King Leonydas' Glovework
the greatest pleasure in life is doing what they say you cannot do, Dept.

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Dr. D mentioned that he is failing to perceive Martin's defensive generalship.  Readers quite reasonably replied that Martin's jump on the ball must be DiMaggio-like.  Yes, no doubt.  Dr. D is saying "hey, I can't see it!" in the spirit of the boy at the ending of Polar Express unable to see Santa, or like the mom at Safeco (my kids' mom) can't see Hisashi Iwakuma's deception.

Certainly not saying, and don't believe, that outfielders need to dive for balls to win Gold Gloves.  My thing is to sit in section 339 and watch for marginal balls, one another OF *might* not have caught.  I have seen 0.  That is what is bemusing, considering that UZR has Leonydas at 41 runs saved on the season.  :- )

I do trust the numbers more than my little scouting observations, especially the M's internal numbers; that's the point ... never had *this much* disconnect between watching a guy and the numbers, FWIW. 

....

That said, John Dewan this morning the following numbers on Leonydas' fly balls gained and lost:

  • Shallow fly balls:  0 lost or gained, vs. average MLB center fielders
  • Deep fly balls:  -2 fewer balls caught, vs AVG
  • Medium fly balls:  -1 fewer balls caught
  • Total:  -3 balls caught, relative to average CF
  • Baserunner Kills:  +2 runners nailed off the basepaths (those, Dr. D has managed to notice)

If you go to Fangraphs' "Inside Edge" fielding, for some reason it doesn't have the 2016 breakdowns ("Remote" / "Unlikely" / "Likely" / etc) yet for this season.

The Fans' Scouting Report has him for average instincts, but above average (70) first step and speed, which I believe (but from which I have not yet perceived specific benefits).  It's got his legendary arm at 85, for comparison.

....

I dunno what's going on with Leonydas.  Would welcome a bit more detail on specific balls Martin has run down that Dexter Fowler or Mookie Betts (not Brad Miller) would have failed to get.  If somebody has an input like "I remember that second Cleveland game, I thought Napoli's ball into the left-center gap looked in there" I would enjoy hearing it.

About twice a homestand, an enemy batter would blast a shot off the right field wall and .... Ichiro would impossibly intersect the ball, catching it backhanded *in an area* the right fielder had no place being.  If there was any height at all under any foul ball down the first base line, any height at all, it was an out.  You enjoyed his range through that little transition between "Oh, NOooooo" and "Yeeeahhhh!"  Odd to me that I haven't seen even one such surprise out in CF.  :: shrug ::

Dewan's Team Runs Saved has us at -3 runs lost on the season, all because of shortstop.

Enjoy,

Dr D

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Comments

1

Was it last night that a blooper fell about 24 inches in front of Martin as he was coming in and toward RF?  Think it was.

Maybe he covered a ton of ground to get to that position (didn't dive, btw) and I just didn't compute that, sitting at home watching the tube.  That is certainly possible. 

But that one blooper for a single sure had me scratching my head about his rangey-glovey awesomeness. 

BTW, he's running a vR .409 BABIP (down from the high .500's) but he's OPS'ing just .686 against them.  In '13 and '14 the "good" Martin OPS'ed about .735 vs. RHP.  Did that with .336-ish BABIP. 

He's always been completely broke vs. MLB LHP.  He has to hit RHP an order or two better than Endy Chavez did (.680) or his career path is going to look a lot like Chavez's.

I'm pulling for the kid, but I'm not holding my breath, to tell you the truth.

A lefty on the mound tonight, but I would still rather see Martin than Aoki/Sardinas in CF.  Aoki isn't hitting them this year, himself, and he's no CF'er.  Heck, maybe Martin will bunt 4 times tonight!!  Dipoto and Servais discounted the CF vs. LHP concern when they structured the 25-Man, but it exists.  If you go with Aoki in CF and Cruz/Guti at the corners, you really have to play Sardinas at 1B and Lee as DH, or Lee at 1B and Clevenger as DH to avoid Lind, Martin or Smith swinging against the lefty.  Those guys have career vL OPS's of .587, .567 and .599.

It is a problem.  It would help if Martin really did have an Andruw Jones-ish glove in CF.  Maybe it shows up tonight.

