Shock the Monkey

 

Jack Zduriencik has amassed a lot of hitting talent here.  Did you read River Avenue Blues when they realized that Zduriencik had wound up with Smoak AND Montero, along with Ackley?  It would be one thing if Jose Vidro or Yuniesky were failing here.  No, the people failing here are the most pedigreed young hitters in baseball.

......................

Kyle Seager especially.  He's a young hitter with a truly remarkable ability to pull balls hard in the air to RF.  He is slugging .566 on the road, and .290 at home.  The kid might be a superstar for all we know, prorates to 35 homers as a road hitter, and Safeco is simply destroying him.  I'm sick to the gut of watching it happen.

.

=== Tommy Lasorda, Dept. ===

Meanwhile, the M's .204 average and .302 slugging percentage, at Safeco, is once again literally deadball era.  The National League, in 1906, batted .244 with a .310 slugging average.

A major part of coaching, of sports psychology, is to convince a talented young player that he can play.  If you don't want to develop Carlos Guillen or David Ortiz or Matt Thornton, somebody else will.  Yes, Dustin Ackley is a grown man, and is supposed to be tough.  But:  would some other organization have Ackley in a better mental state than he is in right now?

That's not to bust Wedge.  He goes on TV and tells everybody that Ackley's going to be a great hitter, so just relax.  It's clear that Wedge puts a lot of effort into confidence-building.

It's all moot when --- > Safeco destroys talented young players and the org responds by --- > saying, you can't use that as an excuse; make adjustments.  They can't!  These guys can't hit in Safeco.  I mean, who can?  Roids are over.

So Jaso tells you, the M's don't try to pull the ball in the air any more.  Which is, incidentally, how you win AL baseball games, by pulling the ball in the air.

................

The appropriate reaction to the 2012 M's season isn't to increase the electrical flow (by yelling at them).  The appropriate reaction is to remove the electrodes from their chakras.  Or, go ahead and shock the monkey.  Shock the monkey to life ... wheels keep turnin', something's burnin', guess I'm learnin'.

Let's get clear about this, huh?  Something needs to be done about Safeco, and fast.  If you don't fix Safeco, at least don't yell at the Mariners.  They hit, when conditions allow.

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Comments

1

My problem is you bring in the fences then the pitching gets hurt so it's not really gonna help the team overall. What you add in hitting, you lose in pitching.

2
ghost's picture

Our pitching is actually LOUSY right now. Vargas threw three straight howler games, came home to Safeco and threw a gem. That isn't a coincidence, right? Beavan had a lot of his QSs at home, last year and this. My point is...although I agree that they need to make Safeco a fairer place to play, we need to get much better pitching because without that, we're still a sub-.500 team.

3

If we don't have good pitchers, we need to get them.
If we have good position players, but the park is the biggest factor in turning them into bad position players, you have a situation that needs to be fixed.
These guys are human beings and human beings will not voluntarily subject themselves to injustice if they have a choice. Good players are not guaranteed to fall in your lap in every draft or International FA signing. They're just about guaranteed to not come here by choice anymore. I certainly wouldn't blame a guy like Hamilton for looking at what happened to other guys who came here and saying, "nah, I'll pass on Seattle...nice place, but part of my baseball experience is actually for me along with the team".
Whether they should "man up" or not is a moot point.  The people in power have to realize by now that the very fact that they employ these guys to do a job and refuse to address the obstacles that prevent them from doing their job is an injustice.  This injustice is their responsibility.
It's no different than me telling my sales force that half of you can use all the tools at your disposal here in the air conditioned office to make your sales.  The other half of you have to make the same numbers, but you gotta use your laptops out there on the picnic tables (especially here in Atlanta in July).  Don't forget to bring your extra batteries and sunglasses so you can read your screens.  No excuses allowed.
I'm pretty sure you'd have a high turnover for half of your sales force, once they were free to negotiate with another company.

