Over-under on wins: 107
streaking M's run their record to 6-1

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M's run totals seven games in:  9, 5, 12, 6, 6, 10, 6.  Which totals 54 runs, divided by 7? equals 7.7 per ballgame.  But which is more difficult?  Running seven straight games with 5+ runs, or averaging 8?  That was the question posed by the 2001 M's, who scored 5 runs in scads of games... 

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1927 New York Yankees' game run totals at the same pernt .... WOW!  NICE!  8, 10, 9, 6, 5, 14, 3.  Totalling 55 runs for 7.9 per ballgame.  Baseball history had no clue that the '27 Yankees' early blitzkrieg was an airhorn signalling their intent to finish 110-44 (109 even by Pythag), which woulda tied them with the '06 Cubs and '01 Mariners at 116 runs over a 162-game span.  

Of course you and I can only dream about the spectacle of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig facing off Chris Sale, but we know what would happen in a matchup with the '19 Mariners:   he’d be left for dead after four or five Back Leg Specials.

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1976 Big Red Machine game run totals after a week-plus:   11, 13, 9, 6, 5, 7, 11.  Wow ANOTHER epic blizzard of runs to open the season LOL.  Sixty-TWO runs in seven games?  Boy, did Dr. D ever have a boyhood hobby that made up for all the times he wound up in the hospital after backyard skateboard tricks.  So that's 8.9 runs per game.

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1930 Cardinals' first seven games:  8, 13, 0, 11, 4, 4, 8 on their way to 1,030 runs.  So that's 48 runs or 6.9 runs per game.

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The moral of the story is, of course, that if you spend the season's first week scoring 7 runs per game, especially against disproportionately good SP's, you're going down in history as one of the greatest ballclubs ever to take the field.  It's simple logic.

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I have reasonably and fairly made my case that the 2019 Mariners are a planet-busting juggernaut, but ... was still curious how the 2001 Mariners stacked up.  Hmmmmmm ... thusly:  5, 1, 10, 9, 6, 4, 5 = 40 runs, 5.7 average.

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WHY?

Once in a while Cindy goes into "Dr. D" mode during a game, which amuses her and annoys me greatly ... typing this sentence I see the implications of that sentence.  Anyway, tonight she axs me during the game, "To what do you attribute this scoring?"  

Goood!  Question!  First of all, Gentle Denizen, what's YOUR theory?  The Mariners as a team are now at about 300 plate appearances, which is supposed to be the number of trials ----- > at which batting average and OBP "stabilize."  Hey, I know how you guys think:  the team BABIP is only .293.  

On the other big luck stat, HR/f, they are only #7 in the majors at 17.9%.  That will drop to about 11%, but then again that 18% is supporting an 8 runs per game cash flow and nobody said the bare minimum for 107 wins was 8 runs per game.

RISP (.316/.423/.667) and "strand rate" also come into play.  "Strand rate" is number of runners left on base, normally 70%.  I'm sure the M's have a great strand rate.

....

So your theories are going to fall into, or fall outside of, or overlap with, LUCK and NON-LUCK theories.  Obviously the M's scoring will fall from 7.7 runs per game.  But this is a baseball world that predicted 3.7 for them ...

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The Mariners are #2 in "chase rate" so far.  Also, I've been simply amazed at how many barrelled-up balls have gone into the power alleys -- L and LCF for righties, R and RCF for lefties.  They are hot, but they are also locked in grimly, treating every down like it was 4th-and-inches.

The M's hitters are playing as well as they can possibly play, and while it lasts, this is one pokey who's going to enjoy it.

BABVA,

Dr D

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Comments

1

Wire-to-wire without concern for your jokes, memes and predictions.  Hungry and faithful in the team from looking around and seeing way more talent than any tanking they've ever understood.  Cheerfully resolved from the talk of stepping back and pundits opposition.

Dom Santa sending presents to fans, at least a few rows back.  Beckham leading that charge in competition for best start to a Mariners career ever.  Player of the week?  A walk a double and 2 RBI in 4 times at the plate since that was achieved.  I can't keep track of the hitting streaks.  I find I'm confusing them with the XBH streaks. Marco getting the win in his first how many appearances before any other outcome?  They're on pace and trend toward settng records for HR, wins and errors.

Cinderella shows up whenever she wants. 

2

I have four comments on why the Mariners are hitting so great.

1) Tim Laker is one of the most sophisticated representatives of the launch angle revolution. He fixed Mitch Haniger, then got hired by the Mariners, who then went out and acquired a dogpile full of players trying to be the next Haniger using the same changes or who already made that change but we're camouflaged by injury, lack odd playing time, or inexperience. Look at the lineup:

Smith: in the process of trying to elevate the ball more to go with his hit tool

Haniger

Santana: already a pitch stalker with high launch angles and exit velo...camouflaged by injury and all stars blocking him.

Bruce: vet filler

Encarnacion: pitch stalking vet filler

Beckham: started to break out after improving his launch angle and taking more pitches in 2017, then hurt his hip in 2018.

Narvaez: on base slap hitter who just improved his SLG by...you guessed it...higher launch angle

Healy: already had high launch angle, working on timing

Gordon: ah well...they can't all fit the mould.

2) They're hitting 50% of their balls in play into the air without increasing their pop up rate.

3) They're refusing to swing at balls. They're swing less, generally, most of them buying into the idea that they should only swing if it's in a narrow area they are sitting on. You can see it from the high looking K rate. About 27% of their strikeouts are looking. The result of fewer swings plus more aggressive swings is pressure over the starter, high pitch counts, and quality contact.

4) They're benefiting from facing good pitchers who are not in rhythm yet. Sale was clearly not at his best. Eduardo Rodriguez was nibbling way...way...WAY too much for his stuff...I thought Eovaldi and Porcello threw reasonably well and got smacked around anyway...but Oakland's guys were not sharp and we just faced a giant meatball. So...some if this is good timing.

I give a lot of credit to Dipoto for acquiring the players that fit a coaching pattern he was establishing with Laker and his big analytics push, and I give Laker a ton of credit as well.

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