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Sabermetrics

Zeus' Single-Inning Syndrome?

relaxxxxxx

Posted by

jemanji

7/29/16

Mon 4:01pm: DaddyO (1) Ground control to Major Tom. We have liftoff on a new thread.

HEH! I loooov eet ...

Am not going to paste in the 41 different shouts that fret about Paxton's 'tendency' to clump hits in bad innings. Also am not going to spend any time on my own perceptions, since that's a little bit like Don Jr. telling you that he thinks Don Sr. is pretty swell. Fine as far as it goes, but not the definitive place to get an opinion.

Instead, Dr. D will succor you with one reminder. You have the entire sabermetric mountain range, 1975-2016, telling you it's not so. James Paxton, like every other pitcher in major league baseball, has either (1) LITTLE, or else (2) absolutely NO "knowledge of how to win" or how to lose. That's not to push back at you; it's to comfort you.

.....

James STARTED this whole enchilada because he was annoyed at sportswriters. Well, y'know. :- ) They would look at Steve Rogers going 15-14, 2.83 every year and go "Well, that Rogers is talented, but it sure would be nice if he knew how to win." Tommy John would pitch worse for the Dodgers and go 19-8. "There's a guy who knows how to win!"

Steve Rogers, Phil Niekro, Nolan Ryan, Pete Vuckovich, the sportswriters thought those were guys who didn't know how to bear down and GRRRRRRAB those wins when they were available for the taking. James demonstrated that, yes, it certainly LOOKS like that's what is happening. But it just isn't.

......

The same general principle extends beyond run support. It goes to strand rate, the degree to which runners clump in single innings. It goes to HR/fly rate, whether a few balls are caught on the warning track, or go into the second row. It goes to BABIP, whether extra grounders go through the infield. These are all things we have proven to be random, or almost completely random. Just like run support.

How long does it take for odds to even out? Maybe a year or four. Steve Rogers might have had four losing seasons in a row, none his fault. Four years! But in the middle of 1978, the right bet would have been for Steve Rogers to win his next game. The dice don't remember their last roll.

DR's PROGNOSIS

It does look kind of like Paxton is "imploding" once a game. This goes along with the fact that it is the 30-something SP's who have their release points down to a fine art. Any SINGLE walk, plus a ball through the infield, and then a 98-MPH fastball turned around... and you're in a "disaster" considering that you were assuming the shutout.

Personally I think there have been a whale of a lot of nuclear pitches that became base hits. That's what I gravitate towards. THAT is probably just my own bias.

....

But I will say this. If 80% of the "syndrome" is just Steve Rogers "syndrome" -- that is, illusory -- I will cheerfully grant that 20% of it could be related to self-image. In 1992-1993, Randy Johnson went through a little phase (about five months?) where he seemed to be thinking, "This can't really be happening, can it?" Check his splits for Aug-Sept 1992.

And when Johnson realized it was happening, he got mean.

I'm looking forward to the moment when James Paxton realizes that he holds the ball. But 'till then, we've got some psychological cover up there in the sabermetric mountains. Whether Zeus has things 100% figured out yet, you can give 'im to me if you don' want him.

Which, yeah, I realize you do want him :- ) judging by the Chris Sale conversation.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

There are at least three very

There are at least three very real things that COULD (as opposed to DO) affect a pitcher's penchant for icky innings.

(I just love playing games with words; and I didn't even grow up reading the Old Testament in Hebrew!)

1. Problems that come with pitching out of the stretch. You roll along retiring consecutive batters until you don't, at which point your mechanics change. Some might struggle with this more than the average pitcher.

2. Problems that come with the distraction of baserunners. During your consecutive batters roll you focus exclusively on the batter and executing your pitches. But once a runner reaches base your attention is at least dual. Some people handle this better than others. Me, I can't walk and chew chaw at the same time.

3. Problems that come with mental brittleness. Not everyone handles pressure equally well. Not everyone handles bad breaks equally well. While overall there may be a statistical reason to minimize this, any human being who has lived, breathed, worked and played in this life can vouch for it's reality. So it doesn't make sense that suddenly you step on a baseball field and it's a non-factor.

I don't doubt there's a certain amount of statistical noise when we notice what seems to be a pitcher's tendency for his shirt to completely unravel after a thread or two is pulled. I also don't doubt that all pitchers play in the 1960's rock band, The Human Beinz (for real, there was such a band). As fellow humans it shouldn't surprise us if some pitchers suffer from this malady. We all know family members, friends and coworkers who are emotionally more brittle than most.

Of course whether or not this applies to James Paxton is a separate matter, as is how often we might actually run into it in a population such as MLB pitchers where there is a lengthy weeding process of "one shall be taken and one shall be left."

Thanks for interacting on the subject, Doc. It's always stimulating to listen to someone who knows more about a subject than me.

Logical. Flawlessly logical. :: Spock to T'Pring ::

I agree with all of that. Sometimes young pitchers do have different numbers with runners on, and Sabe 101 posits that it's because of the stretch (since Sabe 101 posits that players are robots and not subject to emotional failings).

Paxton is allowing a lifetime SLG of .283 with runners in scoring position, though. .373 SLG with men on at all. Brittleness... this specific case, prolly not :- )

'nother thing ...

These guys been pitching from the stretch since high school. 49'ers fans thought Russell Wilson couldn't throw a decent ball from the pocket, forgetting that it was what he did in his back yard at 12 years old; it's the default thing he does.

Was interesting, though, watching Lester's case of the "yips" throwing to first base. Not sure how that does not become a fatal flaw, but it hasn't...

The Stretch

I'm cautious in this whole area, not being sure what to make of it.

But I've wondered a bit if the simple fact of pitching from the stretch changes things up. The physical reality is that the motion has changed some. The mental reality is that you worry about the guy on base a bit. Things have changed....

Maybe it isn't a "mental toughness" issue but one of motion?

And maybe it isn't an issue at all: Guys leading off innings are hitting .308-.328-.462 vs. him. All batters are at .306-.346-.449. Identical, basically.

With 2 outs and RISP he gets better: .259-.375-.333. No choke there. Check out his B-R split page and you see remarkibly consistent numbers...across a variety of situations.

But I suppose none of that real disproves the "One weak inning = mental breakdown" argument.

A BABIP of .376 indicates he is snake bitten. It isn't like he's throwing underhand, mind you.

Moe

Ah, you beat me to it

First time that ever happened.

Hey Daddy,

We touched on one or two of the same points....I was typing as you were Sending.

Are we great minds thinking alike or just idiots seeking company?

Keith

Well, it could be one great

Well, it could be one great mind and one idiot!

Just kidding. I would have volunteered to be the latter.

The statistics from Doc and you seem to indicate that overall batter performance does not really vary for Paxton.

'Twould be interesting to see a report that included leverage index as a parameter, as well as one that isolated for multiple runners on. Just fishing, here, not looking to validate my impressions.

But the staff ERA+ has been the problem for this club, aside from bad luck. The discussion looks reasonable to me.