4

Absolutely, we need better pitching.
Noesi's been great at home, but awful on the road. Is part of that the Safe? Maybe. But then all it's doing is camouflaging how awful his approach has been and allowing him to stay in the rotation longer than he should.
Road pitching matters, and you need quality pitching to win a playoff series, let alone a title. Right now the park is "TOO" fair to pitchers. Beavan is actually better on the road than at the Safe for his career, BTW. Millwood is better on the road this year than at home.
But the staff as a whole has a .620 OPS-against at home and .800 on the road. Will it still have that when Hultzen, Capps and the rest of the minor league arms get here? I dunno. I certainly don't want the park encouraging us to keep pitchers who can't win playoff games, though.
Vargas, OPS against, last three years:
2010 .657 home, .747 road
2011 .686 home, .749 road
2012: .640 home, .822 road
Vargas needs to bring his road #s back to earth this year, but even if he comes back to .750 is he worth an extension?
Seattle vs Texas, Road OPS-against, last three years:
2010: .768 vs .714
2011: .728 vs .655
2012: .799 vs .653
That's who we're competing with. Masking .780 OPS-against pitchers by using a huge home park won't help us if the teams coming in to the Safe have even better pitchers to use in that park.
Now's as good a time as any to make that change to the Safe. We don't have Silvas and Washburns and Batistas under contract who need the park to get any semblance of their FA contract's worth out of em.
We're bringing up a ton of young pitching. Let em pitch in a fairer park so we know which ones are the good pitchers and which are an illusion.
~G

5

As Silentpadna says, though, the question is whether the hitters will be helped a lot more than the (new) pitchers will be hurt.  We have three factors here, if the roof is closed more, or home plate is moved out, or the balls are kept in a humidor, or whatever:
1.  The pitchers give up 10% more runs by nature
2.  The hitters score 10% more runs by nature
3.  The hitters break through a mental block and score 50% more runs* because they're no longer resigned to failure and change their approaches
But:  you could be right Denise.  Probably we're all guessing.

6

In the meantime, you're costing YOURSELF money .... for what?
:daps: Russ

7

... which is eminently logical, since he's a soft-tossing fly ball lefthander.  Check, check, check.
That's what I woulda thought, what you guys said above.
1.  Make Safeco fair.
2.  Collect hitting benefits.
3.  Change pitching staff over from "lousy pitchers camouflaged by Safeco" to "good pitchers."
:shrug:

8

1.  Dustin Ackley "ought to" be striking out around 13% of PAs based on his total record pre-MLB.  Instead, he's striking out 21% of the time.  Instead of being much better than average, he's worse.  By my rough estimate, that's costing him about 50 points of OPS.
2. Sandy is correct that Justin Smoak was not a massive slugger in the minors, and that his excellent overall stats were dependent on patience combined with decent power.  He needed those 14% walk rates (since his ISO was not overwhelming), but he got them.  Now he has neither.
3. Mike Carp slugged .494 after returning in July.  This year he's been either DL'd or unlucky.
My long-term offense plan as of February 1, 2012 would have started with those three names.
Where is super-selective Ackley?  Where is patient Smoak who hits with authority?  Where is late-2011 Carp?
Mightn't this team OPS+ around 100 if that wishful-thinking trio were existent?
So, query: how much of the above is due to Safeco park factors?  (that's not snarky, it's a question)

9

That was the last point I meant to make, but had to scoot off to a meeting. We can't forget that while we expect these players to "team" guys, they're also their own men. To the same extent that we work to better ourselves and our families, we should expect no less from them. When a situation comes about to where it is no longer a fair exchange, why would we expect the party that is not getting the just rewards to stay in the relationship? When a young boy sets out to become a good, then great athlete, it's not unfair at all once they become young men, for them to consider their own legacy in the game, should they make it that far. Balance that with team contribution and you get a good situation, where the player is rewarded fairly for giving his best.
Strange as it may seem, the game was more fair in the Kingdome. I can't believe I'm even saying that....

