=== Lesson Learned #1 ===
At first, seeing the unimpressive 110-115 career ERA+'s of this group, I was a little afraid that maybe Spit-Polish Lefties didn't throw 140 ERA's, except when Perfect Storms occurred in their careers here and there.
That is not the case. Got-the-Whole-Package 90mph Lefties aren't limited to the #2 slot in the rotation. Most of these guys were well capable of pitching Opening Day -- when healthy.
So, that's good.
We conclude that Cliff Lee will be able to contend for Cy Youngs as long as his arm is fresh. He's a number one starter.
.
=== Lesson Learned #2 ===
Picture-Perfect Lefties, with 91 mph fastballs, look as smooth as light-rail trains.
It looks like they can throw forever. They cannot!
If there was one particular kind of pitcher you'd want to watch the overuse on, it would be this kind of pitcher. They have to hump up to throw 92, and although they look like they're throwing effortlessly, they are not.
Even worse, they are so smooth that even as their arms are shredding, they're still looking great.
It happened to practically every pitcher on this list. They went out and stylishly tossed their teams to victories, and their manager just kept using them and using them, and BOOOOOM! they hit the wall and were never the same again.
...........
Hey, I'm not a guy who is quick to charge overuse.
I think most of the outcry on the internet these days is way overblown. I think 250 innings is fine for Roger Clemens and I think 250 innings is fine for Felix Hernandez.
But I don't think you want to take a smooth 90-MPH, All-Star lefthander and ride him like Roger Clemens. I think that's a guy you want to be careful with. His smoothness is deceptive. He won't show you the labored delivery in the 8th inning, even though his muscles are screaming at him.
.
=== Microscope on Lee's "Overuse" ===
Cliff Lee threw 223 innings in the 2009 season, and another 40 in the playoffs, and also he threw spring training. That's exactly the kind of season that ruined Smiley, and Higuera, and Candelaria.
But the good news is this:
Don't take those positives as a guarantee of health. John Smiley was wrecked by a single hard season at age 27. But there are certainly reasons to hope that Lee might have gotten away with one in 2009.
......
If Lee is a Mariner next year, I've got him on a strict pitch count of 100, the first four months of the season. He's not getting to 200 IP before the playoffs. Skip a turn once in a while, or pull him after five in a blowout.
For SURE, if teams are going to start using Lee as though he were Roger Clemens, they are going to be playing with fire. He's not as durable as he looks.
........
A little caution could go a long way. Because if the Mariners caught Lee before he got hurt, he could be a great pitcher for years.
Let's hope,
Jeff
with a comp list ... is an 0.6 homer rate sustainable by this kind of pitcher?
What are their home/road splits when on their games?
To what extent do their W/L's depend on bullpen or team quality? etc etc... have a feeling, from David Wells, John Smiley and Ted Higuera, that such pitchers can win pitching for bad teams...
Lee also has tremendous mechanics and his velocity peaked in 2009. I'm not too worried about him despite the high IPs count.
Morrow on the other hand.. Maybe Z has another amazing trade brewing?
and I'm buying season tickets :- )
... I'm greedy. I'd like to see a handful of glam prospects dealt for AGone or Prince... and then some more inexpensive deals, like Gomes, Doumit, Bedard...
Hey, let's go from 100 L's to 100 W's in two years...
I can smell the smoke coming from Z's phone...he's been talking to everyone about everything. If no deal gets done...it will be because it would have been bad to do the deal.
but I got thinking about what options remain for the M's to address the offense with, and was pretty stoked when I put it all together.
Players who are available, which fit our need of 4th OF, 1B or DH, and will most certainly not cost much in terms of money, years or prospects:
Adam Laroche: 1B FA
Nick Johnson: 1B/DH FA
The Muscle: 1B/DH FA
Luke Scott: COF/1B/DH Bal - likely available for not much
Jack Cust: COF (sort of)/1B/DH FA
Johnny Gomes: COF (sort of)/1B/DH FA
None of those guys would cost anything, in the grand scheme of things, and each of them represents a significant boost to the offense. So much so that I'd be pretty well shocked if we don't come away with at least one from that list when the dust settles.
