.
"Is he worth the cash?" dominates the discussion. The 'net is buried in hair-fine calculations of Cano's ROI. Here's a sample, in which the author breathlessly counts down the year-by-year return, just pushing Cano across the finish line with a $2.5M surplus. Yippee! Congratulations Mariners! You win the deal!
Should this question dominate the discussion?
Let's suppose that, after 2013, the $240M has directly returned (say) $190M worth of Cano bases gained and bases lost. Does that resolve the indirect issues, the strategic issues, that a CEO must resolve?
.............
We are all thinking tactically -- thinking inside a very small box.
If we were simply playing fantasy baseball on Yahoo, and every MLB player was available at the supermarket -- pay your $6 fantasy for every 10 runs -- then yes!, this question would dominate. Just go shopping, get the most bases for the money, and you win ... under those circumstances, the question would dominate the discussion.
And this fantasy game assumes that there is no variability in performance to worry about. We are talking about buying 2013 stats for the money. Spend $100M to buy 2013 stats, put together the most WAR ... then it would make sense for the entire world to be laser-focused on Robinson Cano's bases-per-dollar projection.
There is a key premise here! People are thinking "If $240 million in Mariner money could return more bases, by purchasing three Corey Harts, then that's what the Mariners should have done." The paradigm reduces to that single issue!
.............
A $240M player contract is a strategic decision. These decisions MUST be made by executives, and must NOT be made by analysts at ground level. Any company that allowed worker bees to make global decisions, would quickly become extinct.
Howard Lincoln has to ask:
- How does my $2 billion TV deal relate to my need for celebrity ballplayers
- How does the 1st celebrity ballplayer in --- > affect my ability to attract more celebrity players
- How does this player affect my "CORPORATE BRAND"
- How does this deal affect my luxury boxes, my suites, my advertising, etc
- How does this deal affect my networking, my political connections, etc
.
Here is an article in which Jonah Keri at least begins to address some macro, CEO-level issues in his discussion of the deal. (Keri also recommends a Walker-plus for Price deal, by the way. And though I wouldn't make the deal, I think some people are forgetting about the injury rates on 19-year-old pitchers.)
.
.
Stars & Scrubs
Even on a semi-tactical level, you've got the issue of Stars & Scrubs dynamic -- and it's a dynamic that puts "PAID" to the question of Posnanski-style calculations, even without considering CEO problems.
Supposing that Cano returns $190M worth of bases for $240M ... but then his "player-pair" rookie teammates return $100M worth of bases for $10M in salary?
Like this:
| Player |
Annual salary |
WAR |
| Cano |
$25 |
6.0 |
| Rookie teammate |
-- |
2.0 |
| ... |
|
|
| Beltran |
$15 |
3.0 |
| Ellsbury |
$22 |
4.0 |
And yet, all anybody is doing is calculating these guys' wins-vs-dollars DIRECTLY gained. (Have you seen any article that credits Robinson Cano with the WAR that will be gained by a player-pair rookie? Or even mentions the concept?)
Look at the above chart again. What if Cano's rookie teammate does better than 2.0 WAR? With Stars & Scrubs you've got MUCH better opportunity for overperformance. A Carlos Beltran has a much harder time exceeding expectation than does a rookie.
That's a very simple example. The global principle is this: The more of your payroll you concentrate into the top 5* slots, the more ability you give yourself to be surprised by overperformance.
It's no accident that you have a lot of Verlander-Cabrera-Fielder type teams doing well every year.
.
Can't Make the Scene if you Don't Have the Green
I don't know where else to throw this in: Did you realize there are no marquee free agents next winter?
Even supposing that you want to aim at the year 2015 or 2016, well.... Robinson Cano will be a Mariner in those seasons. The only way to make that happen was to "sign him early." As Detroit signed Pudge coming off a 119-loss season, and then won 95 games in his 3rd year.
If the Mariners wanted to get into the game at all, now was the time. Cano's bases gained-and-lost -- a shade the better, a shade the worse -- the question is almost immaterial. If the Mariners wanted a keystone free agent, this was (obviously) the right guy.
.............
I've got nothing against asking, "How many bases will Robinson Cano return for the money." But we would gain in understanding, if we kept in mind just how small that question is.
Stars & Scrubs thinking could be wrong. It could! But if it is not, then Cano-to-the-Mariners is an unimpeachable decision. He's the ideal Mega Free Agent, both in theory and in the specific case of the next two winters.
There's an argument against Cano. It is the argument against the Stars & Scrubs paradigm itself. That's the macro argument to focus on, if you want to question the decision. Not bases per dollar.
Enjoy,
Jeff