Some of it sticks, some of it don't!
Surplus starter spaghetti

Due to the broken body parts of Felix, Iwakuma, Paxton and some other guy that now litter Safeco Field, the M's have had to dig deep into the pasta barrel to find "major league" (used carefully with some of these guys) arms to fill the void.  While a Fister or two was fairly available, we've rolled our own, to varying degrees of success.  Here's a sort of report, from the peanut gallery, assuredly, of the guys we've trotted out onto the mound.  Of course, I'm not including Gallardo (Thank goodness we've had his innings, but beyond that he's mostly been "Bleh!") or Miranda (currently our ace, he's mostly been good:  47 K's in 48 innings, btw).  

Chris Heston:  5 innings, ERA of 21.60.  'Nuff said.  But beyond that, didn't it look like he was playing slow pitch fast ball the other day?  Did he throw this way when he chucked a no hitter? Can't be.  27 batters couldn't get a hit off of that?  In case you think '17 is a SSS fluke, I will remind you that he threw 5 MLB innings in '16 and had an ERA of 10.80.  That doubles his sample size to a whole TEN '16-'17 MLB innings, and his combined ERA to 16.20.  Whew, maybe he isn't that bad, after all.  That looks WAY better than 20+!  Back in '15 he actually ran WHIPs below 20.7 (combined '16-'17), and was relatively decent.  Something happened after that.  He was pretty terrible in AAA in '16, tolerable this year.  But as a MLB pitcher over the last two years, he makes even the Tuffy Gosewischs look like a Pinball Wizard, lighting up the scoreboard.  If I never see him throw another game in a M's uniform I will not lament.  Not even close.

Dillon Overton:  18.1 innings, ERA of 6.38, FIP not much better.  OK, he's only walked 2 guys in those 18.1 innings, and one of them was an IBB, but the 4 homers and the scarcity of K's (3.9/9) mostly make him look like a BP pitcher.  The ERA of 11.47 and the 17.8 hits/9 for the Orcs last year don't light up the Confidence scoreboard, either.  He's given up 16 HR's in 42.2 MLB innings.  Really.  I'm not kidding.  He had a 1.79 WHIP in Tacoma this season, which makes last season's 1.3 (Nashville) look Kershaw-esque.  Once he moved past Rookie League, he's not given up less than 9 hits/9 innings at ANY level.  Flat out, he's not very good.  Please M's, never torture me with an Overton appearance again.

Ryan Weber:  He fell apart and started spurting oil on the field in his first M's appearance.  But he wasn't coyote ugly in his first 64.2 MLB innings with the Braves.  OK, he wasn't pretty, as his ERA+ was 79, but that early him is a gazillion light years ahead of the last two years of Heston and Overton.  I feel sorry for Weber, a bit;  he's had a 1.17 WHIP in 40 MLB innings as a starter and he's been a terrific AAA pitcher, three years running.  I won't cringe if we see him as a starter again.  I promise.

Christian Bergman:  Is 29 years old with a lifetime history of a whole 15 MLB starts before this season.  In his 147.2 career innibngs, he was giving up about 12 hits per 9 innings.  A Blue Chipper he isn't, although he's been decent in 80+ PCL innings over the past two seasons.  Well, he's better than decent in Tacoma this season, sporting a 5-0 record in 5 starts and 29 innings.  At age 25, in AA ball in '13, Bergman was pretty good, other than that, he's been organizational fodder.    He's done well this year.  There is not much reason to believe it will continue.  Meh!

Chase De Jong:  He's young (23), but his 24 innings of 11 hits/9, and a BB/9 that exactly equals his K/9 (4.1) doesn't inspire a lot of hope.  OK, I will admit that he had 10 good Tacoma innings this year, and 142 really nice (1.02 WHIP) AA (Tulsa) innings last year.  Since '15, his MiLB stuff has established himself as a MLB contender, about 8 hits/9 and about 8 K/9.  I'm willing to see more, but not if we're playing for September.  Well, OK, one more start and that might be it!  Better yet, make him earn it from the pen.

Sam Gavligio:  Comes with the least fanfare of the bunch, but had a pretty dang good 1st MLB start.  Ove the last 3 seasons he has been pretty reliable in Tacoma, even better this year.  He's had a career AAA 1.24 WHIP and gives up less than 9 hits per., in 197 innings.  He was worse than that in AA, and isn't a top 25 farm guy, by any means.  But he's thrown well enough in AAA to deserve a Safeco shot.   He managed to stick to the wall for one start, at least.  Compared to the much more "hyped" Heston and Overton, he's some kind of a Marichal or Kaat.  Maybe he's figured something out.  He certainly hasn't been atrocious and that alone beats some of the guys above. The fact that he's been way better than that gives him a couple more of fill-in starts, in my book.

