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Even if Kemp weren't hobbled up, it would be hard to root for a guy who gets more tabloid face time than A-Rod, Jeter and Darvish. Especially if they traded my fave dirt dog Seager to get him.
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L.A. papers are selling the Kemp-Seattle trades, hot and heavy. There is nothing sourced in any of these that I've seen. However, LA does have a crowded outfield and a hole at 3B, so ...
It's one thing to go through and try to calculate Net WAR Values in a vacuum. It's another thing to talk about real-world "player pairs." It's a third thing to apply all these ideas to a specific roster. Let's do the latter.
This is just a 5-minute scanthrough, or "WAY DRAFT" as they say at Boeing. Create your own drafts off of it. "WAY DRAFTs" are best for seeing the large, inescapable conclusions, not the tiny nuances. I got no idea whether Seager will make a coupla million more or less.
Let's hold RF and SP3 "constant" at $25-30M, tapering from $30M early (since K-Pax is cheap) down to $25M later (since K-Pax costs more):
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No Kemp Trade
| Season | 3B | RF | SP3 | SP5 | WAR | $ |
| 2014 | Seager, $1M, 3.5 WAR | Cruz, $15M, 2.5 | Garza,$15M,3 | K-Pax | 11.5 | $31 |
| 2015 | Seager, $3M | Cruz | Garza | K-Pax | 12 | $33 |
| 2016 | Seager, $8M | $10M | Garza | K-Pax | 12 | $34 |
| 2017 | Seager, $12M | $10M* | $15M* | K-Pax,$5M | 11 | $38 |
| 2018 | DJ Peterson | $1M* | $25M* | K-Pax, $12M | 10 | $37 |
| 2019 | DJ Peterson | $25M* | $1M* | K-Pax, $18M | 11 | $39 |
Notice that Seager hits free agency as K-Pax hits the huge SP arb awards being pulled down by Kershaw, Price, Lincecum, Hamels, etc. Swapping Kyle Seager out in four years, cancels that out.
But otherwise, you've got a Seager-KPax combo and $25M to spend on your outfielder and your TOR add.
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Figure that if you get Tanaka, you expand the payroll. That is feasible, because of the business impact, but you can also --- > go with a cheaper player in RF.
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Seager for Kemp
OK, in this scenario, Matt Kemp takes Kyle Seager's payroll space, plus a lot:
| Season | 3B | RF | SP3 | SP5 | WAR | $ |
| 2014 | DJ Peterson, 1.5 WAR | KEMP, $16M,* 3-5 WAR | Garza,$15M,3 | K-Pax | 10-12 | $31 |
| 2015 | DJ, free | KEMP | Garza | K-Pax | 12 | $32 |
| 2016 | DJ free | KEMP | Garza | K-Pax | 12 | $34 |
| 2017 | DJ, $1M | KEMP | $10M | K-Pax,$5M | 11 | $31 |
| 2018 | DJ, $3M | KEMP | $10M* | K-Pax, $12M | 11 | $31 |
| 2019 | DJ, $8M | KEMP | $10M* | K-Pax, $18M | 11 | $51 |
To get Matt Kemp -- other things being equal -- you downgrade Seager to Romero and then to DJ, and you maybe sacrifice at the third TOR spot.
Notice the issue in the final years of DJ's and K-Pax's arb. Something has to give there; in Billy Beane's world, this somthing that gives is called --- > "shed K-Pax like a bad case of psoriasis." That is, you definitely lose K-Pax's 6th year in a Seager/Kemp scenario. Relative to other scenarios here.
By the way, I think that if Eminem's latest hit had been a Nirvana song, it would have been the song of which Kurt Cobain was most proud. Eminem is Cobain without the self-pity and whining.