10

...And it's tougher to answer than the simple numbers comparison. I say that because it's becoming painfully obvious, especially given Jaso's quote, that the hitters change their gameplans because of it.
It's also fair to assume that opposing pitchers change their gameplans as well. The other guys study and scout too.
How to quanitfy that is certainly a challenge. Do we have to wait for Ackley and those other guys we suspect are good to bolt and excel somewhere else to builld more evidence? If we do that, we are being reactive and blowing a huge commodity: time. Jeff's point that when you win the individual battle against the pitcher and still lose, it's killer mentally. Most guys can deal with a string of lineouts hit right at guys - that's just luck. But crushing a home run that everyone else gets rewarded for while you get an out would have to wear on you.

11
Taro's picture

I understand your argument on a neutral basis, but what if 90% of your team core doesn't even hit long fly-balls to LF-CF?
When you envision our team core for the next several years, its hard to imagine how they would actually benefit from moving the fences in.
Seager, Saunders, Ackley, Carp and Jaso have COMBINED for 3 HRs to LF in their careers so far (including road parks).
In fact, the ONLY opposite field HR that that combo of players has hit in their careers on the road is Ackley off of Kuroda this year at Yankee. ONE HR to LF on the road for those 5 core players over the course of their careers.
The reality I think, is that moving the fences in would hurt us far more than it would help us.

12
Taro's picture

To expand even more on how extreme we've built our offense to Safeco. These 5 players have combined for 3 opposite field HRs over a career 2383 balls in play. These guys are roughly half of our offensive lineup.
The AVERAGE RH batter in 2012 has pulled 26.8% of their balls in play. Of that 6.64% have been HRs.
Over the same number of balls-in-play (2383) a league-average RH batter in 2012 would have hit 42.4 Hrs to LF.
42.4 HRs compared to 3+? The difference is almost preposterous. Granted not every opposing hitter will be RH, but this just illustrates how Z has managed to build a roster that hits to Safeco's dimensions.
This doesn't include Ichiro, Nick Franklin, or any other LH/SH hitters we bring in to play 1B and DH in the future.
Despite the wierd early season splits, this isn't the Bavasi team of years past. The offense is actually built for Safeco and you'd be destroying a HUGE competitive advantage by bringing the fences in IMO.

13
Taro's picture

When you look at the long-term offensive lineup, none of the hitters actually stand to benefit much from moving the fences in either than Montero, who himself has power to all fields and is a decent fit for the park because of it.
Saunders - Safeco fit
Seager - extreme Safeco fit (ALL power to RF, LD/GBs to LF+CF)
Ackley - hits to all fields, high LD%, power to RF
Jaso - extreme Safeco fit
Montero - massive power to all fields
Franklin - extreme Safeco fit
Gut - decent fit for a RH (should be around a couple more years)
Carp - if you believe in him is a great Safeco fit (LH with massive power)
The only other holes in the lineup either than that core is a corner OF spot, 1B, and DH. You should be able to find decent offense there outside the organization whether by trade or FA.
Moving in the fences wouldn't significantly benefit anyone in the core team either than maybe Montero. NO ONE else on the team has significant power to left field. Seager and Saunders do not have SINGLE HR IN THEIR CAREER TO LF (Safeco or not). Ackley has ONE. Carp has two.
And on the flipside, ALL of the pitchers would suffer. There are a LOT more generic RH hitters with marginal pop on opposing teams than there are on the Mariners.
The debate about whether to fix the air flow in Safeco is probably more relevant than the debate about bringing the fences in (although that itself would increase HRs to LF/CF). Its almost certain that the opposition would benefit more from smaller dimensions.

14
Taro's picture

One thing that confuses me about Jaso's quote is that he in actually hitting for power just fine in Safeco.
And he himself does not have ANY HRs in his career to LF. Not one.
You could move the fences in to 350 in LF-CF and it probably would have zero effect on him.

