team. Just an impression. 

But if that's accurate, it would explain why this prediction system is more accurate than experts would expect that it would be. You're really just asking who's the better team, and then leaning more heavily than usual on that identification. 

Or not :- ) 

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That was IDIOTIC, if the Falcons hit those two last passes because the safeties were protecting the long ball.  Matt Ryan would never have been able to come off the script he set in those huddles.  Why weren't they jumping in front, denying the 15-yarders?

Two passes Ryan had to hit, or we'd a been in the NFC championship playing for the right to detonate the Baltimore Ravens.

Bah humbug,

Dr D

Comments

1
Steen's picture

Using them as some tell toward character is pointless, my brain doesn't see them. What I do see is quality of ink and placement. The venn diagram of neck tattoo and lead consumption has a rather large overlap, I imagine.

3

But I'm late 30's and never got tats myself. I remember Bobby Madritsch and Brandon League having tats coming out their unis, but can't find a full showing of their work online anywhere.
Being late 30's, I missed the early 80's Hawks and kept saying I'd watch football when Seattle got an NFL team. I'm still more of a homer and don't keep up with the league too much. I listen to a bit of talk radio and will discuss things with friends and family that know more, but the NFL's still new to me. We haven't had an NFL team all that long. ;p

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