Robert Whalen:  While we haven't actually seen him, he's rumored to be a MLB starter, he's young (23) and does actually have MLB experience (Atl.)  Maybe the rumors are right. He's 0-2 in Tacoma, walking 4 guys per, but only giving up 8 hits.  His career MiLB H/9 is about 7, so there is some stuff there.  He is wild, however.  He's likely better than some of the guys above and we may see him sometime, although he's dinged right now. I'll tip a wee dram of scotch to Dipoto if Whalen takes the mound rather than Heston (Ick!) or Overton (Eek!). Of course, I would do that if we put a 78 year old Gaylord Perry on the mound, throwing 4 different variations of a slobber ball, rather than Heston or Overton.  

Andrew Moore:  Hurry him up, already!  Sigh.

Drew Smyly:  Who he?

Moe

Comments

1
Electrokrakenjr's picture

Was fantastic. I mean 4 runs and 7 hits are whatever but 7 innings 9 ks 0 bb 101 pitches. 101 pitches to get through 7 with 9 ks AND 7 hits. Thats who I want pitching for me. Give us the talent already. Stop wasting our time with the hestons and the overtons of the world. Also having Zuni back with the big club should help immensely. Ruiz and Gosewich have 8 combined hits all year. I think it might be time for Steven Baron to get another look too. He's hitting much better than he ever has before (.801 ops with twice the walks and power he's never showed before) and just about anything would be better than ruiz/gosewich.

2

Meanwhile, the parts we gave up for Smyly:

- Luis Gohara, 20 year old with ace potential who was the best starting pitcher on our farm: 1.98 ERA in High-A, 9.7 K / 2,5 BB per 9. Continuing that TOR path.

- Ryan Yarbrough, 25 year old lefty starter: 3.45 ERA, 8.8 K / 2,3 BB per 9.  Would be a better option than any of the jokers on this list.

The Mariners also traded first-round pick Alex Jackson (who is hitting .297 / .355 / .568 for the Braves in High-A, with still-concerning eye and K rates) for Povse and Whelan, neither of whom they're willing to use yet.

If the point of the offseason emptying of Seattle's holdover minor league talent was for the express purpose of having a lot of option to throw at problems, can we at least hurl the more talented ones FIRST? I guess we're saving Whelan, Povse and Moore for some other emergency.  Whelan hasn't been throwing his A game all year, but Overton wasn't either and he got the call.  That 40-man barrier is the real problem with spaghetti themes: you gotta throw some spaghetti in the trash to fit more on your plate.

We'll see. De Jong gave up three homers in Tacoma yesterday so I'm not sure when he's getting that next callup. Gotta find more wall pasta I guess - or finally get some of our starters healthy.  Thanks for the rundown, moe.

3

It's a rough state currently.  Got to agree with G-Money on Moore, Povse and Whelan.  Surely they should be ahead of some of the guys already used. 

I do have one quibble.  Overton has not been tried as a starter.  He has finished 4 games while only starting 1.  He's only had a couple appearances that he had good stuff but when he's had good stuff it's been better than I've seen at all from De Jong, Heston or Weber.  His ERA was only 5.14 through the 16th, or before that ridiculous blowout where he mopped up 4 and a 3rd.  His lone start he only gave up 1 earned but had not been stretched out, going only 3 and change before the hook.  It was one of the days he didn't have his stuff though. 

6

Rendon poked one over.  2 innings, 4 hits, 2 BB's, 1 HR and 0 K's for Bergman so far.  I'm pretty surre that isn't good.  Double "Meh!"

7

450 feet to CF for Harper.  Told you to bet the over.  Oh, another shot for Rendon.

And 10 runs allowed by Bergman certainly shatters the over.  Meh.  Meh.  Meh.

Andrew Moore.....pleeeeeeze!

Are we still playing for '17...or are we now '18 focused.  If '17 is the target date...then throw your best pitchers.

8

Has been largely watching others.  Anything that happened in his 5.1 innings in Tacoma is almost entirely meaningless.  Five and a third innings?  His 18 innings with the Ms have been very inconsistent.  He's pitched only 23 innings so far and has been healthy, the 3 starters who went to the DL all have more.   I'm hopeful he comes through as long relief because it seems that's where he's stuck for now.  Maybe I'm the only one here who sees more with him but I'm staying behind him.  A filthy changeup from a lefty who can clear 90 and locate is a pretty good start to a profile.  For a starter.  Just needs more consistency which is often hard for a guy used to starting but suddenly working from the pen. 