15
Kite's picture

Because they're LH pull hitters? This is the worst park for LHBs when it comes to doubles and triples, and Seager, Saunders, and Ackley live off doubles and triples. They fit terribly here. Safeco has a 92/88 double/triple factor for LHBs, worst in the MLB. But that's better than the 94 factor for HRs RHBs have. Safeco fits spray LHBs worse than it fits power RHBs. LH pull HR hitters + RH spray hitters is the "correct" way to build this team, but we've somehow build around LH spray hitters and RH power hitters (Wells, Montero, Olivo).
career H/A wRC+ splits:
Seager: 55/146
Ackley: 82/118
Saunders: 55/91
career Safeco splits:
Montero: 80/97
How can anyone say these players fit well in Safeco? After adjusting for park factors, they're still awful at home vs away. Extreme splits like this don't happen for no reason, there's something that's killing these players a lot more than park factors.
Franklin's another double hitting LHB, the worst fit for this park.
A key stat to how power is playing in Safeco this season:
2012 HR/FB% H/A:
Seager: 5.3%/13.8%
Montero: 9.7%/16.1%
Saunders: 4.8%/17.9%
Ackley: 0%/8.9%
Smoak: 6.8%/17.0%
I can understand 2, maybe 3 players, but every single young player having their HR/FB% drop 50-80%+ at home? As a team, the M's average 6% HR/FB at home vs 12% away this year. Over the last 4.5 years, it's been 7.2% vs 8.6%.
This team is full of LHBs that can't "abuse" our normal RF for HRs, nor hit opposite field often enough to "abuse" our normal LF for doubles/triples. I'd argue that the team Z's build is actually the worst fit for this team anyone could have created.

16
Taro's picture

Ya, Ackley is similar to Kotchman in that sense. In fact hes more productive overall to the opposite field/CF as a spray hitter, but the power is predominantly to RF.
The HR/FB% splits are probably a combination of a fluke and opposing pitchers pitching away from the lefty power at Safeco.
A guy like Seager is not going to lose HRs to left and left-center when he doesn't have a single HR in his career to that part of the field and is a LD/GB hitter to LF/CF. The vast majority of the hitters have nearly all of their power production to RF, and power plays fine at Safeco in that part of the park.
The loss of 2B/3Bs could be a bigger issue though, and could be also triggering the power drought (as pitchers aren't punished for pitching Mariner hitters away). Fixing the airflow might be something they need to think about. The Ms hitters aren't the hitter types that can go out consistently out the other way, and even the hits/doubles are gobbled up.
Moving in the fences isn't the solution though. That will help the opposition, but our hitters will continue to struggle hitting HRs to that part of the field and hits/2Bs will still be suppressed.

17
Taro's picture

Smoak is the one guy who is really a poor fit for the park when you look at his spray charts. 2010 and 2011 in particular. 2011 shows his issues especially. The HRs to LF and RF clear, but he doesn't have the power to clear CF.
Smoak is a guy who hits to all fields, but doesn't have particularly great power. This in comparison to Montero/roid-Boone who hit to all fields with tremendous power. Smoak has averaged 388 feet on his HRs this year vs Montero's 408 ft.
Its possible that Smoak could be a passable/mediocre starter in a small park, but his biggest issue is that he isn't a very good player. I certainly wouldn't want to destroy my competitive advantage to cater to a career 86 wRC+ 1B.

18
glmuskie's picture

1. Ghost & Gordon Are right, the park needs to be FAIR. As is, it's not.
2. I love pitching duels. But night after night of anemic offense - from both teams - is not fun for me to watch. As a fan, I want more offensive action. For fan attendance alone the park issues should be addressed by management
3. What SilentPadna said... all of it. :-)
4. Taro's argument is sound. But ... I still think these players, and the future players, need to have the mental boost to know that management has done something about the biased nature of the park. Next year when a fly ball dies on the warning track, they will know they really didn't get all of it.
5. Agreed that the fence dimensions are not necessarily the problem. The solution may be changing the roof opening strategy; adding baffles to the windward side of the park to break up the wind; using a dehumidifier for the balls... Were it me in management, I would get input from the players about how they think the park should be changed to make it more fair.

19
ghsot's picture

Seager and Ackley (and to a lesser extent Saunders) are BACKSPIN hitters when they hit it in the air...NOT topspin hitters like Ibanez. Which means despite the favorable dimensions down the RF line, they aren't going to get the home run boost that a normal lefty pull hitter would. Their balls will float and die just like everyone else's because the marine air at Safeco exaggerates spin and causes backspin flies to float and parachute whereas it causes topspin balls to cut through the air and drop.
So our supposed left handed power advantage is non-existent.

