.

Here is one argument against trading Taijuan for David Price:

• Taijuan will have an ERA of 4.00 to 5.00 next year
• That means, 15 to 35 runs worse than Price (which is 2-4 WAR after innings/relievers come in)
• Price will cost $29M more than Taijuan, the next two years, for only 4-8 WAR more than Taijuan
• But you could buy more than 4-8 WAR for $29M the next two years (e.g. Matt Garza)
• And that hasn't even touched the issue of Price's 2016-19
• QED

Based on that argument, presumably, USSM is running a poll.  75% of readers would reject a trade of Taijuan for Price, even steven.  (SSI readers are, I think, higher than that.  By the way, Dr. D is indeed one of the 75%.)

.

If Dr. D Can't Explain Something Simply, He Doesn't Understand It Well Enough, dept.

The above argument is logical, convincing, and wrong.

Every bullet point above applies even better to Erasmo Ramirez than it does to Taijuan Walker.  Erasmo has a career ERA of 4.25 in the major leagues, an xFIP of 4.03, and his earliest free agent season is 2019.

Erasmo's reasonable ERA range in 2014 is not 4.00 to 5.00.  He has so far been at 4.03, and of course he is expected (as all young pitchers are) to improve as he gains experience.

Yet:  there is nobody here who would not deal Erasmo Ramirez for David Price, even steven.  In that scenario, we completely lose all interest in the above argument.  ::PFFFT:: here's Erasmo.  Stow the net value shtick and gimme my Cy Young guy.

Our visceral reaction to an Erasmo/Price deal tips us off.  There is something wrong with the Net Value argument, somewhere.  QED.

.

Postscript

Why is that?  Why do we instinctively realize that an Erasmo/Price deal is "On," whatever the Net Value says?

We've got a cognitive dissonance.  We believe in our $/WAR logic, but Erasmo for Price, we would jump at it, even though the math would condemn us.

What is it, in our intuition, that causes this dissonance?

.........

Lots of things.  (1) When you deal away a cheap 2.0 WAR player, you have another one behind him.    (2) You can't sign David Price later if you don't trade for him now.  (3) Stars & Scrubs dynamics; the more 5-WAR players you have, the more $425k roster slots that can overperform.  (4) lots of stuff.

When we calculate Net Value on a rookie going out, we never remember to re-load with the Net Value of the rookie behind him.  There are only 5 rotation slots.  All "Net Value" on redundant pitchers --- > vanishes.  It is this never-ending pipeline of Free Young WAR that we overlook constantly.

We don't mind giving up Erasmo's free 2.5 WAR because we believe we can get that same 2.5 WAR from some other rookie. But!  On Taijuan it's different.  Subconsciously we're thinking 5 WAR on that dude.  But that is a different argument.

.........

I don't push back against these things because I have favorite targets.  It's just that the "absolutist" dollar/WAR paradigm is the dominant one in Seattle, and I think it's often too simplistic.  I think the general consensus is often wrong.  So I publish my understanding of the situation, and the readers can decide.

..........

The REAL reason, that we don't want to trade Taijuan Walker, is because we expect him to become a huge star.

::shrug:: let's be real, shall we?

Argue the "can't trade a cheap 4.50 ERA kid for David Price" and you're on a premise that will not hold up to scrutiny.

Argue that "I'm not giving up Taijuan Walker because in 2015, if not 2014, I think this kid is going to be pulling Cy Young votes" ... argue THAT and you're arguing a winner.  

BABVA,

Dr D