9

Also, he's injured like 42 other arms in the org:

Of note: Max Povse, who was being converted to a relief role in Class AA Arkansas, has been sidelined with a hamstring strain.

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So let me get this straight: We traded Alex Jackson for pitching depth because we dumped all of the system depth, but by "pitching depth" we meant a pair of middle-inning reliever hopefuls?  What is this fascination DiPoto has with turning starters into relievers? Does he think he can then convert previous relievers into starters?

Can't wait to draft Tanner Houck or David Peterson in the first round in order to fill set-up roles in front of new closer James Paxton.

10

And what ever happened to pitching being the easy part for this team?  Did the Kingdome get rebuilt? 

12

The square "Billy and the Boingers Bootleg" suddenly.  Maybe just because anything could be more entertaining than this game. 

13

Bergman did give up 14 hits, 2 BB, 4 HR and 10 runs,

but he went all the way through 4 innings before giving way to the pen.  Atta boy kid, way to save the relief arms.

Meh Meh Meh, just as I said above.

14

1 H 0 BB 4 K.  I wish I could say anything about how he's pitching but I've barely been paying any attention.  

15

Good thing we kept Ruiz:  Per an Orioles announcement, catcher Francisco Pena has been outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers.

We could have just grabbed Pena.  Great arm and some thunder.

Or we could just call up Baron.  

I was going to do a new thread on him and askwhat do we keep Ruiz for?  But I was bummed out by the thought of writing about Ruiz, so I bailed out.

16

is gone once he's gone.  Tuffy has seemed to me to be the worst AAAA option they've run out in a long time.  If you ditch Ruiz to add Baron there's no looking back.  I don't think there's reason to look back though.  Put the best roster forward and keep trying.  The Sucre to Tuffy upgrade seems to deserve an E grade.  Was that cash, or is a player still yet to be named by the Rays?  Go ahead and name Sucre already, and thanks. 

Moore I could normally understand thinking he could use a few more starts but right now he couldn't do worse than our best did this last time around.  Or maybe Miranda is the best now?  Either way, it's those next few starts that the Mariners need the most.  

17

Ruiz is depressing.  I know he hit some last year, but he's looked exactly like a worn out 38 year old catcher this year.  Here's Francisco Pena's B-R page: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/penafr01.shtml

He can throw and isn't a bad (homer) type bat at catcher.  Or just give Baron the call, his bat has continually improved and he's a good thrower, too.  

18
RockiesJeff's picture

Thanks for your words Keith! I know people want a clubhouse presence...hire Ruiz as a coach/cheerleader. Could Baron be any worse?

Got home from a AAA game last night to see the Bergman I know from Colorado got on the plane. Very hittable!!!!!

20

He plays CF and walks are basically his only skill (along with a few steals I guess). With Gamel, Haniger and Dyson all available to play the position PLUS Martin in AAA (and a couple of players with similar profiles in AA with Chuck Taylor for OBP and Ian Miller for light-hitting steals) I'd have to assume Seattle is thinking of trading either Dyson or Martin for an arm and want whatever the hell Aplin is as a ready backup (because we don't have enough of those).  Hard to see them moving Haniger or Gamel right now.

We'll see.  DiPoto is a fan of doing many questionable moves at once - why make 3 trades when you can make 4?

21

Almost said that above, G.  I wondered if it was Booger, Marten or Heredia. 

Thought Heredia a longshot, and actually Dyson, too...as he might not bring much back.  So that left Boog and Marten as the usual suspects.  Will see.  You could be right about Dyson.

By the way, have you guys checked in on Karns?  8 starts, 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB and 10 K's.

Hmmmm.....I wonder if we might be ablse to use some of that, this year.

Will give Dipoto his due, he fleeced Arizona.  But he got schooled by KC. 

The Jackson trade, now that Povse is a bullpen guy, depends on Whalen making it into the rotation, and on a productive basis.

22

He's on the DL... Dont think we need another one of those...

23

Morgan Ensberg tweeted in Aug of 2015 that Andrew Aplin was the best CF in baseball..."I'm talking planet Earth"  Probably overstated, but clearly he's a quality defender that was blocked in Houston.  Is he another of the .340 OBP guys Dipoto is seeming to find everywhere? 

Surely you're right that another shoe or 3 are about to drop. 