Now for the guys who will make you bite your lip when considering the cost, but would represent massive improvements to the franchise for the near and intermediate future:
A. Gone: GG 1B, 40HR lefty power. Entering prime, cheap contract x2 years. Will cost your best 3 prospects and then some, most likely. Worth it, but it's unclear if SD is actually open to moving him. If so, I'd say it's a lock that we're at the head of the line.
Jason Bay: LF, 25-30HR so-so fit for Safeco Field with combination of defensive concerns (probably a tick below average LF) and RH pull power (although he does hit cannon shots, so that helps mitigate a bit). Will likely cost $12-15mil x 4-6 years. *Could* age poorly, making final years problematic. Still, Jack has made public his interest in him, and he knew he wouldn't come cheap.
Carl Crawford: LF, we all know the guy. Vicious speed, good-but-not-great defensive reputation, medium power and very good BA/OBP. Rock-solid LF, and would create a rather interesting 1-2-3 of Ichiro-Figgins-Crawford (which I must admit is my favorite lineup to make in the MLB video games). Makes Saunders available for yet anOTHER trade, assuming we're not the only club that's high on him.
Prince Fielder: 1B, basically the same as A. Gone, but a higher salary to start with. Maybe more bat, probably less glove. I'd be pretty surprised if MIL wants to move him, since they indicated at the end of the season that they were looking to lock him up long-term.
Looks like this particular offseason seems to be a perfect one for Capt. Jack to make His Club. There are guys coming out of the woodwork who fit perfectly into this team, and he's already gotten the toughest piece to acquire in a bona fide TOR Ace/#1. Thanks to his shrewdness and foresight, we've got most of our higher profile glam prospects still in the hopper, and are more than capable of overhauling the offense without going bananas in the cash outlay and future roster complications from aging vets.
Seriously...how did we end up with a GM like this?
By a blowout, did you mean if we were being blown out, or the other way around? I don't see being blown out when Lee pitches. I expect we'll likely be in those games. I am used to the M's beinging out of games when opponents score four or more runs, but I don't see Lee giving up 4-5 runs or more through five innings. As for blowing out opponents, I'm not sure i remember what that is like from our perspective. We still need the MOTO bopper to get 140 RBI batting behind Ichiro and Figgins, and a few other non-black-hole bats (and gloves) to fill out the lineup.
The M's might only be up by 5+ runs once in every ten or fifteen Lee starts (unless Capt Jack lands AGone and one of the kids comes thru, LOL). But I'd sacrifice some win-expectancy percentage points to keep Lee fresh in 2010. He just threw close to 300 innings counting ST.
...would be to go out and add a big bopper and maybe one other OBP threat so that you get more 4-run leads in the 6th. :)
Its a boy!
My firstborn on the same day the Cliff Lee deal goes down. :-)
Usually I'm not fond of things which interrupt my hobbies like sports fandom or other games, but this is one of the rare exceptions where I can put down the ps3 controller and offer up some applause :)
Now, back to Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion hahaha, j/k.
Seriously, congrats. You namin' him Cliff, Lee or Felix?
You bundle of joy gives me hope that even a total roto-dweeb seamhead like me might some day have a family. LOL
What're you gonna the lad? I like the sound of Jack Lee :)
Same birthday as my daughter, who is 8 today!
Good luck!
Note to self: Roto-dweebs like me make the the worst name reccomendations. :-)
Thanks for the congrats Matt!
17 is a lucky number. :-)
lol I'm getting that a lot lately. A baseball nerd, an MMA fanatic, and a gamer too? Now all I need to do is become a nurse. :-)
Thanks for the congrats Jonez!
I think you should call up Zduriencik and offer to make him the boy's godfather. :)
Many blessings to you and your wife.
Maybe we'll catch you making some mistakes now that your sleep ratio is going to match up with Halman's EYE ratio?
when you say it like that, I sound quite...pathetic. ;)
I kid, I kid. :-) I'm a baseball nerd, an MMA fanatic, and a gamer, and I WISH I were in the medical field. :-)
What kind of games are you into?
Thanks Doc. The wife already hasn't had a drop of sleep since 2 am. :-)
Newborns are awesome ... but just wait until your baby is about 3, 4, 5 months old, too. That's when their personalities start taking shape, they start giving back in terms of smiles, hugs, etc., and it's quite a trip.
Nothing like it, seriously. Everything in the world is brand new to them and as you introduce them to it all, they give you credit for all of it :- )