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K-Pax and Goodies for Matt Kemp
The LA papers fantasize about James Paxton and three quite valuable add-ons for Kemp. Dr. D is most definitely NOT doing this; he would be hard-pressed to trade Paxton for David Price, who currently is not wearing a cast on his leg.
| Season | 3B | RF | SP3 | SP5 | WAR | $ |
| 2014 | Seager, $1M, 3.5 WAR | KEMP, $16M, 3-5 WAR | Garza,$15M,3 | Erasmo | 10 | $32 |
| 2015 | Seager, $3M | KEMP | Garza | Erasmo | 10 | $33 |
| 2016 | Seager, $8M | KEMP | Garza | Erasmo | 10 | $34 |
| 2017 | Seager, $12M | KEMP | $1M | Erasmo | 10 | $30 |
| 2018 | DJ Peterson | KEMP | $1M* | Erasmo, $3M | 10 | $20 |
| 2019 | DJ Peterson | KEMP | $1M* | Erasmo, $5M | 11 | $21 |
Here, you notice that compared to the other player-pairs ... er, player-quads ... the fact that you dealt James Paxton DID clear you Paxton's large arb salaries in years 5 and 6.
Of course, you also (apparently) gave up Stefen Romero, Nick Franklin and Tom Wilhelmsen...
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Exec Sum
If we were talking about a Roto keeper league, what would Dr. D learn from these player-quad scenarios?
OK, as a baseline, understand that our ideal is to have impact players at all four positions, 3B-RF-SP3-SP5, for about the same price of $30-35M. Then we're cooking with peanut oil. The scenarios give us the following deltas off of that ideal:
| Trade Scenario | Gain | Lose |
| No deal | All 4 positions with stars | Kemp down to (1) Cruz, then to (2) $10M player, later |
| Shed Seager | Impact RF, SP3, SP5 ... and superstar RF | Seager down to Romero/DJ (4 years) |
| Shed K-Pax | Impact 3B x4yrs, SP3, RF ... and superstar RF | Your blinkin' eyeballs. Plus prospects. |
Hm.
As always, I would love to grab Matt Kemp while holding on to Taijuan, K-Pax, Seager, and Zunino. I do that by offering 6-7 prospects, including Romero for 3B, as Zdurienick tried to do for Adrian Gonzalez. But GM's are hip to this, and they tend to agree with Dr. D that there is no combo of 6x grade B prospects that equal one James Paxton.
But in OUR SPECIFIC CASE, we shed the least blood by coughing up Kyle Seager. You could simply sign Nelson Cruz or similar schlub ... but in that scenario, you are coughing up (basically) Matt Kemp.
With the M's roster config, I want the OF. If I can't get the 6-for-1 deal, I probably focus on the Seager deal.
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It says here that you can upgrade from Garza, to Tanaka, in any of these situations by simply remembering that you have TV's in six states and several countries.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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Howard Lincoln would be rockin' the latest dance club trends before he knew it ...
Don' sweat it Mojo. Just Matty being Matty.
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Kemp better be "free" (
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There's a decent chance that Seager in his continued development outperforms Kemp, given his history of injury and expected age decline. Even if LA sends money our way, I hate to lose him. But that's what we get when we don't develop and keep young OFers like Choo and Jones. I'd rather keep our top young pitchers, since Hultzen has made that pool more shallow. Sign Tanaka, and hope that the 2013 ST beast Romero shows up and wins an OF spot. If you can figure Romero for 3B in Seager's absence, then you can figure him in a corner OF position or platoon as well.
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We think Ackley or Franklin can play a decent 3b. And then we sign a good SP and K Pax stays home in every scenario is my desires.
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No deal! That's the best of the deals mentioned above as far as Kemp is concerned. I'm not giving up Paxton, certainly. But....Seager straight up is a deal worth considering.
The trade Seager option is one that I've thought more and more about. He may well bring something very nice in return, one 'fer one. Could you get a very subsidized Kemp, one 'fer one? If you trade Seager, then you bet that Franklin/Romero/Deej (with Deej blossoming in '15) can hold down 3B this year, with something just north of 100 OPS.
For the right bauble in return, I would explore this one 'fer one option. (Edit: To be more clear. I don't think Kemp is the right guy I would do this for. If you throw out Kemp's huge '11 season, there isn't THAT much of a difference between these guys, offensively. Not at Kemp's even heavily subsidized cost. Assuming Kemp does not have another '11 in him (a fair assumption)...and assuming that Seager will have his career year---safely call it 135 OPS--- in the next three seasons, then you're paying a lot for not much improvement. But, I would trade Seager + for Kemp +, if that Dodger plus was Joc Pederson. Seager/Romero--or Taylor--/PIke/+ for Kemp + $ and Pederson? I'm in. I'll bet Seager + Taylor/ Pike would get close. I would have no problem with Franklin as my everyday 3B in '14. Saunders/Pederson/Kemp across the OF would be stellar. Add Guti as #4 and we could really go get it.