24

Most Defensive Runs Saved This Season

Nolan Arenado 11

Jarrod Dyson 10

Addison Russell 10

Ben Revere ranks last -10

---------------------------------------

Aplin can glove it, and take a walk, but he's a 4th OF type. His offense doesn't play easily, his platoon splits are only occasionally useful (and usually reverse when they are) and he's not the level of stolen base threat that Dyson is. He only really makes sense on a team GLUTTED with those guys if at least one of them is on the move.

Because he's a lefty and Martin is as well, I'd think Martin - but then Dyson and Gamel are lefties too. Aplin just seems like a complete backup move, so yeah - we'll see what happens when we get more info on future moves for sure.

25

Kyle Lewis is participating in full baseball workouts. Will start playing in extended ST games in June. Ticketed for Clinton in mid-June

--------------------------

So at least there's SOME good injury news.  He still has time to get half a year in at Clinton and knock whatever rust he has off.  Kid has a LOT of talent, so I hope this is the last hiccup in his ascent up the ladder.

26

Have been under the weather this weekend ... convinced my wife that bed rest and zero work of any kind was in order, HEH ... back to bidness as usual shortly here.  In the meantime thanks Moe and Co.

27

Hope you're feeling 100% very soon.  Your disappearance had at least a few of us worried.

At least you're not as ill as the Ms, right? 

28

Hope you are well.

This has been a serpentine thread, even if not too long:  Started out about rotational fillers-in, spent a bit of time on Ruiz and C's, now morphs into an OF discussion.

Obviously we missed your steady hand on the tiller!  :)

29

......I'll morph it again.  With apologies, of course.

You may remember that I was once real high on farmhand Dario Pizzano.  In '13, at Clinton, he was basically a BB'ing, linedrive machine.  40 2B's (53 XB's) and a 61/48 Eye.  .311-.392-.471.

In '14, he started well in the High Desert, but saw his average fall upon promotion to Jackson.  He still had a AA 45/38 Eye.

In '15, he repeated at AA and returned to his linedrive ways:  .308-.366-.457.  19/20 Eye.  After 58 games, he was evidently about to be promoted to Tacoma when he suffered an injury, ending his season.

In '16, it was Tacoma, but he struggled mightely.  .259-.302-.364, and his Eye fell to 16/42.  He was sent back to AA and was actually worse.  Have no clue if he had lingering injury issues.

Back in Tacoma, he started out terrible this season, but the old Pizzano is now back; it seems he's added some punch.  After going 6 for 41 to start the season, with one lone double, he's been .300-.354-.650 over the past 28 days (65 PA's), with a 5/5 Eye, 6 2B's and 5 HR's.  That's the Pizzano I knew and loved, but with even more pop.

He's a man without a position, really.  He's sort of a LF, but even started one game at 1B this season, which I approve of.

If he keeps this up, we may see him later this season. 

C'mon kid.

30

He could at least be a big piece of the puzzle staying next year or around the deadline. 

And Now Whalen is up

31

http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/24/seattle-mariners-nick-neidert-scout...

I agree with most of that. His height challenges are counter-acted by his ability to hide the ball, which makes it seem faster than the low-90s he's throwing.  IMO he might not hide the ball as well if he were throwing it from a greater height differential/plane, so the two things may work in concert better than I even thought they did.  He's been sharpening up his breaking pitches without losing his terrific accuracy.

I don't like him as much as I liked Gohara, but I think Gohara can be a Lefty Zambrano type if his shoulder holds up. Neidert is more a #2-3 guy, but there's some Roy Oswalt in him that makes me sit up when I see him pitch. Based on our recent pitching luck I'm just hoping he makes it up off the farm without being devoured by cannibals, but that report is a good representation of what I like about him.

Might as well have some uplifting news, right? The 20 year old Neidert's 10th in the Cal League (among starters) in K/9, and 7th in K:BB ratio. Always nice when a young guy who knows how to pitch can also get plenty of Ks in a hitter's league. Fingers crossed for his survival. 

34

It took 89 wins to reach the AL Wild Card game last season.  It took 86 the season prior.

So let's just say that 88 wins does it this season.  88-74.

We're 20-27.  Doing some quick "figgering," we need to go 68-47 for the rest of the season, if we're going to reach 88 wins.

68-48 is a smooth 59% winning percentage.  Over a full season, if you won 58% of your games you would rack up almost 96 of them of them.  Did anybody real imagine this was a 96 win team, even healthy?

It will be a bit before we're at full strength with Haniger, Paxton, Felix and Iwakuma in the fold.  I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer, but don't bet anything you're afraid to lose that we make the playoffs.

I'm trying to be upbeat. Really.  I know that every 88 win team has a 20-27 stretch.  All of them.  And I know that, mathematically, it makes no difference if that cold stretch comes at the beginning of the season, the end, or somewhere in the middle.

