Smoak and Adrian Gonzalez

=== Taro Sez ===

When in doubt, hittracker:  http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2010_598&type=hitter

Average Hr so far around 403.9 feet. The power is there.

The upside is Mark Teixiera. Lots of similarities there. Similar body type, similar track record, similar eye, similar height, both sllick defenders, both in MLB at age 23.

.

=== Hurt Me, Dept. ===

Thanks for the HR distances champ.  Very suggestive.  As NYM was quick to point out, you are certainly not talking about a Kotchman, or even a John Olerud, cap to the power here.  Smoak gets his pitch and squares it up and he's going to get 400 feet.  In Safeco, that's threatening the Cafe window out there, not the sixth row only.

..............

The Teixeira level of performance, in very broad strokes, is definitely feasible.  Though Tex personally had the mammoth HR totals (IIRC) from day one, minors and all.  Was a HS tater sensation in the Jeff Clement mold.

IMHO Smoak may need to apply a little more savvy to build the HR totals. Tex just leans into 'em and they're gone.  But the basic point is that Smoak offers serious power potential as well.  Agreed.

Not to quibble.  Basic level, ya.  I might go for comps with a tad less easy power than that Tex dude.

.

=== AGone ===

A comp I have an inkling for, is Adrian Gonzalez.  He had some learning to do, both EYE and HR, but had the natural swing and talent to build through the years. 

Of course Smoak was a college player, but still, points of similarity that attract me ...

  • Huge draft sensation (AGone was a #1 overall; Smoak "fell" to #11 due to signability worries)
  • Slope of development arc -- gentler than fans would have liked, but with lingering momentum
  • Somewhat-mechanical LH'ers, not ballet-graceful body control like Kotchman or Olerud had
  • Yet with real good hands and hand-eye coordination, and pretty swings
  • HIT and OBP first
  • PWR second
  • Fringe-ML level of performance at age 22 (adjusting one year for HS vs college)
  • Dominate-AAA, battle-ML performance at age 23
  • Jells as #4 hitter at age 24 (we hope)
  • Big upside age 27 (we hope)

A Mariners fan might almost hope that Justin Smoak is a bit more gifted than AGone.  He's certainly taller, with perhaps a better swing, and pretty much the same 75-HIT grade that I remember Gonzalez having.

It's not a perfect comp, but .... how ironic that, as hard as we-all were clamoring for Adrian Gonzalez, the M's just got 5-6 years of a kid who is as close as you'll get to a rookie version of Adrian Gonzalez.

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Comments

1
Taro's picture

Gonzalez actually has hit for more power than Tex (and is a little bigger). Very different ballparks they've played in.
.268 IsoP for Gonzalez on the road. Very similar statistically IMO. Tex is a switch hitter and has a higher LD%. Gonzalez slightly more pop more Ks.
Smoak is more of a lower K guy and a high LD% hitter.
I guess Tex hit a few more homers in the minors, but Smoak hit more in College and both zoomed through the minors quickly and reached MLB at 23.

2

Tex's 19 homers in his first 80-odd pro games out of college, compared to Gonzalez' .448 career slugging in the minors.
Note that in Gonzalez' age-21 season, for example, he hit 5 homers all year.  There are excuses for that, but Teixeira would never go 5 HR for a full season no matter what.
Tex slugged .583 career in the minors - he came out of college hitting HR's like Russ Branyan as well as the legendary HS homerfest.
After Gonzalez matured, of course, the power came through, which is what we're hoping for on Smoak.
..............
Operative idea:  some guys have easy power and will never have a season on their baseball cards without lots of HR's ... others need to use their noggins to get to the pitcher...

3

That some other player might not arrive at the same destination that Teixeira did, the 300/400/550 destination, by a different road than Tex did.
As you mention, Gonzalez now out-Tex's Tex.  :- )
300/400/550 by no means unrealistic for Smoak.

4

Here is Kevin Goldstein calling Smoak "a switch-hitting Justin Morneau," which probably sees your Teixeira and raises it.  :- )
Fantasybaseball101.com also goes to Mark Teixeira as its first comp for Smoak.

7

Just for fun...compare what we were going to lose to get Gonzalez in terms of players and dollars vs. what we gave up to get Smoak. Just amazing! If we are not going to compete for the West this year, we might as well get ready for next year and beyond. Please let sunk costs be sunk costs.

8
Taro's picture

Interesting article on Smoak's splits. It looks like this is something that goes back to his college days:
http://www.bbtia.com/the-clubhouse/2010/7/10/hindsights-vol-1-the-cliffl...
This is actually a pretty decent flaw... Smoak has never hit lefties at any level and his splits have gotten even more extreme as hes reached MLB. It suggests a VASTLY superior swing on the right side of the plate as opposed to the left side.
Smoak's biggest MLB comp was Mark Texiera for me, but this news limits his ceiing a bit. Texiera is someone who is equally good at both sides of the plate. Smoak has a VERY high% of being as good as Tex as a lefty, but his righty splits are so bad you almost wonder why he doesn't just hit solely as a lefty.
This news makes me prefer Montero, but Smoak still has an excellent chance at being a high 800s OPS 1B with a slick glove. Thats better than anything we've had since Olerud. Its just a matter of how competent he will become vs LH pitching.

9

...the Mariners traded Tyson Gillies (slaptacular CFer with Lofton upside), Phillippe Aumont (mechanically atrocious starting pitcher with Kevin Brown upside) and J.C. Ramirez (stagnated big upside prospect still struggling with A ball) for half a season of Cliff Lee, Adrian Gonzalez before he jells and three nothing prospects?
That's almost comically amazing work by Z...
I am still licking the wounds of a wasted season and a lost ace starting pitcher...but I've got to admit...we did well to trade for Lee...we traded nothing of real value to the org and got a tremendous prospect and org depth.

10

... takes a pretty crazed swing from that side.
Zduriencik emphasized that Smoak does not yet know when to go for it, and when not to.  The same brain that drives the LH pitch selection will drive the RH pitch selection, so personally am not sweating the splits long-term.
Even if he had trouble vs LHP's long-term, that's 15-20% of his AB's in the AL these days...
..................
This kinda player will tend to come around from the weak side.  No worries mate.

11

You would give Gillies, Aumont, Juan Ramirez and a lot more for Justin Smoak, never mind getting Beaven and The Lee Experience into the bargain...
Per the S&S Pyramid Theory, one Justin Smoak is worth manyyyyyyyy times a fungible Grade B prospect...  you can only play 9 at a time out there...
.................
The M's just crawled out of the coffin and got their franchise clomping around the grass again.

13
Taro's picture

Given how long hes struglled with this, I think it might just be a matter of his swing being longer from that side. Its not a big deal if he mashes RHP to bits (as long as he can manage mid 700s OPS vs lefties).
You almost wonder whether he'd benefit from being a straight-up lefty.

14

1. Supposedly, just from watching Lee, Vargas learned things he considered hugely important about how to mix his pitches and how to control the pace of the game, potentially moving Vargas from fringe guy to solid BOR starter.
2. ESPN showed Lee's career ERA in Arlington is awful, and he's getting knocked around there tonight.  So he may not be that awesome for Texas after all they paid.
3. Buster Olney also noted that Aumont has been struggling so much that they demoted him from AA to A.  They made the Phillies look like total chumps.
Wonder why Z isn't a millionaire from flipping real estate.

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