20

Of course the park is fair! It doesn't play any different for the M's than it does for whoever is visiting? The Rangers play in a park at the opposite extreme....is it unfair, too?
It's midnight in Montana and I spent a jillion hours on the road, so my figures are sparse, but you get the idea. They work pretty well if you back further.
2011 Home .222/.289/.333 57 HRS
Away .244/.296/.363 52 HRS
2010 Home .235/.301/.322 35 HRS
Away .236/.295/.356 66 HRS
2009 Home .255/.317/.395 76 HRS
Away .260/.310/.409 84 HRS
2008 Home .271/.322/.398 59 HRS (150 doubles/12 triples)
Away .260/.314/.381 65 HRS (135 doubles/8 triples)
In 2011 the M's hit more homers at home than they did on the road, but hit for a better average on the road.
In 2010 they het 31 more Homers on the road. Clear difference
In 2009 the numbers are very close
In 2008 they hit better at home than they did on the road.
Go back to their gravy years and you'll find that they raked at home, too.
Safeco is a tough park, granted. But there isn't evidence that it ruins most hitters. Olerud, Gar and Ichiro all seemed to hit pretty well in this park. And in most years the differences between the M's home and away performances were a matter of degrees, not tremendously huge.
I'm just not sure that tough environments dead ruin most hitters.
I am sure that Safeco is fair. That doesn't mean it isn't tougher than almost any other park to hit there, but it isn't a park that only impacts the balls off the bats of one team.
moe
Sa

21

Is Safeco a pitchers park? Absolutely. Multiple years of data say this is true.
WHY is Safeco a pitchers park? That, IMO, is very much up for debate. Stock wisdom is that Safeco kills right-hand power. So, just about everyone was cheering the lefty-power laden lineup that Z was assembling. But ... because in the first year of actually having these guys here ... the fact that they have struggled at home is being treated as proof that the park has (apparently) suddenly become much, much, much more unfair than it ever was previously.
Before this year ... the general concensus seemed to be that if you got lefty power, and avoided righty power, you would mitigate the park effect. So, my question is: Why wasn't this discussion on moving in the fences happening 8 years ago, 5 years ago, 3 years ago?
Ibanez had no problems with Safeco ... Griffey ... AROD ... Sexson in his first season ... Guillen in his one season ... Vidro in his first season ... Johjima in his first season.
The park itself does not change on an annual basis. But the home/road performance of a decade worth of hitters shows a few have more or less ignored Safeco issues, (Ichiro and Ibanez). Most have suffered some drop-off in production ... (say ... 50 points of OPS reduction in Safeco vs. on the road). But, the 'general' pattern (prior to this season), has been that many players arrive in Seattle, have one decent year, (Vidro, Johjima, Guillen) ... then tank the longer they stick around.
The problem here is that there are multiple variables at play. Seattle was getting lots of 30-something hitters, who were already on age-arc decline schedules. Maybe the park just exacerbates age issues ... it accellerates the process or just amplifies declining skill sets.
Most of these kids have under 700 PAs in the majors ... and split that in half and you're looking at small samples for guys going through adjustments.
Ackley in 2011:
Home: .245/.335/.399 -- .734 (.319 BABIP) 23/46 - BB/K - 188-PA
Away: .300/.362/.435 -- .797 (.356 BABIP) 17/33 - BB/K - 188-PA
Ackley in 2012:
Home: .217/.295/.252 -- .547 (.294 BABIP) 13/31- BB/K - 129-PA
Away: .256/.335/.387 -- .722 (.305 BABIP) 20/36 - BB/K - 188 PA
Is the park "killing" Ackley ... or is Ackley killing Ackley?
I think it important to remember that the 2012 home stats being cited are for Guess what guys ... young players have a LOT to deal with.
Jason Heyward - Atlanta (home/away OPS splits)
2010: .830 -- .869 -- (39 points better on road)
2011: .682 -- .734 -- (65 points better on road -- but miserable sophomore slump)
2012: .737 -- .952 -- (215 points better on road)
Should Atlanta pull in the fences, too? For the team, it registers slightly a hitters park the last two seasons. Is it the PARK that is driving Heyward's splits?