2

OK all:  One of my favorite baseball quotes of all time is from that noted GM Benjamin Disraeli, who famously said, 
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics!"

Wait! Disraeli was a PM not a GM, wasn't he?  Humbug, I say!

Waitx2! Mark Twain was likely in error when he credited Disraeli with that quote, wasn't he!  Drats!!

Waitx3!  Then let's just go with this Twain-ian quote:  Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please.

Detective Sergeant Joe Friday would agree with that, wouldn't he? This morning that's good enough for me!

So just what do we have in the King of Spalding, besides an enfeebled bat at this current juncture (.132-.171-.237 over the last 14 days, with 17 K's in 41 PA's)?  What do the numbers tell us about his glovework, realizing that numbers can lie (see above) and that I can't find all the right numbers anyway?

B-R's numbers go something like this:  Over his career, Martin has had a Rf/9 of 2.93, while the MLB average has been 2.67.  Sticking by that number, Martin, in a 135 game season (about all he's got in him), would make about 35 more plays than an "average" CF'er.  No chopped liver there. (Martin is at 2.15 Rf/9 this year, go figure*).

It might be possible that a homer park, such as the one the Rangers play in, could have reduced the numerical impact of the King's glove.  B-R seems to indicate that such a conclusion doesn't have legs:  On the Advanced Fielding chart B-R indicates that 41% of the PA's with Martin on the field have ended in a FB in play.  The MLB average is 38%.  I have no clue how many of those FB's ended up somewhere near CF, but it does indicate that Martin's RF/9 hasn't been penalized by a bunch of FB's that limp over the Arlington CF fence.  It might actually indicate a slight Arlington-related tailwind to Martin's Rf, but it appears to be nominal if it exists and is likely neutral.

OK.  He makes a lot more plays in CF than your average Ackley (2.41); a bit more than Andruw Jones (2.76) and Mike Cameron (2.83), both noted glovemen; and almost exactly the same number as CF Franklin Gutierres (2.94).  Hey, Leather's-a-Poppin'!!!!

RF/9, btw, also includes OF assists.  Martin's numbers get a real bump here.  Over the past 3 seasons and this year's 17 games, he's had 9, 8, 10 and ('16) 2 "kills" with his arm.  According to the B-R numbers, he has erased 5.5% of baserunners trying to take the extra base.  The MLB average for a CF is 1.8%.  Jones killed 2.6%.  While in CF, Ichiro killed 2.4%.  Martin has a gun, guys.  The "Kill%" could possibly understate his arm's value because it doesn't indicate the number of baserunners who don't try to take the extra base.  However, the "Held %" number does:  Over his career, 46% of potential advancing baserunners have failed to do so.  The MLB average is 44%.  So it doesn't appear that a ton of base coaches are putting up the stop sign, fearing Martin's arm. Mostly he just throws out more guys who chug on.  BTW, Ichiro denied 48.6% the additional base.

So based on all that mumbo-jumbo (or damned lies), Martin seems to get to about 30 more balls and throw out 4 or 5 more runners than your average CF.

*Interestingly, this year he's getting to far fewer balls than the average, but we're talking a SSS.  Doc and I have commented that he doesn't seem to be passing the "eye" test this year.  There you go. 

With all of that known (or lied about), the big question still remains:  Can Martin's glovework make up for his lack of bat work?  His career OPS is 82: Ackley's is 94,  Guti's 95 and Cameron's was 106.  All in all, give me Cammy.  Vs. RHP's you could argue that Martin has been superior to  Guti.  He has the Rf advantage AND is a better bat vs RHP (.703 OPS vs .656/not couting park factors). Martin was, is and will likley remain a rusty gate vs LHP, however.   Vs. southpaws it is probable that his glove can not cover up for his batting deficiencies.  He needs a partner in CF crime.

Of course, over the past two seasons Martin hasn't been anywhere near his '13 and '14 vR batting performance.  Injury related?  Last year certainly, but this year?  

That 19th Century baseball genius BenJamin Disraeli once said, "As a general rule, the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information."

We aim to please.

Your milage may vary.  

3

Keith-O, if there were an M's chat room with just one specific screen name there, I'd log in ...

Keep it comin' bro :- )

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