Seager's a controlled cost for 4 years. The salary-laden Dodgers would love that! He plays a position, well, that they need badly. I"ll bet you could make this discussion happen. I've been encouraging a Van Slyke move, in tandem with Kemp, for a long time. But now I'm thinking bigger.
BTW: Could you get Stanton for Seager/ERAM/Ackley? Would you?
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Doc has published work suggesting how rare it is that a hard throwing lefty starter *doesn't* succeed. On top of that we have dominant first major league starts and all that that suggests as far as future success for a starter, based on Bill James's work. Yet, the blogosphere outside of here is "meh" regarding Paxton. Meanwhile, everyone seems convinced Sonny Gray is a #1 or 2 right now. But, check the stats of both last September, and tell me why no similar love for James?
I constantly hear that fans esteem their own prospects higher than they deserve, but in our case, for whatever reason, we do the opposite. It's been going on since Choo and Jones.
We have gems in Franklin and Paxton. I am glad to see we aren't in any hurry to give them away for damaged goods. LA can have one or the other. They can't have both, unless maybe if Van Slyke is a ptbnl in case Kemp falls apart or something.
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Not much to disagree with MW.
But if they throw in Pederson.....things begin to change.
We have young OF's on the way in Blash and Pizzano (I think both will be hitters), but neither play CF.
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Not sure where the rumors are coming from regarding Kemp on the block. Last thing Dylan Hernandez, the quite good Dodger beat reporter for the LATimes, reported was that Kemp's camp was told he would NOT be traded. I noticed somebody in Boston speculating on a Kemp/M's trade been it's been all quiet down here on the southwestern front. Not saying Boston sports media makes stuff up, but . . . .
Doesn't mean there won't be a trade, of course, but the Dodger operation has more leaks than a Green Lake paddle boat. My guess is Ned shopped him at the GM meeting, didn't like what he heard and pulled him back til spring and a chance to show he's healthy. If he is, then he probably goes back on the block with a higher price tag.
Remember, too, that Dodgers would trade Kemp only for salary relief so they ain't gonna pay the whole freight charge. My bet is if they get Tanaka, they send Kemp packing. If not, they don't.
Speaking of Tanaka: I see no reason why the M's should do anything less than a full Cano. He is the other shoe. They oughta be just as aggressive as they were with Robbie. Even signing him, they still have a low payroll no matter what they pay and they still have a bushel full of trade assets.
And did somebody mention that Ackley is a possibility at 3B? Whew! I can't imagine they'd put the kid at his fourth position in five years. I also can't imagine that he could play there. If there's a trade, I think he's the one to go and that's fine by me although I still think he's going to be a batting champion. I think Ackley has more value to other clubs and Franklin more value to the M's. All he has ever done - except for six weeks last summer - is hit. He'd gonna hit. And he can play short, 2B, 3B and probably LF/CF.
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You have a ver legit point. To me, Gray just seems newer and therefore sexier. It's just like comparing Price to Felix. In their actual production, Price is about a half-step below, is a year older and found his current long-sustained level of production a calendar year later. However, because he had been in the league all of one full season before that, he's a bigger thing in the national media than Felix was the year before because he'd been in the league for 3.5 seasons already.
In comparing Pax to Gray you have a kid that had been K/9'ing between 9-13 at every level versus the "great-looking stuff, meh-resulting K-results" guy who exploded in AAA in 2013. Since Gray seemed to come out of nowhere, he's sexier.
On top of that, you probably have some of the issue of guys like Walker and Hultzen over-shadowing Paxton's own outstanding-ness.
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:: daps ::
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despite the acknowledgement of his talent he has never pitched in the postseason, on the big stage. From a national point of view he's outstanding but irrelevant. If Ernie Banks played for the New York Yankees he'd be known for a lot more than being a good player who said "Let's play two!"