But emotionally, it does.

I'm trying to not feel jinxed.  Really.  But, I'm not sure I'm winning.

Sigh.

Keith

35

If we lose today and KC wins, we're the worst.  It's a tough climb to the playoffs when literally EVERY team is ahead of you, but it's still doable at this point. And hey, the Mariners are still capable of pretty historic things - check this out:

-----------------

Mariners joined 1887 Washington, 1969 Padres as teams to score no more than 1 run 5 games row, and opponents scored at least 40 total runs

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36

Amazing.  I even wondered aloud if we were relatively slump-proof in run scoring ability.

37

even though they're more minor, Cano and Cruz being less than 100% then losing DH for a few games too helped it happen.  Catchers and pitchers both hitting like pitchers or worse...Cruz and Cano coming through as the 1 RPG stretch ends only highlights it.

I wouldn't have said they were slump proof but the slumps shouldn't be as extensive as usual.  As long as their heads are in the game which is the question Matt is putting forth.  I've still got hope for the season but they're in a huge hole now.  

39

So eventually it will head that direction.  As to a 15-5 stretch, maybe late June or into July?  Certainly doubtful of that starting tomorrow as well.  Maniger, Paxton and Smyly are the 3 I'm most antsy to get going but Smyly is still probably more than a month away.  Hopefully we will see the rotation Dipoto put together actually together and then there's a chance at a 20 win month or so.

Got to stay 10-10 or so for now though.  The 5 straight losses, 10 of 13 at one point.  It still only got to 9-11 in the last 20 at the worst points. 

40

Another decent outing, considering that he should have never had to face Murphy and Rendon in the 1st inning.  He'll get another chance, too.  Moore is due up for Tacoma today.  Overton not sharp yesterday.

We have Miranda and Gallardo up today and tomorrow.  Looks like Saturday's starter has not yet been announced.  It would be Heston's day on the mound, but that isn't happening.  Overton isn't throwing.  Bergman threw on Tuesday, he's not going with 3 days rest.  Weber is still broken.  De Jong threw 5 innings in Tacoma on Monday.  He could go.  But he was terrible in Tacoma on Monday.  He's been pretty terrible for Seattle, generally. His last two outings specifically.  Please no.  Whalen threw 8 innings for Tacoma on the 19th, and they were pretty good innings.  He could go.  Tyler Cloyd, last in the Bigs in '13, and recently out of the Indy leagues, has been really good in Tacoma (1.2 innings, 7 hits, 0 runs), but he's not a 40-man guy.

So, I suppose the best bet is that Whalen goes on Saturday.  I could live with that.  All the same, let's just make the roster move and roll Moore out there.  We've got to 40-man him at some point, anyway. It's his job soon enough.  If this is a Super Two deal, it's driving me bonkers.

Go team.

41

Whalen recalled yesterday afternoon.  He'll almost certainly get Saturday's start.

42

Andrew Moore went 6 innings for Tacoma last night: 4 hits, 1 BB, 5 K's.  1 of the hits was a two run homer...the only runs he allowed.

In 4 AAA starts he's thrown 24.2 innings, allowed 19 hits, walked 5 guys and K'ed 24 more. His Pitches-Strikes have looked like this:

92-59

91-62

101-77

91-59

In three of his starts he's walked 1 or 0.

He has allowed 1 HR in each game.

For the year (AA/AAA)he pitched 59.1 innings and allowed 37 hits.  

Just for comparison:  In '86, Greg Maddux split most of the season between AA and AAA (before getting 5 starts in Chicago, age 20).  He thre 191 MiLB innings (31 more in the NL), allowing 176 hits and 45 BB's.  He K'ed 100 and allowed only 4 HR's.  Drafted out of HS, Maddux threw just over 460 MiLB innings before the call.

Moore threw 347 innings in college and has now hucked 261 pro innings.  

Whalen, drafted out of HS, had thrown 259 pro innings, before the Braves called him up last season.  In his AA/AAA stint, before he came up, Whalen threw 120 innings, allowed 99 hits, walked 44 and K'ed 112.

Andrew Moore is ready.

So am I.

44

Because they just HAD to add another AAA centerfielder to the squad.  If it was in anticipation of a trade, that trade has not yet materialized and the pitcher with ML experience is gone.

I think he was scheduled tonight in Tacoma too - does anybody know who's replacing him?

46

4 innings, 5 hits, 0 BB's, 2 runs, 55 pitches, 38 strikes.

And I just point out that Pizzano had returned to his hitting ways in Tacoma...and they ship him down to Arkansas.  I give up.

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