22
Taro's picture

Hurts them in basehits the other way, but not really HRs as the air actually seems to blow out sometimes in RF. In Seagers case, I don't think he gains a single HR even if you pull the fences in.
Ackley does seem to have some pop the other way, but it is minimal. Unless he was in a tiny park, hes going to have negligible power the other way.
I think theres a good argument for fixing the airflow. Our lefties are extreme flyball hitters the other way. They don't have a ton of power the other way, but they do probably lose a good deal of 2Bs/1Bs. If they air played normally, LF/CF would actually play favorably to base hits because of its dimensions.
Its normal for LHs to be flyball hitters the other way though (with LDs), so its possible that fixing the air may benefit the opposition more as well. The benefit/drawbacks of making that move would need to be closely examined (as this will likely boost RH HRs in addition to hits), but if you were to make a move thats where it would be.
Moving the fences in would just make things worse. Our guys may gain a handful of HRs, while the opposition gains several dozen. Our hitters simply don't have power that way either than Montero (who has power to all fields).

23
Taro's picture

The objective is to continue deflating generic RH power (of which we have zero long-term fits) and enhance basehits to LF/CF. Increase the production from our lineup, and continue to deflate the production from the opposition.
If we were to fix the ballpark, IMO it would actually be benefitial to fix the airflow issue and move the LF/CF dimensions out even 'further'.
With normal airflow and extra dimension, the park would now likely 'inflate' base hits to LF/CF. By moving the fences out the park can continue to deflate RH HRs now that they aren't knocked back. A utopia for LH hitters with pop to RF and backspin or topspin LDs to LF/CF (which is 80% of our lineup). Excellent defense in LF and CF would continue to be a premium with the extra dimensions despite the air playing normally.

24

Big Blog notes that Safeco is decimating hitters this year far worse than we've seen in the past. Cameron theorizes that the cooler than normal spring could be to blame.

26

But the conditioning will probably have "taken."
................
Yeah, obviously cooler weather affects things.  I wouldn't make too much soup off of that oyster.  
The Mariners' hitters were different this May than they were in May 2011.  Seager, Ackley, and others are good hitters getting leveled by bad conditions.  In May 2011 they had hitters who were bad everywhere, so the separation was less obvious.

27

Interesting thought put forward on Churchill's site by one of the commenters.
...the overpass on Royal Brougham was built in 2010 and may have changed the wind that comes in through the lower concourse in left field. While I obviously don't know if that changed anything a wind study certainly could. There is a correlation between the completion of the construction and the putrid offense from both the M's and visiting teams.
 
Weird thought that the infrastructure around Safeco changes the wind pattern but it does make some sense. Air coming up off the water would certainly hit that ramp. Coincidence or contributing factor?

28
Boomer's picture

The real issue is not that we can't compete "fairly" against other teams. They have to endure the same playing conditions, just as two teams who play in some severely windy day have the same challenge. The ball park is fair in that regard.
Where it's very unfair is in how it will pulverize the Mariners' hitters stats for half their games (these get used to measure these hitters both internally by the organization and also across the entire league). If you are an MLB position player, and in particular more of a power-hitter, what do you have to look forward to individually? Let's see, disappointment, discouragement, and frustration. Oh, and did I mention less salary (because apparently you can't hit)? Well, that is unless you are a good hitter already for another team and we trade for your bat, in which case we'll pay you a ton of money for quite a bit less production, Safeco will reduce you to a shell of your former self. Boy, doesn't that sound great to all those young position players out there? Come play for Seattle, where you'll hit .250, 20 HR, 75 RBI, and you'll learn to like it? You have to wonder if Seattle hitters dream of eventually being traded and enjoying a nice "jump" in their career stats.
Unsurprisingly, the travel brochure for the young pitchers is filled with all sorts of attractions, so a pitcher would kill to get traded to Seattle where they can go from "average" to dominant, resume stats boosted nicely, which will assure some sweet free-agent contract down the road when the Mariners part ways with them.

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